Stock Market Prediction for Thursday, November 5, 2026

Dow futures rise, Nasdaq slides on chip selloff; S&P 500 flat after the midterm rally

Stocks are set for a mixed open on Thursday: Dow futures are up about 0.6% while Nasdaq-100 futures fall about 0.9% as chipmakers slide after Qualcomm's weak outlook and data-center regulation worries. We estimate a 48% chance the S&P 500 closes higher, no call. Strong jobless claims and productivity data help; Friday's jobs report is the key event.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $765.47 (SPY) at 9:30 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: S&P 500 futures are flat after Wednesday's 1.58% gain to 7,688.62. Strength in the Dow's value names offsets a chip selloff in the heavily weighted tech stocks, so the index lacks a clear direction. Support 7,650 and about 7,570 (Tuesday's close); resistance 7,750 and 7,800 (S&P 500 index)
• Nasdaq-100: Nasdaq-100 futures are down about 0.9% as Qualcomm, Arm, Broadcom, Nvidia and Micron fall on weak outlooks and worries that a Democratic Congress could slow AI data-center buildouts. Recovering a gap this size by the close is less likely than not.
• Dow Jones: Dow futures are up about 0.65% (+348 points) after Wednesday's 3.03% surge, the best day since April 2025, as money rotates from AI trades into value sectors. Some giveback after such a large day is the main risk.
• Russell 2000: Russell 2000 futures are up 0.18%. Small caps gain from the rotation away from megacap tech, but a 10-year yield near 4.90% and high odds of a December Fed hike limit the upside.

Stocks to watch

• APP · AppLovin

  +19% to +23% pre-market

  ▲Up 3%

  Catalyst: Q3 beat and above-forecast Q4 outlook

  Q3 revenue of $2.18 billion beat the $2.07 billion estimate and adjusted EBITDA of $1.84 billion topped $1.73 billion, with fourth-quarter guidance above expectations. Beats with raised outlooks often draw more buying after the open.

  Risk: After a gap of about 20%, profit-taking and a weak Nasdaq could keep it near or below the open.

  From $349.94 at 9:30 AM:high +4.40% at 9:54 AMclose +1.22%✓ Reached 3%

• U · Unity Software

  +22% pre-market

  ▲Up 3.5%

  Catalyst: Q3 EPS of $0.25 vs $0.05 expected

  Revenue of $622 million beat the $567 million estimate and earnings were five times the forecast, a surprise large enough to extend the move after the open.

  Risk: A 22% gap leaves room for a fade if software stocks sell off with the Nasdaq.

  From $48.06 at 9:30 AM:high +1.05% at 9:30 AMclose −3.73%Not yet

• ELF · e.l.f. Beauty

  +5% pre-market

  ▲Up 3%

  Catalyst: Fiscal Q2 EPS of $1.21 vs $0.60 expected

  Revenue of $521 million beat the $470 million estimate by about 11% and adjusted EPS doubled the forecast; a beat this large with a moderate gap leaves room to run.

  Risk: Consumer stocks could lag if yields and oil keep rising.

  From $114.00 at 9:30 AM:high +8.01% at 9:30 AMclose −1.45%✓ Reached 3%

• PTON · Peloton

  +7% pre-market

  ▲Up 3%

  Catalyst: Fiscal Q1 revenue beat

  Revenue of $559 million topped the $554 million estimate, and this volatile stock often extends earnings gaps in the first hour.

  Risk: EPS of $0.19 missed the $0.21 estimate, which could cap the buying.

  From $5.98 at 9:30 AM:high 0.00% at 9:30 AMclose −7.64%Not yet

• QCOM · Qualcomm

  -9% to -12% pre-market

  ▼Down 2%

  Catalyst: Weak current-quarter outlook

  Qualcomm guided adjusted EPS to $2.15–$2.35 against a $2.26 estimate, with soft smartphone chip revenue and a warning about rising supply-chain costs, while chip stocks are broadly lower.

