Stock Market Prediction for Monday, October 26, 2026

Stocks set to open higher as oil retreats on Iran talks; AI funding worries and Fed week cap gains

Stocks are set to open higher Monday, with S&P 500 futures up about 0.4% as oil fell on Iran diplomacy. We estimate a 58% chance the S&P 500 closes above Friday's close. Fresh worries about AI funding hit CoreWeave and Nebius, and the Fed decision Wednesday, PCE inflation Thursday and Big Tech earnings could cap gains.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $762.25 (SPY) at 9:30 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: Futures are up about 0.4% as oil retreats, a gap that usually favors an up close. Two straight weekly losses and Fed and inflation risk later this week argue against a large rally. Support near 7,660 (Friday's settle); resistance 7,700 (December S&P 500 futures)
• Nasdaq-100: Nasdaq-100 futures lead at about +0.6% and Tesla is up on an upgrade, but AI infrastructure stocks are sliding again and Meta is lower after its $35 billion stock offering. Alphabet and Microsoft report Wednesday.
• Dow Jones: Dow futures are up about 0.4%. Lower oil helps transport and consumer names, and Dow member Verizon reported third-quarter results before the open.
• Russell 2000: Russell 2000 futures gain only about 0.2%. Small caps are the most exposed to a 10-year yield near 5% and to the chance of another Fed hike by December.

Stocks to watch

• TSLA · Tesla

  +1.9% pre-market

  ▲Up 2%

  Catalyst: Barclays upgrade to Overweight from Equal Weight

  A major-bank upgrade on one of the most traded stocks tends to draw buyers after the open, and Nasdaq-100 futures are the strongest of the major indexes. Tesla reported last week, so the upgrade is the fresh news today.

  Risk: The recent sell-off in growth and AI-linked stocks could fade the early gain.

  From $383.83 at 9:30 AM:high +3.50% at 1:13 PMclose +2.03%✓ Reached 2%

• CRWV · CoreWeave

  -5.4% pre-market

  ▼Down 3%

  Catalyst: Elon Musk said capital markets have largely closed to companies without substantial revenue outside AI data centers

  The comment goes to the core worry about how AI data-center buildouts get financed, and the stock has already lost more than 30% in October. Weak stocks with fresh negative news often extend losses after the open.

  Risk: After a 30% monthly drop, short covering could spark a sharp rebound.

  From $51.96 at 9:30 AM:low −1.39% at 9:30 AMclose +6.22%✗ Missed 3% (+1.39%)

• NBIS · Nebius Group

  -3.9% pre-market

  ▼Down 3%

  Catalyst: Same Musk funding comment hits AI cloud peers

  Nebius carries the same financing worry as CoreWeave and has also lost more than 30% in October. Momentum in the AI infrastructure group is negative, with IREN and Applied Digital also down more than 3% before the bell.

  Risk: Oversold AI infrastructure stocks can rebound quickly if the broad market rallies.

  From $153.96 at 9:30 AM:low −2.91% at 9:35 AMclose −0.45%✗ Missed 3% (+2.91%)

What is moving the market

• bullishOil retreats on Iran diplomacy. Brent fell more than 6% to about $110 a barrel from $117.4 at Friday's close, and December WTI was down about 2% near $101, after Qatari mediators traveled to Tehran on Sunday in coordination with Washington.
• bearishFresh AI funding worries. CoreWeave fell 5.4% and Nebius 3.9% before the bell after Elon Musk said money has largely dried up for companies without substantial non-data-center revenue; both are down more than 30% in October.
• mixedFed decision Wednesday, yields near 5%. A pause is widely expected after September's rate hike, but traders still see a December hike as possible and at least two quarter-point hikes by mid-2027, per LSEG data. The 10-year yield is about 4.99%.
• mixedBusiest earnings week of the season. About one-third of S&P 500 companies report this week, including Alphabet and Microsoft on Wednesday and Amazon. Meta disappointed last week with a higher AI spending forecast and a $35 billion stock offering.
• mixedPCE inflation and GDP on Thursday. September PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and third-quarter GDP (3.2% growth expected) arrive Thursday, ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.
• bearishTwo straight weekly losses. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell for a second week, and RBC says the 10 largest S&P 500 stocks are faltering again and weighing on the index.

Before the bell

S&P 500 futures

7,687.00+0.36%

Nasdaq-100 futures

29,301.00+0.63%

Dow futures

52,612.00+0.42%

Russell 2000 futures

2,788.90+0.16%

VIX

19.24-1.08%

10-year Treasury yield

4.99%-0.2 bp

WTI crude (Dec)

$101.09-2.11%

Gold

$4,031.00+0.58%

Bitcoin

$80,026-0.30%

As of 9:12 AM ET.

