Stock Market Prediction for Friday, October 23, 2026

Stocks set to open lower as oil tops $100; Dow futures -0.8%, Crown Castle jumps 14% on SpaceX report

Stocks are set to open lower Friday, October 23, 2026: at 9:05 AM ET S&P 500 futures were down 0.44% and Dow futures 0.83%. We estimate a 38% chance the S&P 500 closes above Thursday's 7,663.43. Oil above $100 and a VIX above 20 weigh on stocks, while chip stocks try to rebound. Consumer sentiment is due at 10 AM.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $759.90 (SPY) at 9:30 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: S&P 500 futures were down 0.44% at 9:05 AM ET, pointing to an open about 0.4% below Thursday's 7,663.43 close after a 1.2% drop. A green close would need the gap recovered while oil holds above $100 and the VIX is above 20, which we view as less likely than not. Support 7,600; resistance 7,663 (Oct. 22 close) and 7,757 (Oct. 21 close) (S&P 500 index)
• Nasdaq-100: Nasdaq-100 futures were down only 0.25% after the Nasdaq composite fell 2.6% on Thursday, the smallest drop of the four, as chip stocks try to rebound (SK Hynix +4%, the memory ETF DRAM +2.5%). A bounce in Nvidia and other chip makers is the main path to a green close. Nasdaq-100 futures 29,069 vs 29,142 at Thursday's settlement; 29,000 is first support
• Dow Jones: Dow futures were down 0.83%, the weakest of the four, after the Dow held flat on Thursday (+11.89 points to 52,867.98) and gained 1.7% this week. Verizon, a Dow member, was sharply lower before the bell on a report that SpaceX is seeking US cell sites. Support 52,500; resistance 52,868 (Oct. 22 close) (Dow industrials)
• Russell 2000: Russell 2000 futures were down 0.60% after small caps rose 2.3% this week through Thursday. Oil above $100 and a VIX up 6% usually weigh on smaller, higher-risk companies. Resistance 2,784 (Oct. 22 close) (Russell 2000 index)

Stocks to watch

• CCI · Crown Castle

  +14.2% pre-market ($90.05)

  ▲Up 1.5%

  Catalyst: Reported talks with SpaceX, which is seeking about 80,000 US cell sites

  Bloomberg reported that SpaceX is seeking at least 80,000 US cell sites, and Crown Castle is reportedly in talks with it; a buyer of that size could change how the tower owner is valued. News-driven gaps in large caps often extend in the first hour as funds reposition.

  Risk: After a 14% gap and with no deal confirmed, profit-taking could set the day's high near the open.

  From $91.02 at 9:30 AM:high +0.47% at 9:30 AMclose −5.55%✗ Missed 1.5% (+0.47%)

• RNG · RingCentral

  +12.9% pre-market ($89.69)

  ▲Up 2%

  Catalyst: Q3 results; 2026 revenue, margin and free cash flow outlook raised

  Third-quarter revenue reached $676 million, with subscriptions up about 6% to $653 million, and RingCentral raised its 2026 outlook for revenue, margins and free cash flow (now $615–625 million). A beat with raised guidance is the strongest same-day driver, so we expect buyers after the open.

  Risk: Pre-market volume was thin, so part of the 12.9% gap could fade once regular trading begins.

  From $90.98 at 9:30 AM:high +7.87% at 9:32 AMclose −8.34%✓ Reached 2%

• NVDA · Nvidia

  Edging higher pre-market after a 4.4% drop to $212.21 on Thursday

  ▲Up 1.5%

  Catalyst: Chip stocks rebound after Thursday's AI sell-off

  Nvidia fell 4.4% on Thursday as worries about AI financing costs hit chip stocks, but SK Hynix rose 4% and the memory ETF DRAM 2.5% this morning. A rebound day in semiconductors would likely lift Nvidia 1.5% above its open.

  Risk: If the AI sell-off resumes, Nvidia could set new lows below the open.

  From $210.99 at 9:30 AM:high +1.36% at 10:52 AMclose −0.01%✗ Missed 1.5% (+1.36%)

• SPCX · SpaceX

  +1.5% pre-market after a 9% drop to $144.75 on Thursday

  ▲Up 2.5%

  Catalyst: Report it is seeking at least 80,000 US cell sites; JPMorgan says no equity raise is planned

  SpaceX rose 1.5% pre-market after Bloomberg reported it is seeking at least 80,000 US cell sites, and JPMorgan's Doug Anmuth said the company is not considering raising equity. After a 9% drop, a 2.5% rise from the open is within its usual daily range.

  Risk: The stock is volatile, and a weak Nasdaq could push it back toward Thursday's low.