  Risk: A strong data-center chip forecast and a CEO television interview today could draw dip buyers.

  From $150.30 at 9:30 AM:low −1.17% at 10:53 AMclose −0.53%Not yet

What is moving the market

• bearishChipmakers slide on weak outlooks. Qualcomm fell 9–12% before the bell after guiding current-quarter adjusted EPS to $2.15–$2.35 against a $2.26 estimate; Arm fell 4–5% despite a beat, and Broadcom (-3%), Nvidia (-2%) and Micron (-5%) also slipped.
• mixedMidterm rotation out of AI trades. Democrats won both chambers of Congress; on Wednesday the Dow jumped 3.03% and the S&P 500 rose 1.58% to 7,688.62. Investors worry data-center rules could slow the AI buildout and are moving into non-tech sectors.
• bullishLabor and productivity data beat. Initial jobless claims fell to 189,000 against a 197,000 estimate, the lowest since July. Q3 productivity rose 3.6% (estimate 2.9%) and unit labor costs fell 0.7%, easing wage-inflation worries.
• bearishRate-hike pressure. Futures pricing implies about an 82% chance of a Fed rate hike in December, the 10-year Treasury yield is near 4.90%, and the Bank of England raised its rate 0.25 point to 4% today, its first hike since 2023.
• bearishOil and gold climb. WTI crude rose 1.4% to $89.39 and gold 1.6% to $4,137 after oil fell Wednesday on hopes the election could speed a diplomatic end to the Iran war.
• mixedMixed earnings outside chips. AppLovin (+19–23%), Unity (+22%), Peloton (+7%) and e.l.f. Beauty (+5%) rose on results, while Zillow (-15%), Dutch Bros (-13%), Snap (-10%) and HubSpot (-9%) fell.

Before the bell

S&P 500 futures

7,724.00+0.05%

Nasdaq-100 futures

28,293.00-0.96%

Dow futures

53,851+0.65%

Russell 2000 futures

2,871.00+0.18%

VIX

16.81+1.20%

10-year Treasury yield

4.90%+0.8 bp

WTI crude oil (Dec)

$89.39+1.44%

Gold

$4,137.40+1.58%

Bitcoin

$79,459+0.28%

As of 9:02 AM ET.

Today’s calendar

1. 8:30 AMInitial jobless claims (week to Oct 31) — Actual 189,000; estimate 197,000; prior 195,000. Continuing claims rose 23,000 to 1.72 million.
2. 8:30 AMProductivity and unit labor costs (Q3, preliminary) — Productivity +3.6% vs +2.9% estimate (Q2 +2.1%); unit labor costs -0.7%.
3. 8:50 AMFed's Hammack on a panel in Zurich — Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack
4. 9:10 AMFed's Barkin in a moderated conversation — Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin
5. 9:30 AMUS stock market opens — Regular session 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM ET
6. 4:00 PMEarnings after the close — Airbnb, Cloudflare and Affirm are among the companies expected to report after the bell
7. 7:00 PMFed's Logan moderates a discussion — Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan
8. Fri 8:30 AMOctober jobs report — Payrolls consensus +65,000 (prior +29,000); unemployment rate expected at 4.2%

Chip rout sinks Nasdaq 3.7% and S&P 500 2.2% after the open, erasing the post-election gain

