Stock Market Prediction for Tuesday, November 3, 2026

Stocks set for a flat open on Election Day as chips lift Nasdaq futures and Apple drags the Dow

Stocks are set to open mixed on Election Day: S&P 500 futures are near flat, Nasdaq-100 futures up about 0.6% as chipmakers rebound, and Dow futures down 0.2–0.4% as Apple falls 4% on a weak margin forecast. We estimate a 52% chance the S&P 500 closes higher. JOLTS is at 10:00 AM; election results come after the close.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $752.73 (SPY) at 9:30 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: Futures are near flat after Monday's 0.51% drop: a chip rebound and lower oil offset Apple's slide and a 4.91% 10-year yield. With the VIX near 21 and the vote count after the close, we expect a choppy, range-bound session. Pivot 7,575 (Monday's futures settle); support 7,530 and 7,500; resistance 7,620 and 7,650 (S&P 500 December futures)
• Nasdaq-100: Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.6–0.8% as Micron, AMD and Intel rise, a rebound after Monday's 1.07% Nasdaq drop left the Nasdaq-100 more than 10% below its Oct. 6 record. Apple (-4%) and Palantir (-6%) are drags; AMD reports after the close.
• Dow Jones: Dow futures are down 0.2–0.4%, giving back part of Monday's 0.41% gain, mostly because Apple fell about 4% on a weak holiday-quarter margin forecast. A rotation back into tech may also cap the Dow.
• Russell 2000: Russell 2000 futures are up 0.29%. Falling oil helps, but a 10-year yield near 4.91% and a 30-year near 5.28% keep pressure on rate-sensitive small caps.

Stocks to watch

• LSCC · Lattice Semiconductor

  +14.0% pre-market

  ▲Up 3%

  Catalyst: Record Q3 revenue of $291 million, up 118%; guides about 130% Q4 growth

  Triple-digit growth with an even stronger fourth-quarter outlook lands on a morning when chipmakers lead Nasdaq-100 futures higher, which supports follow-through after the open.

  Risk: Stocks up 10% or more before the open often give back part of the gap in the first hour.

  From $107.99 at 9:30 AM:high +2.97% at 10:57 AMclose +1.64%Not yet

• FISV · Fiserv

  +10.3% pre-market

  ▲Up 2%

  Catalyst: Raised its cost-savings target to $1 billion and plans a $500 million buyback

  A larger savings target and a buyback are concrete support for earnings per share, and heavy pre-market buying suggests investors will defend the gap early.

  Risk: After a 10% gap, early profit-taking can push the stock below its open.

  From $56.59 at 9:30 AM:high +2.46% at 10:55 AMclose +2.12%✓ Reached 2%

• RVTY · Revvity

  +7% pre-market

  ▲Up 2%

  Catalyst: Raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $5.40–$5.45 from $5.30–$5.40

  A guidance raise is the strongest same-day driver for a life-science tools stock, and its defensive health-care profile suits a cautious Election Day session.

  Risk: A broad market dip or sector selling could cap the move after a 7% gap.

  From $163.01 at 9:30 AM:high +5.36% at 9:36 AMclose +2.91%✓ Reached 2%

• BE · Bloom Energy

  +7% pre-market

  ▲Up 3%

  Catalyst: Non-binding plan with California Resources to study fuel-cell power

  A potential large new power customer is the kind of headline Bloom trades on, and its wide daily swings make a 3% push above the open realistic if tech sentiment holds.

  Risk: The agreement is non-binding, and the stock tends to swing hard with AI and tech sentiment.

  From $210.33 at 9:30 AM:high +4.84% at 10:19 AMclose +2.95%✓ Reached 3%

• AAPL · Apple

  -4.1% pre-market

  ▼Down 1.2%

  Catalyst: Weak holiday-quarter gross margin forecast; iPad sales missed

  Record revenue of $114.5 billion was overshadowed by the margin outlook and a Greater China miss; with investors already rotating out of tech, we expect sellers to test the stock again after the open.

  Risk: The earnings beat and Apple's buyback can draw dip buyers who close part of the gap.

