Stock Market Prediction for Tuesday, October 20, 2026

Stocks set for a flat open as Nasdaq futures slip 0.4%; RTX rises, GM and GE fall on earnings

Stocks look set for a flat open on Tuesday, October 20, 2026: S&P 500 futures are down 0.1% and Nasdaq-100 futures 0.4% as AI stocks slip. We put the chance of an S&P 500 gain at 48%. Earnings are mixed: RTX is up 2%, while GM and GE Aerospace are down 4% to 7%. Netflix reports after the close.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $765.86 (SPY) at 9:30 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: Futures are 0.1% lower after Monday's 0.41% gain to 7,690.73. Strong defense results help, but oil near $100 and a 5.11% 10-year yield cap the upside. Support 7,650 and 7,600; resistance 7,745 and 7,810 (S&P 500 index)
• Nasdaq-100: Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.36% as AI names such as CoreWeave and Nebius slip, a day after the Nasdaq's 1.11% rebound. Netflix reports after the close, Tesla and Meta on Wednesday.
• Dow Jones: Dow futures are flat after Monday's 0.07% slip. Industrial earnings are split, with RTX higher and GE Aerospace lower, so we see no edge for the blue chips.
• Russell 2000: Russell 2000 futures are up 0.07%. A 3 basis point dip in the 10-year yield helps small caps, but borrowing costs above 5% tend to keep rallies short.

Stocks to watch

• RTX · RTX

  +2.2% pre-market

  ▲Up 1.5%

  Catalyst: Q3 beat; 2026 EPS outlook raised to $7.65–$7.75

  Third-quarter adjusted EPS rose 33% to $2.26 on $25.0 billion in sales, and RTX lifted its 2026 adjusted EPS range from $7.10–$7.25 to $7.65–$7.75 with a $340 billion backlog. A beat with a raised outlook usually keeps buyers active after the open.

  Risk: About $0.25 of the quarter's EPS came from a one-time tariff cost recovery, which could limit follow-through.

  From $193.28 at 9:30 AM:high +1.92% at 9:57 AMclose +0.03%✓ Reached 1.5%

• LMT · Lockheed Martin

  +0.8% pre-market

  ▲Up 1%

  Catalyst: Defense peers RTX and Northrop Grumman raised 2026 outlooks

  RTX and Northrop Grumman both beat estimates and raised their 2026 profit outlooks this morning, and Lockheed is up 0.8% before its own report on Thursday, October 22. Buying in the group tends to spread when its leaders guide higher.

  Risk: Lockheed fell 0.7% on Monday and may lag if traders wait for its own results.

  From $553.00 at 9:30 AM:high +1.17% at 9:35 AMclose −0.78%✓ Reached 1%

• GM · General Motors

  -6.6% pre-market

  ▼Down 1.8%

  Catalyst: Q3 beat, but the 2026 outlook was only narrowed

  GM's adjusted EPS of $3.70 beat the $3.57 estimate and the board approved a $20 billion buyback, but the 2026 EPS range was only narrowed to $12.75–$13.75 from $12.00–$14.00, with the midpoint unchanged. Large post-earnings gaps on outlook worries often see more selling in the first hour.

  Risk: The $20 billion buyback is large for a stock near $77 and could draw dip buyers quickly.

  From $77.22 at 9:30 AM:low −2.77% at 1:36 PMclose −0.17%✓ Reached 1.8%

• GE · GE Aerospace

  -4.4% pre-market

  ▼Down 1.5%

  Catalyst: Beat and raise overshadowed by rising costs

  GE Aerospace beat estimates and raised guidance, but the stock is down 4.4% before the bell to about $298 on higher costs and a loss in its insurance business. When a beat and raise is sold this hard, the open often meets more supply.

  Risk: Demand for jet engines remains strong, so buyers could step in after the gap.