Stocks are sliding after the open, turning our 9 AM no-call into a down call: at 10:14 AM ET the S&P 500 was down 2.2% and the Nasdaq 3.7% as chip and AI data-center stocks plunged on post-election regulation fears. We estimate a 30% chance the S&P 500 closes higher, down from 48%. Friday's jobs report is the key event.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $748.85 (SPY) at 10:20 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: The S&P 500 opened near flat but fell 2.2% to 7,521.60 by 10:14 AM ET, erasing Wednesday's post-election gain. A close above 7,688.62 would need a 2.2% rally from here, which is rare after a first-hour slide this steep. Support 7,500 and 7,450; resistance about 7,570 (Tuesday's close) and 7,683 (today's high) (S&P 500 index)
• Nasdaq-100: The Nasdaq-100 was down 4.3% at 27,202 and QQQ near $664 as AMD (-13%), Micron (-12.7%), Tesla (-9.5%), Nvidia (-6.8%) and Meta (-5%) fell. Oversold chip stocks may bounce, but recovering a 4% loss in one session is unlikely.
• Dow Jones: The Dow rose as much as 0.7% to 53,710.61 right after the open but reversed to 52,772.88, down 1.09%. Chevron and Johnson & Johnson help, but the index would need about a 1.1% rally to close higher.
• Russell 2000: The Russell 2000 opened flat at 2,857.48 and fell 1.8% to 2,805.66, its session low at 10:14 AM ET. Lower Treasury yields are not offsetting the risk-off mood, and a 1.8% recovery would be needed to close higher.

Stocks to watch

• COST · Costco

  +2.1% to +2.8% (about $1,069 to $1,076)

  ▲Up 1.2%

  Catalyst: October comparable sales +11.1%; JPMorgan target raised to $1,150

  Net sales rose 12.6% to $24.50 billion in the four weeks to November 1, with U.S. comparable sales up 12.6%, and money leaving tech is moving into defensive retailers. The 52-week high of $1,096.50 is about 2% above the current price.

  Risk: A broad liquidation could pull even defensive leaders off their highs.

  From $1078.20 at 10:20 AM:high +0.29% at 10:58 AMclose +0.27%Not yet

• APP · AppLovin

  +32% (about $358)

  ▲Up 2.5%

  Catalyst: Q3 beat, Q4 outlook above estimates, $3.2 billion buyback increase

  Third-quarter revenue rose 55% to $2.185 billion, and the stock extended its pre-market gain of about 20% to about 32% while the Nasdaq-100 fell 4%, a sign of strong demand.

  Risk: A gain this large in a falling tech market can reverse quickly on profit-taking.

  From $359.65 at 10:20 AM:high +0.74% at 10:31 AMclose −1.51%Not yet

• EPAM · EPAM Systems

  +15%

  ▲Up 2%

  Catalyst: Q3 beat, raised EPS outlook, $500 million accelerated buyback

  Adjusted EPS of $3.51 beat the $3.40 estimate, full-year guidance rose to $13.23-$13.31, and a $500 million accelerated repurchase planned for the week of November 9 adds steady demand for the shares.

  Risk: Revenue grew only 2.3%, so a gap that rests mostly on buybacks could fade.

  From $159.55 at 10:20 AM:high +1.30% at 10:59 AMclose +1.30%Not yet

• MU · Micron Technology

  -12.2% to -12.7% (about $694 to $698)

  ▼Down 3%

  Catalyst: Memory and AI data-center selloff

  Memory makers lead the chip rout, with SanDisk down 17% and Western Digital and Seagate down about 13%, on fears that the new Democratic majorities could slow data-center construction. UBS estimates about 30% of expected 2028 US data-center capacity additions could be at risk.

  Risk: After a 12% drop in under an hour, a sharp short-covering bounce is likely at some point.

  From $700.72 at 10:20 AM:low −6.40% at 10:53 AMclose −3.96%✓ Reached 3%

What is moving the market

• bearishChip and AI data-center rout deepens. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 8% in early trading. AMD (-13%), Arm (-11% to -12%), Micron (-12.7%), SanDisk (-17%) and Nvidia (-6.8%) led losses, and Nebius fell about 15%.
• bearishPost-election regulation fears. Investors fear Democratic control of Congress and new governors, including in Texas, could slow data-center buildouts; UBS estimates about 30% of expected 2028 US data-center capacity additions could be at risk.
• bearishMegacaps drag the index. Tesla fell about 9.5%, SpaceX about 9%, Meta about 5% and Amazon about 2.4%, so the S&P 500 (-2.2%) is falling twice as much as the Dow (-1.1%).
• bearishVolatility jumps. The VIX rose about 37% to 22.68 by 10:14 AM ET, and bitcoin fell about 4% to near $77,000.
• mixedDefensive rotation and lower yields. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped about 3 basis points to 4.86%, WTI crude rose about 2% to $89.83, and Costco (+2.8%), Chevron and Johnson & Johnson gained.
• mixedSolid labor data. Jobless claims fell to 189,000 against a 197,000 estimate and Q3 productivity rose 3.6%, but markets still expect a Fed rate hike in December.