  From $325.54 at 9:30 AM:low −0.06% at 9:30 AMclose +1.53%Not yet

What is moving the market

• bearishApple's margin forecast. Apple fell about 4% before the bell after forecasting a weaker holiday-quarter gross margin, despite record revenue of $114.5 billion. It is the main weight on Dow futures, down 0.2–0.4%.
• bullishChipmakers lead a tech rebound. Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.6–0.8% as Micron, AMD and Intel gained, after the Nasdaq fell 1.07% Monday and the S&P 500 lost 0.51% in a rotation out of tech.
• bullishOil falls on U.S.-Iran deal hopes. Brent dropped about 3% to near $101.54 and WTI fell to about $94–95, a second daily decline on hopes of a diplomatic settlement to the eight-month conflict. Lower oil eases inflation worries.
• bearishHigh long-term yields. The 10-year Treasury yield edged up to about 4.91% and the 30-year to about 5.28%, keeping pressure on stock valuations and small caps.
• mixedMidterm election results after the close. Prediction markets give Democrats about a 73–75% chance of winning the Senate. Results come in overnight, so traders may hold back until the count is clearer.
• mixedSharp earnings reactions. Shopify (about -16%), Dynatrace (-15%), Zebra Technologies (-14%) and Palantir (-6%) fell before the bell despite several beats, while Lattice Semiconductor (+14%) and Fiserv (+10%) jumped.

Before the bell

S&P 500 futures

7,578.25+0.05%

Nasdaq-100 futures

28,292.50+0.59%

Dow futures

51,911-0.43%

Russell 2000 futures

2,825.90+0.29%

VIX

20.86-1.37%

10-year Treasury yield

4.91%+1.7 bp

WTI crude (Dec)

$95.11-1.40%

Gold

$3,967.00-0.07%

Bitcoin

$77,079-0.86%

As of 9:11 AM ET.

Today’s calendar

1. 9:30 AMUS stock market opens — Normal session to 4:00 PM ET on Election Day
2. 10:00 AMJOLTS job openings (September) — Expected 7.1 million; prior 7.09 million. Quits expected 3.09 million; prior 3.06 million
3. 10:00 AMFactory orders — Expected +1.1%; prior +0.1%
4. 4:00 PMAMD earnings after the close — Amgen and Arista Networks are also on today's earnings calendar
5. 6:00 PMFirst midterm polls close — House and Senate results come in through the night

Stocks lean higher on Election Day as chips rally; strong job openings lift yields, Apple drags the Dow

Stocks are edging higher after the open: the S&P 500 is up 0.3% and the Nasdaq-100 0.7% as chipmakers rally, while the Dow is down 0.6%. We estimate a 58% chance the S&P 500 closes higher, changing our 9 AM no-call (52%) to a modest up call. Strong job openings lifted yields; election results come after the close.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $754.30 (SPY) at 10:19 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: The S&P 500 opened at 7,552.92 and has held above Monday's 7,541.40 close all morning, trading between 7,545 and 7,570 as chip gains offset a 10-year yield pushed toward 4.95% by strong job openings. We expect a narrow, choppy session before election results. Support 7,545 (today's low) and 7,541 (Monday's close), then 7,500; resistance 7,570 (today's high) and 7,600 (S&P 500 index)
• Nasdaq-100: The Nasdaq-100 is up about 0.7% as AMD (+4.8%), Micron (+3.2%) and Nvidia (+3%) rebound after Monday's 1.07% Nasdaq drop, while Apple (-1.8%), Palantir (-4.6%) and Shopify (-9.5%) lag. AMD's results after the close are the next test for chips.
• Dow Jones: The Dow opened near flat at 51,932.63 and slid to about 51,668 (-0.61%) by 10:14 AM, with Apple down about 1.8% and money moving back into chips after Monday's blue-chip gains. It needs a 0.6% rebound to close higher, which we think is less likely than not.
• Russell 2000: The Russell 2000 was up 0.59% at 2,822 just before 10:00 AM, near its high since the 2,812 open, helped by lower oil. The 10-year yield's rise toward 4.95% after the job openings report is the main risk for rate-sensitive small caps.