  From $147.93 at 9:30 AM:high +1.23% at 10:39 AMclose −0.30%✗ Missed 2.5% (+1.23%)

• VZ · Verizon

  Sharply lower pre-market (no figure confirmed)

  ▼Down 1.2%

  Catalyst: Report that SpaceX is seeking at least 80,000 US cell sites

  A SpaceX ground network built on tens of thousands of cell sites would add a well-funded wireless competitor, and AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile all traded sharply lower before the bell. With Dow futures down 0.83%, we expect a low at least 1.2% below the open.

  Risk: Telecom stocks often draw dip buyers after a news-driven gap, so the open could be the day's low.

  From $43.60 at 9:30 AM:low −0.39% at 9:30 AMclose +2.43%✗ Missed 1.2% (+0.39%)

What is moving the market

• bearishOil above $100 on Iran threats. December WTI crude rose 1.49% to $100.95 a barrel by 9:05 AM ET, near a five-month high, and Brent was at its highest since early May after Iran threatened to strike airports and other civilian targets in neighboring countries if the US and Israel resume strikes.
• mixedTech sell-off pauses. On Thursday the Nasdaq fell 2.6% to 26,008.86 and the S&P 500 1.2% to 7,663.43, with Nvidia down 4.4% and Intel 8%. This morning SK Hynix rose 4% after dropping a planned US offering of its Solidigm unit and the memory ETF DRAM rose 2.5% after a 7% fall, holding Nasdaq-100 futures to a 0.25% loss.
• mixedSpaceX cell-site report hits telecoms. Bloomberg reported that SpaceX is seeking at least 80,000 US cell sites; Crown Castle, reportedly in talks with SpaceX, rose 14.2% to $90.05 before the bell, while AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile traded sharply lower.
• bullishFed hike odds fall before next week's meeting. The Fed meets on October 28, and fed funds futures put the chance of a rate hike at about 5%, down from 15% earlier this week and 37% at the end of September. The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.96% after its biggest one-day drop in more than two years on Thursday.
• mixedMixed earnings after the close. Western Digital, Newmont and Bloom Energy fell 1.5% to 2.5% pre-market after their reports, while RingCentral rose 12.9% after raising its 2026 outlook and American Express edged higher after its results. The VIX rose 6.3% to 20.23.

Before the bell

S&P 500 futures

7,670.50-0.44%

Nasdaq-100 futures

29,069.00-0.25%

Dow futures

52,626-0.83%

Russell 2000 futures

2,779.30-0.60%

VIX

20.23+6.31%

10-year Treasury yield

4.96%+0.01 pt

WTI crude (Dec)

$100.95+1.49%

Gold

$4,040.50-0.49%

Bitcoin

$81,547-0.08%

As of 9:05 AM ET.

Today’s calendar

1. 9:30 AMUS stock market opens — Regular session 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM ET
2. 10:00 AMUniversity of Michigan consumer sentiment (October, final) — Prior 46.3
3. 1:00 PMBaker Hughes rig count (weekly) — US oil and gas drilling rigs
4. 4:00 PMUS stock market closes — Regular session ends; a normal full trading day. The Fed's next decision is on October 28

Stocks stay lower after the open: Dow -1.3% and S&P 500 -0.5% as oil tops $102; Nasdaq near flat

Stocks are lower after the open on Friday, October 23, 2026: at 10:13 AM ET the S&P 500 was down 0.50% and the Dow 1.28%, with the Nasdaq nearly flat. We estimate a 33% chance the S&P 500 closes above Thursday's 7,663.43, confirming the 9 AM down call (38%). Oil above $102 weighs; consumer sentiment held at 48.0.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $759.17 (SPY) at 10:20 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: The S&P 500 opened 0.34% lower at 7,637.18, which stayed the morning high, and slipped to 7,625.41 (-0.50%) by 10:13 AM ET. A green close needs a 0.5% rally while industrials, financials and health care fall, which we view as unlikely. Support 7,615 (morning low) and 7,600; resistance 7,637 (today's open) and 7,663 (Oct. 22 close) (S&P 500 index)
• Nasdaq-100: The Nasdaq Composite opened 0.44% lower but climbed to 25,992.96 (-0.06%) by 10:13 AM ET and briefly traded above Thursday's close, with tech the second-best sector (+0.5%). Holding that rebound after Thursday's 2.6% drop is the path to a green close. Support 25,866 (morning low); resistance 26,009 (Oct. 22 close) and 26,021 (morning high) (Nasdaq Composite)
• Dow Jones: The Dow opened 0.32% lower but slid to 52,189.53 (-1.28%) by 10:13 AM ET, at its low, as Caterpillar fell 3.2%, American Express 2.9%, Home Depot 2.7% and Honeywell 2.6%. Recovering 1.3% by the close would be rare. Support 52,000; resistance 52,697 (today's open) and 52,868 (Oct. 22 close) (Dow industrials)
• Russell 2000: The Russell 2000 was down 0.64% at 2,766.29 at 9:58 AM ET after opening at 2,775.95, its morning high. Oil above $102 and a VIX above 20 usually weigh on smaller, higher-risk companies. Support 2,759 (morning low); resistance 2,776 (today's open) and 2,784 (Oct. 22 close) (Russell 2000 index)