  From $302.23 at 9:30 AM:low −2.65% at 9:36 AMclose −0.78%✓ Reached 1.5%

What is moving the market

• bearishAI stocks slip again. Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.36% at 29,614.75 as CoreWeave (more than 3% lower) and Nebius (more than 2% lower) fall in early trading. The Nasdaq rose 1.11% on Monday, its biggest gain in two weeks.
• bullishDefense earnings beat and raise. RTX raised its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $7.65–$7.75 from $7.10–$7.25 and is up 2.2% before the bell. Northrop Grumman also beat and lifted its profit outlook and is up about 1%.
• bearishGM and GE Aerospace sold despite beats. GM is down 6.6% after only narrowing its 2026 EPS range to $12.75–$13.75 despite a $3.70 beat and a $20 billion buyback. GE Aerospace is down 4.4% on rising costs even after raising guidance.
• bearishOil near $100. December WTI crude is up 1.3% to $99.84 and Brent trades above $110, near a five-month high, as Iran–Israel tension and a tanker hitting a naval mine near the Strait of Hormuz keep supply fears alive.
• mixed10-year yield above 5%. The 10-year Treasury yield is 5.11%, down 3 basis points, still a level that weighs on stock valuations and small caps. The Fed's next decision is due on October 28.

Before the bell

S&P 500 futures

7,727.25-0.09%

Nasdaq-100 futures

29,614.75-0.36%

Dow futures

52,1810.00%

Russell 2000 futures

2,744.20+0.07%

VIX

18.72+1.52%

10-year Treasury yield

5.11%-3 bp

WTI crude (Dec)

$99.84+1.32%

Gold

$4,136.10-0.58%

Bitcoin

$81,313-0.87%

As of 9:15 AM ET.

Today’s calendar

1. 8:30 AMHousing starts and building permits (September) — Census Bureau release; the figures were not confirmed at writing
2. 9:30 AMMarket open; Northrop Grumman earnings call — Northrop beat third-quarter estimates and raised its 2026 profit outlook
3. 10:00 AMPending home sales index — Prior 71.2; no consensus confirmed
4. 4:00 PMEarnings after the close: Netflix, SpaceX, United Airlines — Netflix is reported to plan about 1,000 job cuts; United will update on fares, fuel costs and demand

Stocks turn higher after a soft open: S&P 500 up 0.3%, Dow 0.7% as health care and 3M lead; chips lag

Stocks turned higher after a soft open on Tuesday, October 20, 2026: at 10:12 AM ET the S&P 500 was up 0.3% at 7,713 and the Dow 0.7%. We now see a 62% chance of an S&P 500 gain, changing the 9 AM no-call (48%) to an up call. Health care and 3M lead; chips lag.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $769.93 (SPY) at 10:21 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: The S&P 500 is up 0.3% at 7,713 after rebounding from a 7,668 low in the first half hour, with health care, small caps and 3M leading. Weak chip stocks are the main risk to a higher close. Support 7,690 (Monday's close) and 7,668 (today's low); resistance 7,745 and 7,810 (S&P 500 index)
• Nasdaq-100: QQQ is up 0.05% at $718.75 after recovering from $710.39, as drops of about 2% in AMD, Intel and Arm offset a gain in Tesla. Netflix reports after the close and Tesla and Meta on Wednesday, which may keep buyers cautious.
• Dow Jones: DIA is up 0.75% at $522.79, with 3M up 5% and RTX up 1.8% after strong results. A cushion of about 370 Dow points makes a higher close likely unless the morning rally fades.
• Russell 2000: IWM is up 1.1% at $274.21, near the day's high, as the 10-year yield dips to 5.10%. Small caps would give back the most if yields turn higher, but a 1% cushion favors a gain.

Stocks to watch

• MMM · 3M

  +5.2% at $170.37 by 10:13 AM ET (opened at $163.00)

  ▲Up 1.2%

  Catalyst: Q3 beat, raised 2026 EPS outlook and an expanded Amazon data-center deal

  3M climbed steadily from a $163.00 open to $170.37, near its $171.35 high, after adjusted EPS of $2.50 beat about $2.39 and it raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $9.10–$9.15. A gain that builds through the first 40 minutes on a new growth story often extends into the afternoon.

  Risk: 3M usually trades in a narrow range, so profit-taking after a 5% jump could stall it below the target.

