Stock Market Prediction for Tuesday, October 27, 2026

Stocks set to open higher as UPS, Coca-Cola and SoFi beat and oil eases before Wednesday's Fed decision

Stocks are set to open higher on Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2026: S&P 500 futures were up about 0.4% and Nasdaq-100 futures 0.5–0.7%. We estimate a 63% chance the S&P 500 closes above Monday's 7,676.77. Raised outlooks from UPS, Coca-Cola, Royal Caribbean and SoFi and softer oil lead; the main risk is Wednesday's Fed decision with yields near 5%.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $767.34 (SPY) at 9:30 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: Futures point to a gap of about 0.4% after Monday's 0.70% gain, backed by broad earnings beats and lower oil. A 10-year yield near 5% and Wednesday's Fed decision likely cap the upside. Support 7,676 (Monday's close) and 7,620; resistance 7,760 and 7,800 (S&P 500 index)
• Nasdaq-100: Chip stocks lead for a second day, with Broadcom up 2.4% on an upgrade and Nvidia higher on an expanded Meta partnership. Meta and Microsoft trade lower, and rising yields have weighed on AI stocks this month.
• Dow Jones: Dow futures were up about 0.35–0.42%. Coca-Cola's raised guidance and Nvidia help, while Boeing is flat to lower after a wider-than-expected loss and Microsoft is down 0.6% before the bell.
• Russell 2000: Small caps should follow the broad lift from earnings, but they are the most exposed to a 10-year yield near 5% and to a Fed that raised rates last month.

Stocks to watch

• SOFI · SoFi Technologies

  +12% pre-market (about $16.14)

  ▲Up 3%

  Catalyst: Q3 beat; raised 2026 revenue guidance and a 2027 outlook above forecasts

  Adjusted EPS of $0.18 topped estimates and adjusted net revenue of about $1.4 billion beat roughly $1.25 billion expected. Full-year revenue guidance rose to $5.04 billion, and the 2027 outlook of $6.4 billion revenue and $0.90 EPS is above analyst models.

  Risk: Stocks up 10% or more before the open often give back part of the gain.

  From $15.98 at 9:30 AM:high +4.88% at 12:09 PMclose +2.63%✓ Reached 3%

• RCL · Royal Caribbean

  +6% pre-market

  ▲Up 2%

  Catalyst: Q3 beat; full-year profit forecast raised

  Adjusted EPS of $6.57 beat its own $6.26–6.36 guidance on strong close-in demand, and the full-year adjusted EPS range rose to $17.85–17.95 from $17.73–17.87. Lower oil prices this morning also help cruise lines.

  Risk: The company flagged higher fuel costs, so a rebound in oil could cap the move.

  From $300.00 at 9:30 AM:high +2.82% at 9:33 AMclose −1.36%✓ Reached 2%

• AVGO · Broadcom

  +2.4% pre-market

  ▲Up 2%

  Catalyst: D.A. Davidson upgrade tied to Anthropic

  An upgrade on a second day of chip-stock gains adds to AI demand momentum, with Nvidia and Amkor also higher before the bell.

  Risk: Rising Treasury yields have hit AI stocks this month and could reverse the group.

  From $339.87 at 9:30 AM:high +1.71% at 9:45 AMclose +0.72%✗ Missed 2% (+1.71%)

• UPS · United Parcel Service

  +2% pre-market

  ▲Up 1.5%

  Catalyst: Q3 beat; full-year outlook raised

  Adjusted EPS of $1.69 topped the $1.64 consensus and UPS raised its full-year guidance, a combination that tends to draw follow-through buying.

  Risk: A weaker broad market could pull the stock back toward its pre-earnings level.

  From $101.54 at 9:30 AM:high +4.97% at 3:58 PMclose +4.48%✓ Reached 1.5%

• CDNS · Cadence Design Systems

  +2.1% pre-market

  ▲Up 1.8%

  Catalyst: Q3 beat; full-year forecast raised

  A beat and a higher full-year forecast from the chip-design software maker line up with a second day of strength in chip stocks.

  Risk: Software valuations are sensitive to a 10-year yield near 5%.

  From $325.96 at 9:30 AM:high +7.01% at 12:39 PMclose +5.25%✓ Reached 1.8%

• WHR · Whirlpool

  -6% to -8% pre-market

  ▼Down 2.5%

  Catalyst: Q3 loss; full-year revenue forecast cut below consensus

  A third-quarter loss, a revenue miss and a lower full-year revenue forecast point to further selling after the open.

