Stock Market Prediction for Wednesday, October 21, 2026

Stocks set to open higher, Nasdaq futures up 0.7%, as SpaceX and Super Micro jump; Netflix falls 6%

Stocks look set to open higher on Wednesday, October 21, 2026: S&P 500 futures are up 0.35% and Nasdaq-100 futures 0.7% as SpaceX and Super Micro revive the AI trade. We put the chance of an S&P 500 gain at 60%. Netflix is down about 6%. Tesla and Meta report after the close.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $771.17 (SPY) at 9:30 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: Futures are up 0.35% after Tuesday's 0.28% gain to 7,712.57. Strong AI news from SpaceX and Super Micro and a 3 basis point dip in the 10-year yield support stocks; caution before Tesla and Meta results is the main risk to late buying. Support 7,690 and 7,668; resistance 7,748 and 7,845 (S&P 500 index)
• Nasdaq-100: Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.7% as Super Micro jumps about 12% and SpaceX 7% to 9%, outweighing Netflix's 6% drop. Meta and Tesla report after the close, which may cap gains late in the day.
• Dow Jones: Dow futures are up 0.48% after Tuesday's 1.02% rally led by 3M and Northrop Grumman. A second day of gains is likely, though a big prior move leaves room for profit-taking.
• Russell 2000: Russell 2000 futures are up 0.4% after small caps rose about 1.7% on Tuesday, helped by the 10-year yield easing to 5.09%. Borrowing costs above 5% remain the main headwind for a third day of gains.

Stocks to watch

• SMCI · Super Micro Computer

  +12% pre-market (closed at $32.47 on Tuesday)

  ▲Up 3%

  Catalyst: Fiscal first-quarter revenue outlook raised to $18.5–$19.5 billion

  Super Micro lifted its revenue outlook for the quarter that ended September 30 to $18.5–$19.5 billion from $14.5–$15.5 billion, well above the roughly $14.99 billion consensus, and raised gross margin guidance to 12.0%–12.5% from 10.4%–10.8%. A raise this large usually keeps buyers active after the open.

  Risk: Gaps of more than 10% often give back part of the gain in the first hour.

  From $36.42 at 9:30 AM:high +2.83% at 9:33 AMclose −2.33%✗ Missed 3% (+2.83%)

• SPCX · SpaceX

  +7% to +9% pre-market

  ▲Up 2.5%

  Catalyst: Q3 revenue up 161% to $14.58 billion; Tesla merger committees

  SpaceX beat estimates as third-quarter revenue rose 161% to $14.58 billion, with $7.6 billion from its AI segment. Elon Musk also said SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to discuss a merger, a second reason for buyers.

  Risk: The shares swing widely, and an 8% gap could fade if traders turn cautious before Tesla's report after the close.

  From $160.56 at 9:30 AM:high +3.50% at 10:03 AMclose −0.78%✓ Reached 2.5%

• TSLA · Tesla

  +1% to +2% pre-market

  ▲Up 2%

  Catalyst: Q3 results after the close; SpaceX merger committees

  Tesla is up 1% to 2% before the bell after Elon Musk said Tesla and SpaceX formed special committees to discuss a merger, and SpaceX's 161% revenue growth lifted interest in his companies. Tesla's daily range is usually wide, and stocks often run up into a closely watched report.

  Risk: Traders may cut positions before the after-hours report.

  From $381.43 at 9:30 AM:high +1.94% at 9:51 AMclose +1.32%✗ Missed 2% (+1.94%)

• COF · Capital One

  +3% to +3.3% pre-market

  ▲Up 1.3%

  Catalyst: Third-quarter results after Tuesday's close

  Capital One is up about 3% before the bell after its third-quarter report and earnings call. A post-earnings gain in a large bank often extends when the broader market opens higher.

  Risk: The company said it will spend more on marketing as rivals step up, which could weigh on profit estimates.

  From $206.37 at 9:30 AM:high +2.48% at 10:32 AMclose +0.14%✓ Reached 1.3%

• NFLX · Netflix

  -6% to -7% pre-market

  ▼Down 1.5%

  Catalyst: Weak Q4 revenue forecast; lower 2026 ad revenue outlook

  Netflix beat third-quarter earnings targets, but its fourth-quarter revenue forecast missed estimates, it lowered its 2026 ad revenue guidance and sales grew at the slowest pace in three years. Guidance cuts tend to draw more selling after the open.