  From $170.13 at 10:21 AM:high +1.66% at 12:50 PMclose +0.73%✓ Reached 1.2%

• RTX · RTX

  +1.8% at $195.58 by 10:13 AM ET, after a dip to $188.08

  ▲Up 1.2%

  Catalyst: Q3 beat; 2026 EPS outlook raised to $7.65–$7.75

  RTX fell 2.1% below Monday's close right after the open, then reversed to $195.58 on 2.1 million shares, almost half a normal day's volume. The reversal and the raised outlook point to a test of the $197.00 high.

  Risk: About $0.25 of the quarter's EPS came from a one-time tariff cost recovery, which could limit follow-through.

  From $194.57 at 10:21 AM:high +0.61% at 10:29 AMclose −0.63%✗ Missed 1.2% (+0.61%)

• EFX · Equifax

  +10.1% at $174.54 by 10:13 AM ET (opened at $166.11)

  ▲Up 1.5%

  Catalyst: Q3 revenue up 10%; U.S. mortgage revenue up 15%

  Equifax opened 4.8% higher and kept climbing to $174.54, near its $175.99 high, after third-quarter revenue rose 10% to $1.69 billion and U.S. mortgage revenue grew 15% despite a weaker mortgage market. A gap that widens after the open signals strong demand.

  Risk: Fourth-quarter revenue guidance came in below estimates, which could bring sellers on any pullback.

  From $174.54 at 10:21 AM:high +1.87% at 11:39 AMclose +1.15%✓ Reached 1.5%

• HAL · Halliburton

  +2.0% at $33.63 by 10:13 AM ET

  ▲Up 1.3%

  Catalyst: Q3 EPS and revenue beat; Brent oil near a five-month high

  Adjusted EPS of $0.60 beat about $0.58 and revenue of $5.7 billion beat about $5.58 billion, and Brent crude near $110 keeps a tailwind under oil-service stocks. About 6.1 million shares traded by 10:13 AM, more than half a normal day.

  Risk: Oil has eased from its morning high, with December WTI at $98.27 after touching $101.37, which could slow energy stocks.

  From $33.27 at 10:21 AM:high +1.53% at 3:29 PMclose +0.98%✓ Reached 1.3%

• GE · GE Aerospace

  -4.4% at $297.69 by 10:13 AM ET (opened at $302.23)

  ▼Down 1.2%

  Catalyst: Beat and raise overshadowed by rising costs and a revenue miss

  GE Aerospace opened at $302.23 and slid to $297.69, close to its $294.22 low, as investors focused on rising costs, a loss in its insurance business and revenue below estimates, with adjusted EPS only 1 cent above forecasts. Sellers have controlled the first 40 minutes.

  Risk: Demand for jet engines remains strong and guidance was raised, so dip buyers could step in.

  From $299.72 at 10:21 AM:low −1.28% at 11:51 AMclose +0.05%✓ Reached 1.2%

What is moving the market

• bullishStocks reverse higher after a soft open. The S&P 500 opened at 7,679.01, 0.15% below Monday's close, fell to 7,668.03, then climbed to 7,715.39 by 10:12 AM ET. The Dow was up 0.7% and the Russell 2000 0.9%, a broad rally beyond tech.
• bullishHealth care leads the sectors. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) was up 1.93% at $179.04 by 10:15 AM ET, the strongest sector. Small caps also gained as the 10-year Treasury yield dipped 3 basis points to 5.10%.
• bearishChip stocks give back Monday's rebound. Intel, AMD and Arm fell about 2% and Nvidia about 1% shortly before 10 AM ET, and the PHLX Semiconductor Index was down more than 1% after a 1.5% gain on Monday. A 32% first-day drop for South Korean data-center provider Elice revived doubts about the AI trade.
• mixedEarnings split: 3M and RTX up, GE Aerospace and GM down. 3M rose 5.2% and RTX 1.8% after beating estimates and raising outlooks, while GE Aerospace fell 4.4% on rising costs and GM 5.6% after only narrowing its 2026 profit range despite a $20 billion buyback.
• mixedOil eases from its high. December WTI crude was at $98.27, down 0.3%, at 10:04 AM ET after touching $101.37, while Brent traded near $110, a five-month high, on Middle East fighting. High fuel costs led President Trump to announce an $8 billion diesel relief program for farmers.
• bearishHousing data stays weak. Housing starts fell to a four-month low in September as mortgage rates stay high, another sign of a slow housing market.

