Stock Market Prediction for Thursday, October 22, 2026

Stocks set to open lower as Meta, Tesla, IBM and Lam Research fall after earnings; Nasdaq futures -1.7%

Stocks are set to open lower on Thursday, October 22, 2026: at 9:05 AM ET S&P 500 futures were down 0.96% and Nasdaq-100 futures 1.72%. We estimate a 31% chance the S&P 500 closes above Wednesday's 7,757.17. Meta, Tesla, IBM and Lam Research fell after earnings, oil rose 2.5% to $99.62, and jobless claims dipped to 194,000.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $766.37 (SPY) at 9:30 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: S&P 500 futures were down 0.96% at 9:05 AM ET, pointing to an open about 1% below Wednesday's 7,757.17 close after a 1.3% gain this week. A green close would need the whole gap recovered while megacap tech is selling off, which we view as unlikely. Support 7,660 (Oct. 16 close) and 7,600; resistance 7,757 (Oct. 21 close) and 7,812 (Oct. 9 close) (S&P 500 index)
• Nasdaq-100: Nasdaq-100 futures were down 1.72%, the weakest of the four, with Meta (-2.8%), Tesla (-3.8%) and Lam Research (-9.7%) lower before the bell. The Nasdaq composite had gained 1.1% on Wednesday and 2.2% this week, so part of that rally is being given back. Nasdaq-100 futures 29,490 vs about 30,007 at the prior close; 30,000 is first resistance
• Dow Jones: Dow futures were down 0.53%, a smaller drop than the Nasdaq. IBM (-7.6% pre-market) weighs on the price-weighted index, while Procter & Gamble (+2.7%) and Honeywell's raised outlook should cushion it.
• Russell 2000: Russell 2000 futures were down 0.59%, as the selling centers on megacap tech rather than the domestic economy. Low jobless claims (194,000) support small caps, but a rising VIX (18.08) usually weighs on higher-risk stocks too.

Stocks to watch

• PG · Procter & Gamble

  +2.7% pre-market ($161.11)

  ▲Up 1.1%

  Catalyst: Fiscal Q1 sales and profit beat; full-year sales outlook raised

  Sales and profit beat estimates and the full-year sales outlook was raised to reflect the Thorne acquisition, with the EPS guidance midpoint held at $7.00. Staples tend to draw buyers on days when tech sells off.

  Risk: Part of the 2.7% gap could fade if the market steadies and money rotates back into tech.

  From $162.14 at 9:30 AM:high +2.90% at 12:57 PMclose +2.13%✓ Reached 1.1%

• VLO · Valero Energy

  +1.6% pre-market ($443.98)

  ▲Up 1.5%

  Catalyst: Q3 earnings and revenue beat; crude near $100

  Third-quarter earnings and revenue topped estimates, and December crude rose 2.5% to $99.62, which supports refiners on a day the broad market is weak.

  Risk: A reversal in oil prices or a deeper broad selloff could cap the move.

  From $439.55 at 9:30 AM:high 0.00% at 9:30 AMclose −3.02%✗ Missed 1.5% (0.00%)

• HON · Honeywell

  -0.2% pre-market (8:33 AM ET)

  ▲Up 1%

  Catalyst: Q3 beat; 2026 guidance raised

  Adjusted EPS of $2.27 topped estimates and Honeywell raised its full-year guidance for earnings, sales and free cash flow; a raise like this often draws buyers once the open settles.

  Risk: The muted pre-market reaction suggests the raise was partly expected, and a weak tape could hold the stock down.

  From $213.50 at 9:30 AM:high +2.37% at 3:59 PMclose +2.25%✓ Reached 1%

• TSLA · Tesla

  -3.8% pre-market ($371.80)

  ▼Down 2.5%

  Catalyst: Q3 profit shrank on flat revenue; 2026 capex cut to $20 billion

  Profit fell on flat revenue of $28.05 billion after the stock rose 3.4% into the report, and Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.7%, leaving room for more selling below the open.

  Risk: Tesla often rebounds sharply when the market steadies, so a bounce from the open is possible.

  From $374.29 at 9:30 AM:low −0.15% at 9:30 AMclose +0.08%✗ Missed 2.5% (+0.15%)

• LRCX · Lam Research

  -9.7% pre-market ($235.51)

  ▼Down 2.5%

  Catalyst: Supply chain constraints seen hindering fiscal Q2 sales

  Lam beat fiscal first-quarter estimates but said supply limits will hold back next-quarter sales, and chip equipment stocks are falling with it. Large gap-downs on guidance often set an early low below the open.

  Risk: After a near-10% gap, dip buyers may step in and lift the stock from the open.