The first 30 minutes

S&P 500

7,521.60-2.18% (-2.10% since the open)

Nasdaq Composite

24,778.36-3.72% (-3.05% since the open)

Dow Jones

52,772.88-1.09% (-1.69% since the open)

Russell 2000

2,805.66-1.80% (-1.81% since the open)

S&P 500 range since the open

about 7,520-7,683.26Opened -0.1%, now near the low

VIX

22.68+37%

10-year Treasury yield

4.86%-3 bp

Leading

Earnings winners and defensivesAPP +32%, EPAM +15%

Lagging

Chips, memory and AI data-center stocksSOX -8%, AMD -13%, MU -12.7%

As of 10:14 AM ET.

Still to come today

1. 4:00 PMMarket close; earnings after the bell — Airbnb, Cloudflare and Affirm are among the companies expected to report
2. 7:00 PMFed's Logan moderates a discussion — Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan
3. Fri 8:30 AMOctober jobs report — Payrolls consensus +65,000 (prior +29,000); unemployment rate expected at 4.2%; average hourly earnings +0.3%
4. Fri 9:10 AMFed's Musalem speaks — St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem at Greater St. Louis, Inc.

1. Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq trade mixed as post-election relief rally cools, oil rises — Yahoo Finance
2. Dow futures rise more than 300 points after monster postelection rally: Live updates — CNBC
3. Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Shake Shack, Wendy's, Peloton, Unity Software & more — CNBC
4. Nasdaq futures slide over 1% as election rally gives way to weak chip earnings — Investing.com
5. Dow Jones futures gains as traders eyeball US jobs data, corporate earnings — FXStreet
6. How Are Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Trading After Blue Wave Rally? — Stocktwits
7. Thursday's big stock stories: What's likely to move the market in the next trading session — CNBC
8. Upcoming economic releases and Fed speakers, week of November 2, 2026 — TD Economics
9. Nasdaq falls at open after midterms-fueled surge as chip, data center stocks fall — Reuters
10. Nasdaq extends opening slide to over 3% amid post-midterms rotation out of chips — Investing.com
11. AI, data-center stocks slip as Democratic sweep clouds expansion plans — Reuters
12. Why is SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust sliding today? — Investing.com
13. Why is Invesco QQQ Trust ETF sliding today? — Investing.com
14. Why is SanDisk stock tumbling today? — Investing.com
15. Why is Costco Wholesale stock rallying today? — Investing.com

• Every trading day at 9:00 AM ET, before the 9:30 AM open, we read index futures, overnight markets, economic data, earnings and the news, and publish the chance that the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Dow and Russell 2000 close higher, the expected move to the day’s high and low, and stocks with a catalyst that day.
• At 10:00 AM ET a second call follows, from the same research plus how the first 30 minutes traded — to see how much a forecast improves once the market is open.
• Each call is measured from the moment it could be acted on: the 9 AM call from the 9:30 AM open, the 10 AM call from the minute it went public. “To the high” is the rise from that price to the session’s highest price; “to the close”, to the closing price.
• A call is “up” at 55% or more and “down” at 45% or less; in between it is not scored. Direction is right when the S&P 500 ETF’s close beats (or trails) the previous close. A stock reaches its target when its move from the measuring point to the high — to the low for a “down” call — is at least the target.
• Prices are regular-session prices of the index ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM) and the stocks. Results are live while the market trades and final after the close; every past day stays online with its results.