The first 30 minutes

S&P 500 (+0.45% since the open)

7,713.49+0.30%

Nasdaq Composite (+0.42% since the open)

26,442.81+0.05%

Dow (+0.72% since the open)

52,332.42+0.70%

Russell 2000 (+0.93% since the open)

2,754.04+0.94%

S&P 500 range so far (open 7,679.01)

7,668.03–7,715.39-0.30% to +0.32%

VIX

18.19-1.36%

10-year Treasury yield

5.10%-3 bp

Leading sector: health care (XLV)

$179.04+1.93%

Lagging: chip stocks (PHLX Semiconductor Index)

Intel, AMD, Arm about -2%down more than 1%

As of 10:12 AM ET.

Still to come today

1. 10:00 AMPending home sales index (September) — Prior 71.2; the result was not confirmed at writing
2. 4:00 PMMarket close; Netflix earnings after the bell — Analysts expect revenue of $12.88 billion, up 12%, and EPS of $0.82 against $0.59 a year ago
3. 4:00 PMSpaceX earnings after the bell — Analysts expect revenue of $12.84 billion and EPS of $0.16, which would be its first profitable quarter
4. 4:00 PMAlso after the close: United Airlines, Capital One, Intuitive Surgical, Alaska Air — United's outlook on fuel costs matters with Brent crude near $110

1. Yahoo Finance markets overview (futures, VIX, yields, oil, gold, bitcoin) — Yahoo Finance
2. Why Are Nasdaq Futures Falling Premarket? CRWV, NBIS, TSLA, SPCX, MU, ASTS, NFLX, SLS Stocks In Focus — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance
3. US Stock Futures Mixed Ahead of Netflix Earnings and Reported $30 Billion OpenAI Fundraising — Yahoo Finance
4. Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today? (October 19, 2026) — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance
5. Market Pulse: October 19, 2026 — Tapeboard
6. GM third-quarter 2026 results (Form 8-K exhibit) — General Motors via SEC
7. RTX third-quarter 2026 results (Form 8-K exhibit) — RTX via SEC
8. General Motors (GM) stock quote and news — Yahoo Finance
9. RTX (RTX) stock quote and news — Yahoo Finance
10. GE Aerospace (GE) stock quote and news — Yahoo Finance
11. Northrop Grumman (NOC) stock quote and news — Yahoo Finance
12. Lockheed Martin (LMT) stock quote and news — Yahoo Finance
13. Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq mixed as AI trade rebound stalls — Yahoo Finance
14. Chip stocks decline as AI-trade rebound fizzles — Yahoo Finance
15. Chips lead Nasdaq lower, oil tops 5-month high: AlphaCheck — Yahoo Finance
16. 5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens on Tuesday — Investopedia via Yahoo Finance
17. S&P 500 (^GSPC) quote — Yahoo Finance
18. Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) quote — Yahoo Finance
19. Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) quote — Yahoo Finance
20. 3M (MMM) stock quote and news — Yahoo Finance
21. Equifax (EFX) stock quote and news — Yahoo Finance
22. Halliburton (HAL) stock quote and news — Yahoo Finance

• Every trading day at 9:00 AM ET, before the 9:30 AM open, we read index futures, overnight markets, economic data, earnings and the news, and publish the chance that the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Dow and Russell 2000 close higher, the expected move to the day’s high and low, and stocks with a catalyst that day.
• At 10:00 AM ET a second call follows, from the same research plus how the first 30 minutes traded — to see how much a forecast improves once the market is open.
• Each call is measured from the moment it could be acted on: the 9 AM call from the 9:30 AM open, the 10 AM call from the minute it went public. “To the high” is the rise from that price to the session’s highest price; “to the close”, to the closing price.
• A call is “up” at 55% or more and “down” at 45% or less; in between it is not scored. Direction is right when the S&P 500 ETF’s close beats (or trails) the previous close. A stock reaches its target when its move from the measuring point to the high — to the low for a “down” call — is at least the target.
• Prices are regular-session prices of the index ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM) and the stocks. Results are live while the market trades and final after the close; every past day stays online with its results.