  From $234.50 at 9:30 AM:low −2.91% at 3:47 PMclose −1.86%✓ Reached 2.5%

• META · Meta Platforms

  -2.8% pre-market ($678.00)

  ▼Down 1.5%

  Catalyst: Q3 beat, but a spending outlook of about $140 billion

  Revenue of $64.6 billion beat estimates and a 2-for-1 split was announced, but the AI spending outlook raised funding questions; with the Nasdaq weak, we expect a lower low after the open.

  Risk: The beat and the split could attract buyers on the dip.

  From $676.35 at 9:30 AM:low −5.42% at 3:23 PMclose −4.07%✓ Reached 1.5%

What is moving the market

• bearishMegacap earnings reverse lower. Meta beat with $64.6 billion of third-quarter revenue and announced a 2-for-1 split but fell 2.8% pre-market on a spending outlook of about $140 billion. Tesla fell 3.8% as profit shrank on flat revenue of $28.05 billion, and IBM fell 7.6% despite a beat.
• bearishLam Research hits chip stocks. Lam Research fell 9.7% to $235.51 before the bell after saying supply chain constraints will hold back fiscal second-quarter sales, even though fiscal first-quarter results beat estimates.
• bearishOil near $100 a barrel. December crude rose 2.54% to $99.62 by 9:05 AM ET. Refiners gain (Valero +1.6% after a beat), while American Airlines fell 4.5% to $11.68 on a weaker fourth-quarter outlook and high fuel costs.
• mixedJobless claims stay low. Initial claims were 194,000 in the week ended October 17, down from 199,000; continuing claims rose to 1.73 million from 1.71 million. A firm job market supports earnings but does little to strengthen the case for rate cuts.
• bullishDefensive earnings beats. Procter & Gamble rose 2.7% to $161.11 after fiscal first-quarter sales and profit beat estimates and it raised its sales outlook; Honeywell beat with adjusted EPS of $2.27 and raised its 2026 guidance.

Before the bell

S&P 500 futures

7,725.25-0.96%

Nasdaq-100 futures

29,490.25-1.72%

Dow futures

52,776-0.53%

Russell 2000 futures

2,777.70-0.59%

VIX

18.08+8.39%

10-year Treasury yield

5.04%-0.11 pt

WTI crude (Dec)

$99.62+2.54%

Gold

$4,096.70-1.28%

Bitcoin

$81,515-2.65%

As of 9:05 AM ET.

Today’s calendar

1. 8:30 AMInitial jobless claims (week ended Oct. 17) — Actual 194,000; prior 199,000. Continuing claims 1.73 million; prior 1.71 million
2. 9:30 AMUS stock market opens — Regular session 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM ET
3. 10:00 AMLeading economic index (September) — Month-over-month change
4. 10:30 AMEIA natural gas storage (weekly) — Weekly inventory change
5. 11:00 AMKansas City Fed manufacturing survey (October) — Regional factory activity
6. 4:00 PMEarnings after the close — Newmont, Western Digital, Deckers, Boston Beer, VeriSign, Bloom Energy, Boyd Gaming, RingCentral

Stocks hold losses after the open as Meta falls 6% and chips slide; Nasdaq -1.6%, S&P 500 -0.9%

Stocks opened lower on Thursday, October 22, 2026, and stayed there: at 10:12 AM ET the S&P 500 was down 0.89% and the Nasdaq 1.62% as Meta fell 6% and chip stocks slid. We estimate a 30% chance the S&P 500 closes above 7,757.17, confirming the 9 AM call (31%). Oil near $100 on Iran strike reports adds pressure.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $765.58 (SPY) at 10:20 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: The S&P 500 opened 0.81% lower at 7,694.62 and was down 0.89% at 7,688.20 at 10:12 AM ET, near the bottom of its 7,678–7,703 morning range. A green close would need a 0.9% rally while Meta and chip stocks keep falling, which we view as unlikely. Support 7,678 (morning low) and 7,660 (Oct. 16 close); resistance 7,703 (morning high) and 7,757 (Oct. 21 close) (S&P 500 index)
• Nasdaq-100: The Nasdaq-100 was down 1.81% at 29,281.57 at 10:15 AM ET, the weakest of the four, with Meta down 6% and chip equipment makers down 6% to 9%. Tesla's recovery to a small gain is the main offset. Support 29,262 (morning low); resistance 29,412 (morning high) and 29,823 (Oct. 21 close) (Nasdaq-100 index)
• Dow Jones: The Dow was down only 0.15% at 52,776 at 10:12 AM ET after recovering from a 52,531 low, helped by Procter & Gamble's 5% gain. IBM (-3.2%) and weak tech keep it slightly below Wednesday's close, a gap small enough to close. Support 52,531 (morning low); resistance 52,813 (morning high) and 52,856 (Oct. 21 close) (Dow industrials)
• Russell 2000: The Russell 2000 was nearly flat (-0.06%) and up 0.3% from its open, as the selling stays in megacap tech. Small caps can still turn green, but oil near $100 and a VIX near 18 limit the upside. Support 2,763 (morning low); resistance 2,781 (Oct. 21 close) (Russell 2000 index)

