Stock Market Prediction for Wednesday, November 4, 2026

Stocks set to jump at the open as Democrats win Congress; Dow futures up 2.2%, Nasdaq lags on AI worries

Stocks are set to open higher on November 4, 2026, after Democrats won the House and Senate and President Trump said he would accept the results. We estimate a 72% chance the S&P 500 closes higher. S&P 500 futures are up 1.2% and Dow futures 2.2%; the Nasdaq-100 lags on data-center worries. ISM services data is due at 10:00 AM.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $762.99 (SPY) at 9:30 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: Futures are up 1.2% at 7,686 after swinging from an overnight low of 7,490 as election results came in. With yields lower and the election settled, a down close would need most of the gap to vanish; weak AI stocks are the main drag. Support 7,600 and 7,569 (Tuesday's close); resistance 7,660 (overnight futures high, index terms) and 7,700 (S&P 500 index)
• Nasdaq-100: Nasdaq-100 futures are up only 0.4% because AI and data-center stocks are falling on fears of new limits on data centers, led by Texas. AMD's earnings beat offers some support, but Nvidia and Micron are lower before the bell.
• Dow Jones: Dow futures are up 2.2%, the biggest gain of the four, as money moves from AI names toward health care and consumer stocks. McDonald's is up about 2% after its earnings beat.
• Russell 2000: Russell 2000 futures are up 1.7% at 2,874. Lower Treasury yields help smaller, more indebted companies, and renewable-energy and health-insurer stocks are among the early gainers.

Stocks to watch

• NVO · Novo Nordisk

  +5.4% pre-market ($42.39 at 9:16 AM ET)

  ▲Up 1.8%

  Catalyst: Third-quarter beat and a raised 2026 outlook

  Novo reported a stronger-than-expected third quarter led by obesity drugs and raised its full-year sales and operating profit outlook. A beat-and-raise after a long slide tends to draw follow-through buying.

  Risk: Planned US list-price cuts for Wegovy and Ozempic from January 2027 could cap the rally after a 5% pre-market gain.

  From $42.73 at 9:30 AM:high +1.19% at 9:52 AMclose −0.89%Not yet

• CNC · Centene

  +4.1% pre-market ($70.24 at 9:15 AM ET)

  ▲Up 2.5%

  Catalyst: Democratic sweep lifts Affordable Care Act insurers

  Democratic control of Congress raises the odds of support for Affordable Care Act marketplace plans, a core Centene business. Molina is up about 6% and Centene about 4% before the bell.

  Risk: Any policy change needs the new Congress and a presidential signature, so the rally could fade.

  From $70.63 at 9:30 AM:high +3.54% at 9:52 AMclose +1.91%✓ Reached 2.5%

• MCD · McDonald's

  About +2% pre-market

  ▲Up 1.2%

  Catalyst: Q3 EPS $3.57 vs. $3.38 expected

  Adjusted earnings beat by about 5%, global same-store sales rose 1.5% vs. 1.4% expected, and US comparable sales fell only 0.2% vs. an expected 0.5% drop. Dow-listed defensive names are leading the futures.

  Risk: Revenue of $7.16 billion missed the $7.29 billion estimate, which could limit gains.

  From $268.37 at 9:30 AM:high +2.94% at 10:02 AMclose +2.43%✓ Reached 1.2%

• FSLR · First Solar

  +8.5% pre-market

  ▲Up 2.5%

  Catalyst: Democratic Congress lifts clean-energy stocks

  A Democratic Congress lowers the risk of further cuts to the clean-energy tax credits behind US solar demand. Renewable names lead the pre-market, with Plug Power up 10.6%.

  Risk: Already up 8.5% before the open, the stock may give back part of the gain.

  From $206.00 at 9:30 AM:high +4.31% at 9:37 AMclose −1.67%✓ Reached 2.5%

• AMD · Advanced Micro Devices

  +1.4% pre-market ($490.72 at 9:16 AM ET)

  ▲Up 1.8%

  Catalyst: Record Q3: data-center revenue up 97%, outlook above estimates

  AMD posted revenue of $13.4 billion and its largest, most profitable quarter, with data-center sales nearly doubling. The stock rose about 7% after hours before data-center worries trimmed the gain, leaving room to recover if chip stocks steady.