Stocks to watch

• CCI · Crown Castle

  +12.0% at $88.32 (10:14 AM), off a $91.45 high

  ▲Up 1.5%

  Catalyst: Report that SpaceX, seeking at least 80,000 US cell sites, is in talks with Crown Castle

  Crown Castle had traded 4.2 million shares by 10:14 AM ET, already above its 4.0 million daily average, as funds price in a possible large new tenant. After easing from $91.45 to $88.32, a move back to about $89.65 (+1.5%) stays inside the morning range.

  Risk: No deal is confirmed, and the fade from the open could continue if no confirmation follows.

  From $88.25 at 10:20 AM:high +0.76% at 10:27 AMclose −2.58%✗ Missed 1.5% (+0.76%)

• CVX · Chevron

  +1.8% at $230.71, the Dow's best performer

  ▲Up 1%

  Catalyst: WTI crude up 3% to about $102 a barrel on Iran threats

  Energy is the best sector (+1.6%) as December WTI rose 3% to about $102 a barrel, near a five-month high, after Iran threatened strikes on civilian targets in neighboring countries. With oil still rising, we expect Chevron to gain another 1% from the 10 AM price.

  Risk: Oil could drop quickly on any sign of calmer US-Iran talks.

  From $231.04 at 10:20 AM:high +1.17% at 3:43 PMclose +0.94%✓ Reached 1%

• NVDA · Nvidia

  +0.2% at $212.70 (10:14 AM), up from a $210.18 low

  ▲Up 1.2%

  Catalyst: Chip stocks steady after Thursday's AI sell-off

  Nvidia recovered from $210.18 to $212.70 as the Nasdaq Composite erased most of its 0.44% opening loss and tech became the second-best sector. A rebound day in chips after Thursday's 4.4% drop would likely lift it to about $215.

  Risk: If the AI sell-off resumes, Nvidia could fall back below its morning low.

  From $212.12 at 10:20 AM:high +0.82% at 10:52 AMclose −0.54%✗ Missed 1.2% (+0.82%)

• SPCX · SpaceX

  +2.2% at $147.99 (10:14 AM), near a $148.59 high

  ▲Up 2.5%

  Catalyst: Report it is seeking at least 80,000 US cell sites; JPMorgan says no equity raise is planned

  SpaceX traded near its morning high on 32.8 million shares after Bloomberg reported it is seeking at least 80,000 US cell sites, and JPMorgan's Doug Anmuth wrote that it is not considering raising equity. After a 9% drop on Thursday, a 2.5% rise is within its usual daily range.

  Risk: The stock is volatile: if tech turns lower again, it could slip back toward the $144.09 morning low.

  From $147.65 at 10:20 AM:high +1.42% at 10:39 AMclose −0.11%✗ Missed 2.5% (+1.42%)

• VZ · Verizon

  -3.2% at $43.76 (10:14 AM), low $43.56

  ▼Down 1%

  Catalyst: Report that SpaceX is seeking at least 80,000 US cell sites

  A SpaceX ground network built on tens of thousands of cell sites would add a well-funded wireless competitor; Verizon fell 3.2% and AT&T 5.6% after the report. With the S&P 500 down 0.5%, we expect a low about 1% below the 10 AM price, under the morning low.

  Risk: Telecom stocks often draw dip buyers after news-driven drops, and Verizon was already bouncing off its low.

  From $43.83 at 10:20 AM:low −0.47% at 10:38 AMclose +1.91%✗ Missed 1% (+0.47%)