  Risk: A 6%–7% gap already prices much of the disappointment, and dip buyers often step in on large-cap names.

  From $64.15 at 9:30 AM:low −0.08% at 9:30 AMclose +1.39%✗ Missed 1.5% (+0.08%)

• ISRG · Intuitive Surgical

  -6% to -7.6% pre-market

  ▼Down 1.5%

  Catalyst: $450 million antitrust matter; procedure growth outlook narrowed

  Intuitive Surgical beat third-quarter estimates but disclosed a $450 million antitrust matter and narrowed its outlook for procedure growth, the main gauge of demand for its surgical robots. A cut to the key growth measure usually keeps sellers active early.

  Risk: The quarter itself beat estimates, so buyers may treat the gap as an entry point.

  From $402.50 at 9:30 AM:low −0.87% at 9:30 AMclose +6.37%✗ Missed 1.5% (+0.87%)

What is moving the market

• bullishSpaceX and Super Micro revive the AI trade. SpaceX is up 7% to 9% after third-quarter revenue rose 161% to $14.58 billion, $7.6 billion of it from AI. Super Micro is up about 12% after raising its quarterly revenue outlook to $18.5–$19.5 billion from $14.5–$15.5 billion.
• bearishNetflix and Intuitive Surgical sink. Netflix is down about 6% after a fourth-quarter revenue forecast below estimates and a lower 2026 ad revenue outlook. Intuitive Surgical is down 6% to 7.6% after disclosing a $450 million antitrust matter and narrowing its procedure growth outlook.
• mixedTesla and Meta report after the close. Tesla is up 1% to 2% after Elon Musk said Tesla and SpaceX formed special committees to discuss a merger, while Meta is down 0.3%. Investors will focus on Meta's AI spending outlook, which may keep big tech buyers cautious into the close.
• mixedYields and oil ease but stay high. The 10-year Treasury yield is 5.09%, down 3 basis points, and December WTI crude is $97.07, down 0.8%, with Brent near $109. The VIX is down 1.2% at 17.10.
• bullishMomentum after a strong Tuesday. The Dow rose 1.02% on Tuesday, led by 3M and Northrop Grumman, and the S&P 500 gained 0.28% to 7,712.57, 1.7% below its 52-week high of 7,844.52. The Nasdaq slipped 0.02% on worries about AI-related debt.

Before the bell

S&P 500 futures

7,782.75+0.35%

Nasdaq-100 futures

29,884.25+0.70%

Dow futures

52,973+0.48%

Russell 2000 futures

2,798.10+0.40%

VIX

17.10-1.21%

10-year Treasury yield

5.09%-3 bp

WTI crude (Dec)

$97.07-0.77%

Gold

$4,153.10+0.25%

Bitcoin

$83,709+2.03%

As of 9:14 AM ET.

Today’s calendar

1. 7:00 AMMBA mortgage applications (weekly) — 30-year mortgage rate 7.41%, down from 7.50%; market index 188.6 vs 199.2 prior
2. 9:30 AMMarket open — Regular session to 4:00 PM ET; Super Micro, SpaceX, Netflix and Intuitive Surgical are the big early movers
3. 10:30 AMEIA weekly petroleum status report — Crude oil inventories; no consensus confirmed, with WTI near $97
4. 4:00 PMEarnings after the close: Tesla and Meta Platforms — Meta's AI spending outlook and Tesla's comments on the SpaceX merger committees are the focus; IBM, Lam Research, Texas Instruments and SAP also report this week

S&P 500 erases its 0.3% opening gain as Alphabet and Netflix fall; we cut the up odds to 48% from 60%

Stocks gave back early gains on Wednesday, October 21, 2026: the S&P 500 opened up 0.3% but was flat at 7,710 by 10:12 AM ET as Alphabet and Netflix fell, though SpaceX jumped 11%. We cut the S&P 500's chance of a gain to 48% from the 9 AM call of 60%. Tesla and Meta report tonight.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $768.88 (SPY) at 10:20 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: The S&P 500 opened 0.31% higher but erased the gain by 10:12 AM ET, trading at 7,710.49 just below Tuesday's 7,712.57 close, as Alphabet fell 2.7% and Netflix 4.2%. A VIX of 16.95 and a lower 10-year yield argue against a deep slide, so we see roughly even odds for the close. Support 7,690 and 7,668; resistance 7,739 (today's high) and 7,748 (S&P 500 index)
• Nasdaq-100: The Nasdaq-100 was up 0.47% at 29,629.61 at 10:14 AM ET, down from a 0.86% gain at its high, with Tesla up 3.3% and Nvidia 0.7% offsetting Alphabet and Netflix. Meta, Tesla and Lam Research report after the close, which may keep buyers cautious late in the day.
• Dow Jones: The Dow opened 0.30% higher but was down 0.06% at 52,462.91 by 10:12 AM ET after a low of 52,392.28. Telecom stocks fell after AT&T's report, with Verizon down about 3%, and Tuesday's 1.02% rally leaves room for profit-taking.
• Russell 2000: The Russell 2000 was up 0.60% at 2,789.99 at 9:57 AM ET, near its 2,791.72 high and the strongest of the four indexes. A 3 basis point drop in the 10-year yield to 5.09% helps small caps, though yields above 5% remain the main headwind.