  Risk: Heavily sold stocks often bounce after the open as short sellers take profits.

  From $26.85 at 9:30 AM:low −5.03% at 9:35 AMclose +2.12%✓ Reached 2.5%

What is moving the market

• bullishEarnings beats with raised outlooks. Coca-Cola (EPS $0.91 vs $0.88), UPS ($1.69 vs $1.64), Royal Caribbean ($6.57 vs $6.45) and SoFi beat and raised guidance; PayPal lifted its full-year EPS outlook to about $5.60 despite a revenue miss.
• mixedOil eases on Iran peace signals. WTI fell 0.85% to $100.89 and Brent 0.72% to $109.94 after Iran's supreme leader spoke of terms for ending the war. Brent is still near its highest since late April after a reported strike on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery.
• mixedFed decision Wednesday after a hike last month. The two-day meeting starts today and a hold is expected; traders price about a 12% chance of a hike on Wednesday and about 90% odds of a 25-basis-point hike in December.
• bearish10-year Treasury yield near 5%. The 10-year yield sits at about 4.97–4.99% ahead of a $70 billion 5-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET; rising borrowing costs have weighed on AI stocks this month.
• bullishChip stocks extend Monday's gains. Broadcom rose 2.4% on an upgrade, Amkor 3.7% and Nvidia 0.6–1% after an expanded Meta partnership; Meta slipped about 0.5% after a record $97.5 billion equity raise and Microsoft fell 0.6%.

Before the bell

S&P 500 futures

+29 points+0.38%

Nasdaq-100 futures

+155 points+0.53%

Dow futures

+186 points+0.35%

VIX (Monday close)

17.88-0.51

10-year Treasury yield

4.98%little changed

WTI crude

$100.89-0.85%

Brent crude

$109.94-0.72%

Gold

below $4,000/oz-0.5%

Bitcoin

below $80,000lower

As of 8:30 AM ET.

Today’s calendar

1. 8:30 AMDurable goods orders (September) — Forecast +1.9%
2. 9:00 AMCase-Shiller and FHFA home prices (August) — Monthly house price indexes
3. 10:00 AMConsumer confidence (October, Conference Board) — Forecast 81.0
4. 10:00 AMNew home sales (September) — Forecast 651,000 annualized
5. 10:00 AMRichmond Fed manufacturing index (October) — Forecast 0
6. 10:30 AMDallas Fed services activity (October) — Regional services survey
7. 1:00 PM5-year Treasury note auction — $70 billion; a test of demand with the 10-year yield near 5%
8. 4:00 PMEarnings after the close — Visa, Seagate, Robinhood, Waste Management, Mondelez, NXP Semiconductors, Teradyne, Baker Hughes and Enphase

S&P 500 holds a slim gain after its opening rise fades; consumer confidence jumps to 91.7 before the Fed

Stocks are holding small gains on Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2026: the S&P 500 opened 0.3% higher, then slipped to about 7,685 (+0.1%) by 10 AM. We estimate a 56% chance it closes above Monday's 7,676.77, confirming the 9 AM up call (63%) with less confidence. Consumer confidence jumped to 91.7; risks are a 5% 10-year yield and Wednesday's Fed decision.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $765.26 (SPY) at 10:22 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: The index opened about 0.3% higher near 7,700 and gave back about two thirds of the gain by 10 AM, leaving a thin cushion over Monday's close. Earnings beats and a strong consumer confidence report support it, while a 10-year yield near 5% and the 1:00 PM 5-year auction likely cap rallies. Support 7,677 (Monday's close) and 7,640 (Monday's open); resistance 7,700 (this morning's open) and 7,760 (S&P 500 index)
• Nasdaq-100: The Nasdaq Composite is up about 0.3% after opening up about 0.5%, led by chips and data storage (AMD +3.7%, Broadcom +2.9%, Western Digital +6%). Meta is down about 1.2% and Nvidia is flat, and Alphabet and Microsoft report on Wednesday.
• Dow Jones: The Dow is about 0.1% lower after a mixed start, with Boeing down 1.8% after a deeper-than-expected quarterly loss and Coca-Cola slightly lower despite raising its outlook. Nvidia is flat, so the average lacks a clear leader.
• Russell 2000: The Russell 2000 is up about 0.2%. Small caps gain from the strong consumer confidence report but stay the most exposed to a 10-year yield near 5% and to a Fed that raised rates in September.