What is moving the market

• bearishDow slides on industrials and financials. The Dow went from a 0.32% opening loss to -1.28% (52,189.53) by 10:13 AM ET. Caterpillar fell 3.2%, American Express 2.9% despite a third-quarter beat, Home Depot 2.7%, Honeywell 2.6% and 3M 2.6%; the industrials sector fund was down 2.1% and financials 1.2%.
• bearishOil above $102 on Iran threats. December WTI crude rose 3.0% to $102.45 a barrel by about 10:12 AM ET, near a five-month high, after Iran threatened to strike airports and other civilian targets in neighboring countries if the US and Israel resume strikes. Energy was the best sector (+1.6%), led by Chevron (+1.8%).
• bullishTech holds steady after Thursday's rout. The Nasdaq Composite opened 0.44% lower but was down just 0.06% at 25,992.96 by 10:13 AM ET, briefly topping Thursday's close, after a 2.6% drop on Thursday. Tech rose 0.5%, Microsoft 0.4% and Nvidia 0.2%.
• mixedSentiment steady, inflation expectations up. The University of Michigan's final October consumer sentiment index was 48.0, little changed from 48.1 in September and down from 53.6 a year earlier. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7% from 4.6% and long-run expectations to 3.5% from 3.4%.
• mixedSpaceX cell-site report moves telecoms and towers. Bloomberg reported that SpaceX is seeking at least 80,000 US cell sites. Crown Castle, reportedly in talks with SpaceX, was up 12.0% at $88.32 after opening at $91.02, while Verizon fell 3.2% and AT&T 5.6%.
• bullishFed hike odds low before next week's meeting. Fed funds futures put the chance of a rate hike at the Fed's October 28 meeting at about 5%, down from 15% earlier this week and 37% at the end of September. The 10-year Treasury yield was about 4.98%, holding below 5%.

The first 30 minutes

S&P 500

7,625.41-0.50% (-0.15% since the open)

Nasdaq Composite

25,992.96-0.06% (+0.38% since the open)

Dow industrials

52,189.53-1.28% (-0.96% since the open)

Russell 2000 (9:58 AM)

2,766.29-0.64% (-0.35% since the open)

S&P 500 range since the open

7,615.69–7,637.48Opened at 7,637.18 (-0.34%)

VIX

20.14+5.84%

10-year Treasury yield

4.98%+0.03 pt

WTI crude (Dec)

$102.45+3.00%

Sectors: leading / lagging

Energy +1.6%, tech +0.5%Industrial -2.1%, health -1.2%

As of 10:13 AM ET.

Still to come today

1. 10:00 AMUniversity of Michigan consumer sentiment (October, final) — Actual 48.0; September 48.1. Year-ahead inflation expectations 4.7%, long-run 3.5%
2. 1:00 PMBaker Hughes rig count (weekly) — US oil and gas drilling rigs
3. 4:00 PMUS stock market closes — Regular session ends; a normal full trading day. The Fed's next decision is on October 28

1. Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures slip after sharp tech sell-off — Yahoo Finance
2. Stock Market Today: Futures Head Lower at End of Wild Week as Oil Prices Rise Further on Middle East Tensions; Chip Stocks Rebound — Investopedia (Yahoo Finance)
3. How major US stock indexes fared Thursday 10/22/2026 — La Nación (AP)
4. E-Mini S&P 500 Dec 26 (ES=F) — Yahoo Finance
5. Nasdaq 100 Dec 26 (NQ=F) — Yahoo Finance
6. Mini Dow Jones Indus. Dec 26 (YM=F) — Yahoo Finance
7. E-mini Russell 2000 Dec 26 (RTY=F) — Yahoo Finance
8. Markets: stocks, futures, rates, commodities — Yahoo Finance
9. Stock market news — Yahoo Finance
10. Today's Premarket Stock Movers — StockAnalysis
11. RingCentral third quarter 2026 results (Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1) — RingCentral
12. S&P 500 (^GSPC) — Yahoo Finance
13. NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) — Yahoo Finance
14. Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) — Yahoo Finance
15. Russell 2000 (^RUT) — Yahoo Finance
16. Surveys of Consumers — University of Michigan
17. Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks — StockAnalysis
18. Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) — Yahoo Finance
19. American Express Company (AXP) — Yahoo Finance
20. Crown Castle Inc. (CCI) — Yahoo Finance
21. Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) — Yahoo Finance

• Every trading day at 9:00 AM ET, before the 9:30 AM open, we read index futures, overnight markets, economic data, earnings and the news, and publish the chance that the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Dow and Russell 2000 close higher, the expected move to the day’s high and low, and stocks with a catalyst that day.
• At 10:00 AM ET a second call follows, from the same research plus how the first 30 minutes traded — to see how much a forecast improves once the market is open.
• Each call is measured from the moment it could be acted on: the 9 AM call from the 9:30 AM open, the 10 AM call from the minute it went public. “To the high” is the rise from that price to the session’s highest price; “to the close”, to the closing price.
• A call is “up” at 55% or more and “down” at 45% or less; in between it is not scored. Direction is right when the S&P 500 ETF’s close beats (or trails) the previous close. A stock reaches its target when its move from the measuring point to the high — to the low for a “down” call — is at least the target.
• Prices are regular-session prices of the index ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM) and the stocks. Results are live while the market trades and final after the close; every past day stays online with its results.