  Risk: Fears of data-center limits in Texas and elsewhere could keep chip stocks under pressure after a 3.7% gain on Tuesday.

  From $485.43 at 9:30 AM:high +6.01% at 9:48 AMclose +1.65%✓ Reached 1.8%

What is moving the market

• bullishDemocrats win the House and Senate. Democrats took control of both chambers in Tuesday's midterms, and President Trump said he would accept the results and work with Democrats. Dow futures were up 1,131 points, or 2.2%, at 9:06 AM ET, and the VIX fell about 13% to 18.
• bearishData-center worries hit AI stocks. Texas governor-elect Gina Hinojosa has pledged a moratorium on new data centers; Texas holds about 27% of US data-center capacity, per Wells Fargo. CoreWeave fell about 8% and Nvidia and Micron more than 1% before the bell, holding Nasdaq-100 futures to +0.4%.
• bullishLower yields and a weaker dollar. The 10-year Treasury yield fell about 6 basis points to 4.91% and the dollar index slipped 0.4% to 101.32. Gold rose 2.9% to about $4,053 an ounce, while WTI crude fell 3% to about $93 a barrel.
• bullishEarnings beats from AMD, Novo Nordisk and McDonald's. AMD's data-center revenue rose 97% and its outlook beat estimates; Novo Nordisk raised its 2026 forecast; McDonald's earned $3.57 a share vs. $3.38 expected. CVS Health beat, raised guidance and plans to split in two, yet trades about 5% lower.
• mixedPrivate hiring tops forecasts. ADP said private employers added 86,000 jobs in October, above the 75,000 expected. Steady hiring supports the growth outlook but gives the Fed less reason to cut rates quickly.

Before the bell

S&P 500 futures

7,686.00+1.17%

Nasdaq-100 futures

28,417.00+0.39%

Dow futures

53,026+2.18%

Russell 2000 futures

2,874.00+1.73%

VIX

18.02-13.5%

10-year Treasury yield

4.906%-6 bp

WTI crude oil

$93.20-3.0%

Gold

$4,052.80+2.9%

Dollar index

101.32-0.39%

As of 9:06 AM ET.

Today’s calendar

1. 7:00 AMMBA mortgage applications — 30-year mortgage rate 7.30%, down from 7.37%
2. 8:15 AMADP private payrolls (October) — Actual +86,000 vs. 75,000 expected
3. Before 9:30 AMEarnings before the open — Novo Nordisk raised its 2026 outlook; McDonald's EPS $3.57 vs. $3.38 expected; CVS Health raised guidance and plans to split into two companies
4. 9:30 AMUS stock market opens — Normal full session to 4:00 PM ET
5. 10:00 AMISM services PMI (October) — Forecast 54.7; prior 54.9
6. 10:30 AMEIA weekly crude oil inventories — Oil is down about 3% this morning, near $93 a barrel
7. 4:00 PMEarnings after the close — Qualcomm, Arm, MercadoLibre, McKesson, Allstate and MetLife are among the companies scheduled to report

Stocks extend post-election rally: S&P 500 up 1.8%, Nasdaq 2.5% as Apple, Amazon and Microsoft jump

Stocks are rallying after the open on November 4, 2026, confirming our 9 AM call: the S&P 500 was up 1.8% at 10:13 AM ET and the Nasdaq 2.5%, extending the post-election rally led by Apple, Amazon and Microsoft. We estimate a 75% chance the S&P 500 closes higher, up from 72%. ISM services printed 54.5, slightly below forecasts.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $768.10 (SPY) at 10:19 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: The S&P 500 was at 7,701.56 at 10:12 AM ET, up 1.75% on the day and 0.86% above its 9:30 open, near its morning high. A down close would need a drop of about 1.7% from here; the main risk is a reversal in the mega-cap stocks that led the gain. Support 7,636 (today's open) and 7,600; resistance 7,706 (morning high) and 7,750 (S&P 500 index)
• Nasdaq-100: QQQ was up 2.1% at $699.86 at 10:13 AM ET, reversing its pre-market lag as Apple rose 6.2% to a record, Amazon 7.7% and Microsoft 6.3%. Chip and data-center stocks still trail, with Nvidia down 0.4% and CoreWeave down 5.8%.
• Dow Jones: The Dow was up 1,085 points, or 2.1%, at 52,872 at 10:13 AM ET, 0.9% above its open after touching 53,033. Apple, Amazon and Microsoft, all Dow members, are adding to the gain.
• Russell 2000: The Russell 2000 was up about 1.5% but no higher than its opening level, the weakest of the four since the open; IWM traded at $283.24, below its $284.17 open. Lower yields help small caps, but buyers have favored the largest tech stocks.