Stocks to watch

• SPCX · SpaceX

  +10.7% to $163.61 at 10:14 AM ET (range $158.20–$166.12)

  ▲Up 2%

  Catalyst: Q3 revenue up 161% to $14.58 billion; Tesla merger committees

  SpaceX's third-quarter revenue rose 161% to $14.58 billion, $7.6 billion of it from AI, and Elon Musk said SpaceX and Tesla formed special committees to weigh a merger. Volume reached 77.9 million shares by 10:14 AM ET, about 80% of a full day's average, a sign of broad buying.

  Risk: An 11% gap invites profit-taking, and the stock has already slipped from its $166.12 high.

  From $162.70 at 10:20 AM:high +0.77% at 11:43 AMclose −2.08%✗ Missed 2% (+0.77%)

• SMCI · Super Micro Computer

  +10.8% to $35.99 at 10:14 AM ET (range $35.74–$37.45)

  ▲Up 2.5%

  Catalyst: Fiscal Q1 revenue outlook raised to $18.5–$19.5 billion

  Super Micro raised its revenue outlook for the quarter that ended September 30 to $18.5–$19.5 billion from $14.5–$15.5 billion, above the roughly $14.99 billion consensus, and lifted its gross margin range to 12.0%–12.5%. Its range already spans more than 4% today, so a 2.5% rebound toward the $37.45 high fits its usual swings.

  Risk: It trades below its $36.42 open, and gaps above 10% often keep fading into midday.

  From $35.90 at 10:20 AM:high +1.27% at 10:35 AMclose −0.91%✗ Missed 2.5% (+1.27%)

• TSLA · Tesla

  +3.3% to $386.15 at 10:15 AM ET (high $388.84)

  ▲Up 1.5%

  Catalyst: SpaceX merger committees; Q3 results after the close

  Tesla is up 3.3% after Elon Musk said Tesla and SpaceX formed special committees to discuss a merger, and SpaceX's 161% revenue growth is drawing buyers to his companies. Stocks often run up into a closely watched report, and a 1.5% rise would set a new high for the day.

  Risk: Traders may cut positions before results after the close, with the call at 5:30 PM ET.

  From $385.79 at 10:20 AM:high +0.74% at 12:40 PMclose +0.18%✗ Missed 1.5% (+0.74%)

• T · AT&T

  -5.7% to $22.10 at 10:13 AM ET

  ▼Down 1%

  Catalyst: Q3 beat and raised outlook overshadowed by Starlink competition

  AT&T beat third-quarter estimates, with adjusted EPS of $0.65 against $0.60, and raised its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook, yet the stock fell 5.7% as SpaceX's results highlighted Starlink as a rival and wireless subscriber growth underwhelmed. Selling on good numbers points to a change in how investors view the group, which tends to keep sellers active.

  Risk: After a 5.7% drop on a beat-and-raise quarter, value buyers may step in.

  From $21.98 at 10:20 AM:low −0.89% at 11:48 AMclose −0.34%✗ Missed 1% (+0.89%)