Today’s calendar

1. 8:30 AMChicago Fed National Activity Index (September) — Forecast -0.1; prior -0.04
2. 8:30 AMVerizon third-quarter results webcast — Results posted at 7:00 AM ET; Verizon is a Dow component
3. 9:30 AMUS stock market opens — Regular session until 4:00 PM ET
4. 10:30 AMDallas Fed manufacturing survey (October) — Prior 9.8
5. 4:00 PMMarket close; more earnings — Cadence Design Systems, Nucor, Welltower, Public Storage and Amkor are scheduled to report today; Alphabet and Microsoft follow on Wednesday

Stocks hold opening gains as oil eases and Tesla jumps 5%; S&P 500 up 0.4% at 10 AM

Stocks held early gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.4% at 10 AM as oil eased and Tesla jumped 5.5% on an upgrade. We now estimate a 64% chance the S&P 500 closes above Friday's close, up from 58% at 9 AM, confirming the morning call. Weak Meta and Alphabet shares and Wednesday's Fed decision are the main risks.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $765.49 (SPY) at 10:19 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: The S&P 500 opened 0.2% higher and built that to 0.4% by 10 AM, holding in the upper half of its 7,640–7,669 opening range with 10 of 11 sector funds up and the VIX down 4.7%. A gain of that size at 10 AM more often than not lasts to the close. Support 7,640 (the open and morning low) and 7,624 (Friday's close); resistance 7,669 (the morning high) and 7,700 (S&P 500 index)
• Nasdaq-100: The Nasdaq-100 fund was up 0.3% at 10 AM as Tesla, Nvidia and Micron rose, but Meta fell 1.8% and Alphabet 0.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite was flat since the open. Alphabet and Microsoft report Wednesday.
• Dow Jones: The Dow was up 175 points, or 0.34%, at 10 AM with help from lower oil. Dow member Verizon fell 2.9% despite raising its 2026 outlook, a drag on the index.
• Russell 2000: Small caps led at 10 AM, with the Russell 2000 up 0.46% and at its morning high as the 10-year yield slipped to 4.98%. A yield near 5% and the chance of another Fed hike remain the main threat.

Stocks to watch

• TSLA · Tesla

  +5.5% at 10 AM ($392.83)

  ▲Up 1.5%

  Catalyst: Barclays upgrade to Overweight, target raised to $450 from $370

  Tesla stretched a 2% pre-market gain to 5.5% in the first half hour and sat near its morning high at 10 AM, a sign buyers keep coming after the upgrade. Consumer discretionary is the strongest sector so far.

  Risk: After a run of more than 5%, profit-taking could set in, especially if mega caps weaken again before Wednesday's Big Tech earnings.

  From $394.50 at 10:19 AM:high +0.70% at 1:13 PMclose −0.73%✗ Missed 1.5% (+0.70%)

• ROST · Ross Stores

  +3.4% at 10 AM ($237.09)

  ▲Up 1.2%

  Catalyst: UBS upgrade to Buy, target raised to $315 from $239

  Ross climbed steadily through the first 30 minutes, from about $234 to $237, and the UBS target is still about 33% above the 10 AM price. Lower oil also helps retailers.

  Risk: Upgrade-driven gains often stall by midday once the first wave of buying passes.

  From $235.77 at 10:19 AM:high +0.61% at 10:39 AMclose −0.70%✗ Missed 1.2% (+0.61%)

• NVDA · Nvidia

  +1.8% at 10 AM ($214.75)

  ▲Up 1%

  Catalyst: Anthropic's IPO filing shows fast-rising AI infrastructure spending

  Anthropic's S-1 shows $9 billion of AI infrastructure spending in the first half of 2026, more than in all of 2025, a direct read-through for chip demand. Nvidia held its gain through the first half hour while AMD gave back most of its early rise.

  Risk: Worries about how AI cloud renters such as CoreWeave and Nebius are financed could spread to their chip suppliers.

  From $214.90 at 10:19 AM:high +1.32% at 11:02 AMclose +0.51%✓ Reached 1%

• MU · Micron Technology

  +1.8% at 10 AM ($893.20), after an early high near $905

  ▲Up 1.5%

  Catalyst: Anthropic's IPO filing lifts AI chip stocks

  Memory makers are among the most direct beneficiaries of AI data-center buildouts, and Anthropic's filing shows its infrastructure spending already above last year's total. Micron's wide daily swings make another 1.5% rise reachable if chip stocks hold up.

  Risk: Micron already faded from its early high, and memory stocks swing hard on doubts about debt-funded AI spending.