Stocks to watch

• RCL · Royal Caribbean

  +6.4% to +6.8% since Monday's close, near $299 (high $308.45)

  ▲Up 1.5%

  Catalyst: Q3 beat; full-year profit forecast raised

  Adjusted EPS of $6.57 topped the $6.38 consensus on strong close-in demand, and full-year EPS guidance rose to $17.85–17.95. The stock started the day about 26% below its 52-week high, and October consumer confidence jumped to 91.7, a backdrop that favors travel spending.

  Risk: It has already pulled back from $308.45, and fourth-quarter EPS guidance of $3.48–3.58 was slightly below estimates.

  From $299.83 at 10:22 AM:high +1.68% at 12:29 PMclose −1.30%✓ Reached 1.5%

• WDC · Western Digital

  +6.0% to +6.3% since Monday's close, near $378

  ▲Up 2%

  Catalyst: Fiscal Q1 beat, Q2 outlook well above estimates, dividend raised 17%

  Adjusted EPS of $4.64 beat about $4.11 on revenue of $4.38 billion, up about 55% from a year ago, and fiscal second-quarter EPS guidance of up to about $6 is far above the roughly $4.80 consensus. Management expects AI-related storage demand to grow about 25% a year over five years.

  Risk: Seagate reports after the close today, and a weak print or caution before it could stall the storage group.

  From $378.25 at 10:22 AM:high +2.60% at 12:00 PMclose +0.70%✓ Reached 2%

• AVGO · Broadcom

  +2.9% to $338.82

  ▲Up 1.5%

  Catalyst: Upgrade and reported bank financing for Broadcom-built chips for Anthropic

  Broadcom is up 2.9% and AMD 3.7% as chip stocks lead for a second day, helped by an upgrade and reports that banks are arranging roughly $60 billion or more of financing for Broadcom hardware for Anthropic.

  Risk: Megacap tech is mixed before Wednesday's Fed decision and Alphabet and Microsoft results, and rising yields have hit AI stocks this month.

  From $337.02 at 10:22 AM:high +2.28% at 12:00 PMclose +1.58%✓ Reached 1.5%

• UPS · United Parcel Service

  +2.4% to +2.9% since Monday's close, near $103

  ▲Up 1.2%

  Catalyst: Q3 beat; full-year revenue outlook raised to about $92.6 billion

  Adjusted EPS of $1.69 beat $1.63 expected and revenue of $22.9 billion beat about $22.3 billion, its fourth straight beat, and UPS raised its full-year revenue target from $91.2 billion. The stock is trading at the top of this morning's range after starting the week near its 52-week low.

  Risk: A broad-market slide after the 1:00 PM auction could pull it back toward Monday's $100.32 close.

  From $103.29 at 10:22 AM:high +3.19% at 3:58 PMclose +2.71%✓ Reached 1.2%

• SOFI · SoFi Technologies

  +11.2% to $16.08

  ▲Up 2.5%

  Catalyst: Q3 beat; 2026 revenue guidance raised to $5.04 billion; 2027 outlook above forecasts

  SoFi is holding nearly all of its pre-market gain of about 12% after adjusted net revenue of about $1.4 billion beat roughly $1.25 billion expected. A 2027 outlook of about $6.4 billion revenue and $0.90 EPS, above analyst models, and heavy retail volume can extend the move.

  Risk: Stocks up more than 10% in a day often give back part of the gain in the afternoon.

  From $16.18 at 10:22 AM:high +3.60% at 12:09 PMclose +1.37%✓ Reached 2.5%

• XYL · Xylem

  About -9% to -10% since Monday's close

  ▼Down 1.5%

  Catalyst: Full-year revenue and EPS guidance cut

  Xylem now expects 2026 revenue of about $8.95 billion, down 1%, against prior guidance of 2% growth, and cut adjusted EPS guidance to $5.40–5.45 from $5.55–5.70 after third-quarter revenue fell 3% to $2.2 billion. Guidance cuts like this usually bring estimate cuts and further selling.

  Risk: Orders rose 10% organically, and after a drop of nearly 10% the stock could bounce as short sellers take profits.