What is moving the market

• bearishOpening gains fade. The S&P 500 opened 0.31% higher at 7,736.43, peaked at 7,738.70 and slid to 7,710.49 by 10:12 AM ET, below Tuesday's close. The Dow swung from a 0.41% gain to a 0.06% loss, while the Nasdaq-100 held a 0.47% gain.
• bullishSpaceX and Super Micro lead the AI trade. SpaceX was up 10.7% at $163.61 on 77.9 million shares, a $2.16 trillion market value, after revenue rose 161% and Musk said merger committees were formed with Tesla. Super Micro rose 10.8% on a raised outlook, and Datadog, Vertiv and Dell gained about 5%.
• bearishAlphabet, Netflix and telecoms weigh. Alphabet fell 2.7% to $330.95 and Netflix 4.2% to $65.82 after a soft fourth-quarter forecast. AT&T dropped 5.7% despite a beat and a raised outlook as investors weighed Starlink competition, and Verizon and T-Mobile fell about 3%.
• mixedBig earnings after the close. Meta (EPS estimate $5.46), Tesla ($0.45), Lam Research, Texas Instruments and IBM report after the bell, and Tesla's call is at 5:30 PM ET. Tesla was up 3.3% at $386.15, but caution before Meta's AI spending outlook may cap big tech late in the day.
• bullishVolatility and yields ease. The VIX was down 2.1% at 16.95 and the 10-year Treasury yield was 5.09%, down 3 basis points; December WTI crude was $97.55, down 0.3%. Small caps led, with the Russell 2000 up 0.6%.

The first 30 minutes

S&P 500

7,710.49-0.03% (-0.34% since open)

S&P 500 opening range

7,709.83–7,738.70Opened +0.31%; at the low

Nasdaq Composite

26,529.38+0.40% (-0.27% since the open)

Dow Jones

52,462.91-0.06% (-0.36% since the open)

Russell 2000 (9:57 AM)

2,789.99+0.60% (+0.35% since the open)

VIX

16.95-2.08%

10-year Treasury yield

5.09%-3 bp

Leading sectors

Industrials (SpaceX), utilities, energy+3.5%, +2.2%, +1.8%

Lagging sectors

Communication services, consumer staples-0.9%, -0.6%

As of 10:12 AM ET.

Still to come today

1. 10:30 AMEIA weekly petroleum status report — Crude oil inventories; December WTI near $97.55
2. 4:00 PMMarket close — Regular session ends; a full trading day
3. After 4:00 PMEarnings: Meta, Tesla, Lam Research, Texas Instruments, IBM — EPS estimates: Meta $5.46, Tesla $0.45, Lam Research $2.18, Texas Instruments $2.43, IBM $2.87
4. 5:30 PMTesla earnings call — Comments on the SpaceX merger committees are the main focus

1. Yahoo Finance markets overview (futures, VIX, yields, oil, gold, bitcoin) — Yahoo Finance
2. Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures rise as earnings roll in, SpaceX stock surges — Yahoo Finance
3. S&P 500 (^GSPC) quote — Yahoo Finance
4. Stock Futures Rise as Investors Focus on Earnings from SpaceX and Other Companies — TipRanks
5. Today's Market Movers: SpaceX Jumps on Earnings and Tesla Merger Talks as Netflix Falls — CoinCentral
6. Supermicro stock surges 12% after raising revenue outlook on AI demand — Yahoo Finance
7. Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: SpaceX, Super Micro Computer, Netflix, Dell and more — CNBC
8. Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) quote — Yahoo Finance
9. Nasdaq-100 (^NDX) quote — Yahoo Finance
10. Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) quote — Yahoo Finance
11. Russell 2000 (^RUT) quote — Yahoo Finance
12. Sectors — Yahoo Finance
13. Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) quote and news — Yahoo Finance
14. AT&T Inc. (T) quote and news — Yahoo Finance
15. Earnings calendar, October 21, 2026 — Yahoo Finance
16. Premarket movers: Super Micro, SCHMID Group and SpaceX surge — Investing.com

• Every trading day at 9:00 AM ET, before the 9:30 AM open, we read index futures, overnight markets, economic data, earnings and the news, and publish the chance that the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Dow and Russell 2000 close higher, the expected move to the day’s high and low, and stocks with a catalyst that day.
• At 10:00 AM ET a second call follows, from the same research plus how the first 30 minutes traded — to see how much a forecast improves once the market is open.
• Each call is measured from the moment it could be acted on: the 9 AM call from the 9:30 AM open, the 10 AM call from the minute it went public. “To the high” is the rise from that price to the session’s highest price; “to the close”, to the closing price.
• A call is “up” at 55% or more and “down” at 45% or less; in between it is not scored. Direction is right when the S&P 500 ETF’s close beats (or trails) the previous close. A stock reaches its target when its move from the measuring point to the high — to the low for a “down” call — is at least the target.
• Prices are regular-session prices of the index ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM) and the stocks. Results are live while the market trades and final after the close; every past day stays online with its results.