Stocks to watch

• AAPL · Apple

  +6.2% to a record $352.49 at 10:13 AM ET

  ▲Up 1%

  Catalyst: Seen as a defensive winner of the Democratic sweep; cooling memory-chip prices

  Apple jumped to an all-time high after falling 2% on Tuesday, and Evercore ISI's Amit Daryanani called it the name to keep owning when investors turn defensive. It trades near its day's high of $353.60, a sign buyers remain in control.

  Risk: After a 6% jump in one of the largest US stocks, profit-taking could cap further gains.

  From $352.88 at 10:19 AM:high +0.31% at 10:30 AMclose +0.31%Not yet

• XYZ · Block

  +15.4% at $87.73 at 10:14 AM ET

  ▲Up 2%

  Catalyst: Q3 beat and raised full-year guidance

  Block earned an adjusted $1.13 a share on $6.72 billion of revenue, above estimates of $1.03 and $6.59 billion, and raised its outlook. The gain widened from about 9% before the open to more than 15%, and the stock trades near its day's high of $88.18.

  Risk: A 15% gain in one morning invites profit-taking later in the day.

  From $87.87 at 10:19 AM:high +0.42% at 10:20 AMclose −0.84%Not yet

• FSLR · First Solar

  +11% at $206.39 after the open

  ▲Up 2.5%

  Catalyst: Democratic Congress lifts clean-energy stocks

  A Democratic Congress lowers the risk of further cuts to the clean-energy tax credits behind US solar demand. The gain widened from 8.5% before the open to 11%, and Enphase is up about 11% as well.

  Risk: Policy-driven gains of 10% or more often give back part of the move once the morning buying fades.

  From $207.45 at 10:19 AM:high +0.04% at 10:19 AMclose −2.35%Not yet

• AMD · Advanced Micro Devices

  +3.2% at $499.40 at 10:13 AM ET (day's range $476.50-$514.61)

  ▲Up 2%

  Catalyst: Record Q3: data-center revenue up 97%, outlook above estimates

  AMD swung from a 1.5% loss to a 6.3% gain in the first 45 minutes as the Nasdaq rallied, showing strong demand for the shares after a record quarter. A 2% rise from here would still leave it below the morning high.

  Risk: Fears of data-center limits after the Texas result keep chip stocks volatile, and Nvidia is slightly lower.

  From $498.41 at 10:19 AM:high +0.38% at 10:20 AMclose −1.00%Not yet

• CNC · Centene

  +5.9% at $71.47 at 10:14 AM ET

  ▲Up 2%

  Catalyst: Democratic sweep lifts Affordable Care Act insurers

  Democratic control of Congress raises the odds of support for Affordable Care Act marketplace plans, a core Centene business. The stock touched $73.13 earlier, about 2.3% above the current price.

  Risk: Any policy change needs the new Congress and a presidential signature, so the rally could fade.

  From $71.94 at 10:19 AM:high +0.63% at 10:28 AMclose +0.06%Not yet

What is moving the market

• bullishPost-election rally broadens. Democrats won both chambers of Congress, and investors read the result as a divided government that limits sharp policy shifts. At 10:13 AM ET the Dow was up 1,085 points (2.1%) and the S&P 500 1.75%, and the VIX fell 17% to 17.2.
• bullishMega-cap tech takes the lead. Apple rose 6.2% to a record $352.49, Amazon 7.7% and Microsoft 6.3%, lifting the Nasdaq Composite 2.45%. At 9:06 AM ET Nasdaq-100 futures had been up only 0.4%.
• bearishData-center stocks still lag. CoreWeave fell 5.8% and Nvidia 0.4% after Texas governor-elect Gina Hinojosa's pledge to halt new data-center construction. AMD swung between a 1.5% loss and a 6.3% gain after its record quarter.
• mixedServices growth cools slightly. The ISM services index fell to 54.5 in October from 54.9, against 54.7 expected. New orders slowed to 55.9 from 59.8, employment rose to 51.4 from 50.1, and the prices index eased to 73.0 from 74.0.
• bullishLower yields and oil. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped about 2 basis points to 4.93%, WTI crude fell about 2.5% to $93.74 a barrel, and gold rose 2.7% to about $4,047 an ounce.
• mixedBig earnings moves. Block rose 15.4% and Duolingo about 34% after strong results, while CVS Health fell about 11% despite raising guidance and announcing a plan to split in two.