  From $889.59 at 10:19 AM:high +2.94% at 2:12 PMclose +1.59%✓ Reached 1.5%

What is moving the market

• bullishOpening gains held. The S&P 500 opened 0.21% higher at 7,639.70 and was up 0.40% at 7,654.45 at 10 AM. Ten of the 11 sector funds rose, the Russell 2000 gained 0.46% and the VIX fell 4.7% to 18.54.
• bullishOil eases on Iran diplomacy. Brent slipped below $110 a barrel from about $117 at Friday's settle, and December WTI traded near $101–102, down 1.5% to 2%. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia keep supply worries alive.
• bullishAnthropic files for its IPO. Anthropic's S-1, filed just before the open, shows $16.3 billion of revenue in the six months to June versus $4.6 billion in all of 2025, and $9 billion of AI infrastructure spending. Nvidia and Micron were up 1.8% at 10 AM.
• bearishMeta, Alphabet and Verizon weigh. Communication services was the only sector down, about 1% at 10 AM: Meta fell 1.8% after its $35 billion stock offering, Alphabet 0.7% ahead of Wednesday's results, and Verizon 2.9% despite raising its 2026 outlook.
• mixedBrazil sell-off after Lula's win. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF was down 23% at 10 AM after Lula won a fourth term, which would be its biggest one-day drop since 2000; Petrobras, Nu and MercadoLibre fell more than 10%. The damage has stayed in Brazil-linked stocks so far.
• mixedFed decision Wednesday. The Fed is expected to hold rates on Wednesday after September's hike, with economists looking for a hawkish pause. September PCE inflation and third-quarter GDP follow Thursday; the 10-year yield was 4.98% at 10 AM.

The first 30 minutes

S&P 500

7,654.45+0.40% (+0.19% since the open)

Nasdaq Composite

26,016.87+0.24% (-0.03% since the open)

Dow Jones

52,390.27+0.34% (+0.13% since the open)

Russell 2000

2,788.58+0.46% (+0.29% since the open)

S&P 500 opening range (9:30–10:00)

7,639.70–7,668.86opened +0.21%

VIX

18.54-4.7%

10-year Treasury yield

4.98%-1 bp

Leading sectors

Consumer discretionary, health care+1.5%, +0.9%

Lagging sector

Communication services-1.0%

As of 10:00 AM ET.

Still to come today

1. 10:30 AMDallas Fed manufacturing survey (October) — Prior 9.8
2. 4:00 PMMarket close; earnings — Cadence Design Systems, Nucor, Welltower, Public Storage and Amkor are scheduled to report today; Alphabet and Microsoft follow on Wednesday

1. Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures rise ahead of busy week of earnings, Fed rate decision — Yahoo Finance
2. US futures steady as oil retreats ahead of earnings deluge, Fed decision — Reuters
3. Oil plunges more than 6% from near wartime highs as diplomacy over Iran seemingly gathers pace — Euronews
4. Stock Market News — Yahoo Finance
5. Verizon Q3 2026 earnings report date — Verizon
6. Earnings Calendar Oct 26 - Oct 30, 2026 — Stockti
7. S&P 500 (^GSPC) — Yahoo Finance
8. Premarket movers: Moderna, Brazil ADRs drop; SpaceX rises — Investing.com
9. Tesla Rises Over 2% Pre-Market as Barclays Upgrades to Overweight, Lifts Price Target 20% to $450 — TradingKey
10. Ross Stores climbs as UBS upgrades shares to Buy on stronger sales outlook — Investing.com
11. Anthropic Is Said to Plan Public Filing for Mega-IPO Monday — Bloomberg

• Every trading day at 9:00 AM ET, before the 9:30 AM open, we read index futures, overnight markets, economic data, earnings and the news, and publish the chance that the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Dow and Russell 2000 close higher, the expected move to the day’s high and low, and stocks with a catalyst that day.
• At 10:00 AM ET a second call follows, from the same research plus how the first 30 minutes traded — to see how much a forecast improves once the market is open.
• Each call is measured from the moment it could be acted on: the 9 AM call from the 9:30 AM open, the 10 AM call from the minute it went public. “To the high” is the rise from that price to the session’s highest price; “to the close”, to the closing price.
• A call is “up” at 55% or more and “down” at 45% or less; in between it is not scored. Direction is right when the S&P 500 ETF’s close beats (or trails) the previous close. A stock reaches its target when its move from the measuring point to the high — to the low for a “down” call — is at least the target.
• Prices are regular-session prices of the index ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM) and the stocks. Results are live while the market trades and final after the close; every past day stays online with its results.