Stocks to watch

• META · Meta Platforms

  -6.1% to $655.34 at 10:12 AM ET (open $675.79, low $648.26)

  ▼Down 1.5%

  Catalyst: Q3 beat, but 2026 capex of $135–145 billion, a legal charge and a new nonvoting share class

  Meta has fallen 3% since the open, so sellers are still in control after the revenue beat, and the AI trade is under pressure across chip stocks. We estimate a new low below the morning's $648.26 is more likely than a full rebound.

  Risk: After a 6% drop, a bounce on the 2-for-1 split news or a broad market rebound could hold the stock above its morning low.

  From $653.39 at 10:20 AM:low −2.10% at 3:23 PMclose −0.69%✓ Reached 1.5%

• PG · Procter & Gamble

  +5.2% to $164.95 at 10:13 AM ET (open $162.14, high $166.72)

  ▲Up 1%

  Catalyst: Fiscal Q1 EPS of $2.00 beat the $1.89 consensus; sales outlook raised

  Procter & Gamble has risen 1.7% since the open and consumer staples (XLP +1.6%) are the strongest sector as money leaves technology. A retest of the $166.72 morning high is likely if the rotation holds.

  Risk: A rebound in tech could pull money back out of staples and cap the stock below its morning high.

  From $165.22 at 10:20 AM:high +0.99% at 12:57 PMclose +0.23%✗ Missed 1% (+0.99%)

• LMT · Lockheed Martin

  +6.7% to $588.67 at 10:13 AM ET (high $607.99, +10.2%)

  ▲Up 1.5%

  Catalyst: Q3 beat (EPS $7.97), raised 2026 outlook, record $292 billion backlog; Iran strike reports

  Lockheed beat with sales up 11% to $20.7 billion and raised its 2026 earnings and cash flow outlook, and reports of US and Israeli plans for renewed strikes on Iran support defense stocks. After giving back about 3% from the high, we expect buyers to return toward $597.

  Risk: Stocks that gap up 10% and then fade often keep fading, so the morning high may stand as the day's top.

  From $590.50 at 10:20 AM:high +0.20% at 3:51 PMclose −0.10%✗ Missed 1.5% (+0.20%)

• TSLA · Tesla

  +0.2% to $387.34 at 10:12 AM ET, up 3.6% from a $374.03 open

  ▲Up 2%

  Catalyst: Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.48 beat $0.44; analysts raise targets amid SpaceX merger talk

  Tesla erased a loss of more than 3% after the open as analysts raised price targets following the earnings beat and reported board-level merger talks with SpaceX. A reversal like this often draws more buyers, and a 2% gain to about $395 is within Tesla's usual daily range.

  Risk: If the Nasdaq-100 extends its 1.8% drop, Tesla could slip back toward its $374 open.

  From $386.39 at 10:20 AM:high +0.51% at 10:33 AMclose −3.06%✗ Missed 2% (+0.51%)

• CMCSA · Comcast

  +4.7% to $23.12 at 10:15 AM ET, at the day's high

  ▲Up 1.2%

  Catalyst: Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.07 beat estimates; revenue of $29.3 billion in line

  Comcast rose 3.6% from its $22.31 open to a new high after the earnings beat, moving past early worries about broadband subscriber losses, and telecom and media names are drawing money from technology (AT&T +2.9%). We estimate a further gain to about $23.40.

  Risk: Broadband subscriber losses were the main concern before the open and could bring sellers back.

  From $23.19 at 10:20 AM:high +0.43% at 10:28 AMclose −1.51%✗ Missed 1.2% (+0.43%)