  From $98.50 at 10:22 AM:low −5.98% at 3:59 PMclose −5.73%✓ Reached 1.5%

What is moving the market

• bearishOpening gains fade. The S&P 500 opened 0.3% higher near 7,700 and slipped to about 7,685 (+0.1%) by 10 AM; the Nasdaq Composite eased from about +0.5% to +0.3% and the Dow dipped about 0.1%.
• mixedConsumer confidence jumps to 91.7. The Conference Board index rose 7.5 points in October to 91.7, far above forecasts near 80.5, with September revised up to 84.2 and expectations up 6.9 points to 72.6. Twelve-month inflation expectations eased but stayed high at 5.8%, and consumers still expect higher interest rates.
• bullishEarnings beats drive single-stock gains. SoFi is up about 11%, Celestica 10% (down from a 15% pre-market gain), Royal Caribbean 6–7%, Western Digital 6% and UPS 2–3% after beats and higher outlooks; Xylem fell about 10% and Hilton about 4% on weaker guidance.
• mixedChips lead, megacaps mixed. AMD rose 3.7% and Broadcom 2.9%, while Nvidia was flat and Meta fell about 1.2% as Nvidia agreed to commit $3 billion to Meta's share offering. Alphabet and Microsoft report on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday.
• bearishYields near 5% before the auction and the Fed. The 10-year Treasury yield is about 5.00% and the 30-year about 5.31% ahead of a $70 billion 5-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET. The Fed, which raised rates in September, is expected to hold on Wednesday.

The first 30 minutes

S&P 500 (opened near 7,700, +0.3%)

7,685+0.11% (-0.2% since open)

Nasdaq Composite (opened +0.45% to +0.5%)

26,248+0.30%

Dow Jones Industrial Average

52,312-0.09%

Russell 2000

2,792+0.21%

VIX

18.0-0.4

10-year Treasury yield

5.00%+1 bp

Consumer confidence (October)

91.7vs about 80.5 expected

Leading

Chips, data storage, cruise linesAMD +3.7%, WDC +6%

Lagging

Meta, Boeing, Hilton, XylemXYL -10%, HLT -4%

As of 10:00 AM ET.

Still to come today

1. 10:00 AMConsumer confidence (October, Conference Board) — Actual 91.7 vs about 80.5 expected; September revised to 84.2
2. 10:00 AMNew home sales (September) — Forecast about 650,000 annualized; August 684,000
3. 10:30 AMDallas Fed services activity (October) — Regional services survey
4. 1:00 PM5-year Treasury note auction — $70 billion; a test of demand with the 10-year yield near 5%
5. 4:00 PMEarnings after the close — Visa, Seagate, Robinhood, Waste Management, Mondelez, NXP Semiconductors, Teradyne, Baker Hughes and Enphase
6. WednesdayFed rate decision — A hold is expected after September's hike; Alphabet and Microsoft report the same day

1. US stock futures gain as oil pulls back ahead of Fed decision — Reuters via AOL
2. US stock futures muted as oil holds near April highs ahead of Fed decision — Reuters via Investing.com
3. Stock Futures Rise as Investors Focus on Key Earnings — TipRanks
4. Futures Rise, Oil Slides As Iran's Supreme Leader Talks Peace And Shrugs Off Ras Tanura Attack — ZeroHedge
5. Coke raised, SoFi soared, Boeing shrugged: six prints before the bell — Substack
6. Stock Earnings Calendar, October 27, 2026 — Digrin
7. Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq live updates for Tuesday, October 27 — Yahoo Finance
8. S&P 500, Nasdaq open higher as oil pulls back ahead of Fed decision — Reuters via Investing.com
9. U.S. stocks open up as traders gear up for tech earnings, Fed decision this week — Investing.com
10. US Consumer Confidence Increased in October — The Conference Board via PR Newswire
11. Why is Royal Caribbean stock surging today? — Investing.com
12. Why is UPS stock climbing today? — Investing.com
13. Why is Western Digital stock surging today? — Investing.com
14. Xylem third-quarter 2026 results (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1) — Xylem (SEC filing)
15. Stock Market News — Investing.com

• Every trading day at 9:00 AM ET, before the 9:30 AM open, we read index futures, overnight markets, economic data, earnings and the news, and publish the chance that the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Dow and Russell 2000 close higher, the expected move to the day’s high and low, and stocks with a catalyst that day.
• At 10:00 AM ET a second call follows, from the same research plus how the first 30 minutes traded — to see how much a forecast improves once the market is open.
• Each call is measured from the moment it could be acted on: the 9 AM call from the 9:30 AM open, the 10 AM call from the minute it went public. “To the high” is the rise from that price to the session’s highest price; “to the close”, to the closing price.
• A call is “up” at 55% or more and “down” at 45% or less; in between it is not scored. Direction is right when the S&P 500 ETF’s close beats (or trails) the previous close. A stock reaches its target when its move from the measuring point to the high — to the low for a “down” call — is at least the target.
• Prices are regular-session prices of the index ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM) and the stocks. Results are live while the market trades and final after the close; every past day stays online with its results.