The first 30 minutes

S&P 500

7,701.56+1.75% (+0.86% since the open)

Nasdaq Composite

25,994.64+2.45% (+1.33% since the open)

Dow Jones

52,872.15+2.10% (+0.88% since the open)

Russell 2000

2,855+1.5% (flat since the open)

S&P 500 range since the open

7,635.81-7,705.89Opened +0.88%

VIX

17.22-17%

10-year Treasury yield

4.93%-2 bp

Leading

Mega-cap tech, solar, health insurersAAPL +6.2%, FSLR +11%, CNC +6%

Lagging

AI data-center stocks, CVS HealthCoreWeave -5.8%, CVS -11%

As of 10:13 AM ET.

Still to come today

1. 10:30 AMEIA weekly crude oil inventories — WTI crude is down about 2.5%, near $93.74 a barrel
2. 4:00 PMUS stock market closes — Normal full session; no early close
3. After 4:00 PMEarnings after the close — Qualcomm, Arm, MercadoLibre, McKesson, Allstate and MetLife are among the companies scheduled to report

1. Dow futures soar 1,000 points as big midterm wins by Democrats remove political uncertainty risk on Wall Street: Live updates — CNBC
2. Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures mixed after Democrats take control of House, Senate — Yahoo Finance
3. US stock futures mixed amid key Democratic midterm election wins — Fox Business
4. Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Fall As Markets Weigh A Potential Democratic Sweep In Midterms: DJT, AMD, SMCI, SOXL In Focus — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance
5. E-mini S&P 500 Dec 26 (ES=F) — Yahoo Finance
6. E-mini Nasdaq-100 Dec 26 (NQ=F) — Yahoo Finance
7. E-mini Dow Dec 26 (YM=F) — Yahoo Finance
8. E-mini Russell 2000 (RTY=F) — Yahoo Finance
9. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock quote and news — Yahoo Finance
10. Novo Nordisk (NVO) stock quote and news — Yahoo Finance
11. Centene (CNC) stock quote and news — Yahoo Finance
12. CVS Health (CVS) stock quote and news — Yahoo Finance
13. Stock market today: Dow jumps over 1,000 points, S&P 500 and Nasdaq gain after Democrats win control of Congress — Yahoo Finance
14. Wall St opens higher as Democrats win Congress; data center stocks slide — Reuters via The Standard
15. Services PMI at 54.5%; October 2026 ISM Services PMI Report — Institute for Supply Management via PR Newswire
16. S&P 500 (^GSPC) — Yahoo Finance
17. NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) — Yahoo Finance
18. Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) — Yahoo Finance
19. iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) — Yahoo Finance
20. Apple (AAPL) stock quote and news — Yahoo Finance
21. Block (XYZ) stock quote and news — Yahoo Finance
22. Top stock gainers today — Yahoo Finance

• Every trading day at 9:00 AM ET, before the 9:30 AM open, we read index futures, overnight markets, economic data, earnings and the news, and publish the chance that the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Dow and Russell 2000 close higher, the expected move to the day’s high and low, and stocks with a catalyst that day.
• At 10:00 AM ET a second call follows, from the same research plus how the first 30 minutes traded — to see how much a forecast improves once the market is open.
• Each call is measured from the moment it could be acted on: the 9 AM call from the 9:30 AM open, the 10 AM call from the minute it went public. “To the high” is the rise from that price to the session’s highest price; “to the close”, to the closing price.
• A call is “up” at 55% or more and “down” at 45% or less; in between it is not scored. Direction is right when the S&P 500 ETF’s close beats (or trails) the previous close. A stock reaches its target when its move from the measuring point to the high — to the low for a “down” call — is at least the target.
• Prices are regular-session prices of the index ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM) and the stocks. Results are live while the market trades and final after the close; every past day stays online with its results.