What is moving the market

• bearishMeta and chip stocks sink the Nasdaq. Meta fell 6.1% to $655.34 by 10:12 AM ET as 2026 capital spending of $135–145 billion and a new nonvoting share class outweighed a revenue beat. Lam Research fell 8.5% on supply constraints, Applied Materials and KLA about 6% and Nvidia about 2.7%; the technology ETF XLK was down 2.2%.
• bearishOil near $100 on Iran strike reports. December WTI crude rose 2% to $99.04 and Brent topped $111 after The New York Times reported US and Israeli plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the Nov. 3 midterms. Energy stocks fell anyway: the energy ETF XLE was down 1.7% and Valero 3.1%.
• mixedMoney rotates into defensive stocks. Consumer staples (XLP +1.6%) and utilities (XLU +0.8%) rose, led by Procter & Gamble (+5.2%) after a beat, and the Russell 2000 was nearly flat. The selling is concentrated in megacap tech, which limits the damage to the Dow (-0.15%).
• bullishDefense earnings lift Lockheed. Lockheed Martin rose as much as 10.2% to $607.99 after EPS of $7.97, sales up 11% to $20.7 billion, a raised 2026 outlook and a record $292 billion backlog; Northrop Grumman rose 3% and RTX 2% by 9:47 AM ET.
• mixedLower yields, higher volatility. The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.03% at about 10:12 AM ET, down 0.12 point on the day, while the VIX rose 7.9% to 17.99 and gold fell 2% to $4,067.

The first 30 minutes

S&P 500

7,688.20-0.89% (-0.08% since the open)

Nasdaq composite

26,269.54-1.62% (-0.15% since the open)

Nasdaq-100

29,281.57-1.81% (-0.08% since the open)

Dow Jones

52,776.24-0.15% (-0.02% since the open)

Russell 2000

2,779.41-0.06% (+0.31% since the open)

S&P 500 range since the open

7,678–7,703-1.01% to -0.70%

VIX

17.99+7.87%

10-year Treasury yield

5.03%-0.12 pt

Sectors

Staples lead, tech lagsXLP +1.57%, XLK -2.21%

As of 10:14 AM ET.

Still to come today

1. 10:30 AMEIA natural gas storage (weekly) — Weekly inventory change
2. 11:00 AMKansas City Fed manufacturing survey (October) — Regional factory activity
3. 4:00 PMUS stock market closes — Regular session ends; a normal full trading day
4. 4:00 PMEarnings after the close — Newmont, Western Digital, Deckers, Boston Beer, VeriSign, Bloom Energy, Boyd Gaming, RingCentral

1. How major US stock indexes fared Wednesday 10/21/2026 — La Nación (AP)
2. E-Mini S&P 500 Dec 26 (ES=F) — Yahoo Finance
3. Meta Platforms (META) stock price and news — Yahoo Finance
4. Tesla (TSLA) stock price and news — Yahoo Finance
5. IBM stock price and news — Yahoo Finance
6. Lam Research (LRCX) stock price and news — Yahoo Finance
7. Procter & Gamble (PG) stock price and news — Yahoo Finance
8. Valero Energy (VLO) stock price and news — Yahoo Finance
9. Honeywell (HON) stock price and news — Yahoo Finance
10. American Airlines (AAL) stock price and news — Yahoo Finance
11. Economic calendar, October 22, 2026 — Yahoo Finance
12. Weekly event calendar: 10/19/2026 - 10/23/2026 — Investrade
13. Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq tumble as oil climbs, investors weigh Tesla, Meta earnings — Yahoo Finance
14. Stock Market Today: Tech Stocks Lead Futures Sharply Lower; Oil Prices Surge on Middle East Escalations — Investopedia (Yahoo Finance)
15. Earnings live updates: All eyes on Musk and Meta as Q3 earnings roll on — Yahoo Finance
16. Lockheed Martin Rises 9% as Record Backlog Lifts Outlook; RTX Gains 2%, Northrop Grumman Advances 3% — Yahoo Finance
17. S&P 500 (^GSPC) — Yahoo Finance
18. NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) — Yahoo Finance
19. NASDAQ-100 (^NDX) — Yahoo Finance
20. Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) — Yahoo Finance
21. Russell 2000 (^RUT) — Yahoo Finance
22. Comcast (CMCSA) stock price and news — Yahoo Finance

• Every trading day at 9:00 AM ET, before the 9:30 AM open, we read index futures, overnight markets, economic data, earnings and the news, and publish the chance that the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Dow and Russell 2000 close higher, the expected move to the day’s high and low, and stocks with a catalyst that day.
• At 10:00 AM ET a second call follows, from the same research plus how the first 30 minutes traded — to see how much a forecast improves once the market is open.
• Each call is measured from the moment it could be acted on: the 9 AM call from the 9:30 AM open, the 10 AM call from the minute it went public. “To the high” is the rise from that price to the session’s highest price; “to the close”, to the closing price.
• A call is “up” at 55% or more and “down” at 45% or less; in between it is not scored. Direction is right when the S&P 500 ETF’s close beats (or trails) the previous close. A stock reaches its target when its move from the measuring point to the high — to the low for a “down” call — is at least the target.
• Prices are regular-session prices of the index ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM) and the stocks. Results are live while the market trades and final after the close; every past day stays online with its results.