Stocks to watch

• BE · Bloom Energy

  +11.5% in early trading (opened $210.33, high $219.93)

  ▲Up 2.5%

  Catalyst: Barclays upgrade to Overweight; non-binding fuel-cell power plan with California Resources

  Bloom has climbed steadily from its open to new highs on an upgrade that cites stronger-than-expected demand and a possible large new power customer, and the stock often keeps trending on news days.

  Risk: After an 11.5% jump, any turn in AI-power sentiment can bring a sharp pullback, and the California Resources plan is non-binding.

  From $219.23 at 10:19 AM:high +0.58% at 10:19 AMclose −1.23%Not yet

• LSCC · Lattice Semiconductor

  +13.3% in early trading (opened $107.99, low $101.78)

  ▲Up 2%

  Catalyst: Record Q3 revenue of $291 million, up 118%; guides about 130% Q4 growth

  Buyers absorbed an early dip to $101.78 and lifted the stock back above its $107.99 open, a sign of real demand after triple-digit growth, on a morning when chipmakers lead the market.

  Risk: The stock has already swung about 8% since the open and could retest the morning low.

  From $107.17 at 10:19 AM:high +3.76% at 10:57 AMclose +2.42%✓ Reached 2%

• AMD · Advanced Micro Devices

  +4.8% in early trading

  ▲Up 1.5%

  Catalyst: Chip rebound into third-quarter results after the close

  AMD is the strongest large chip stock this morning ahead of its report tonight, and stocks often keep rising into a closely watched release.

  Risk: Traders may lock in gains before the results, especially after a 4.8% rise.

  From $489.60 at 10:19 AM:high +1.16% at 11:04 AMclose +0.56%Not yet

• MU · Micron Technology

  +3.2% in early trading

  ▲Up 2%

  Catalyst: Chip rebound; Apple's memory warning puts memory pricing in focus

  Micron is among the leaders of the chip rebound, and Apple's warning about memory has drawn attention to memory pricing, which supports memory makers. A 2% rise above the 10 AM price is within a normal day's range for the stock.

  Risk: A rebound driven by bargain hunting can fade quickly if worries about AI spending return.

  From $858.63 at 10:19 AM:high +0.74% at 11:04 AMclose +0.16%Not yet

• RVTY · Revvity

  +12.1% in early trading (+7% pre-market)

  ▲Up 1.5%

  Catalyst: Q3 beat; raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $5.40–$5.45 from $5.30–$5.40

  The gain widened after the open, from about 7% before the bell to 12%, which shows buyers adding after a beat and a raised full-year forecast in a defensive sector.

  Risk: After a 12% jump, profit-taking can push the stock back toward its opening price.

  From $168.21 at 10:19 AM:high +1.76% at 10:50 AMclose −0.27%✓ Reached 1.5%

What is moving the market

• bearishStrong job openings lift yields. Job openings rose to 7.5 million in September, above the 7.1 million expected, and August was revised up to 7.2 million; quits rose to 3.4 million. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to about 4.94–4.97% from about 4.89% on Monday.
• bullishChipmakers lead a tech rebound. AMD (+4.8%), Intel (+3.4%), Micron (+3.2%) and Nvidia (+3%) rose in early trading, lifting the Nasdaq-100 about 0.7% after Monday's 1.07% Nasdaq drop.
• bearishApple and software stocks lag. Apple was down about 1.8%, trimming a 4% pre-market loss after its weak margin forecast, while Shopify (-9.5%) and Palantir (-4.6%) fell after earnings. The Dow was down 0.61% at 10:14 AM.
• mixedOil pares its drop. WTI crude was down about 0.6% near $95.89 after trading down 2.3% at $94.23 earlier in the morning on hopes for a U.S.-Iran settlement.
• mixedElection results after the close. Polls start closing at 6:00 PM ET and House and Senate results come in overnight. Prediction markets give Democrats about a 73–75% chance of winning the Senate, so traders may trim risk before the 4:00 PM close.

The first 30 minutes

S&P 500

7,563.52+0.29% (+0.14% since the open)

Nasdaq-100

28,192.90+0.73%

Dow Jones

51,667.84-0.61% (-0.51% since the open)

Russell 2000

2,822.33+0.59% (+0.35% since the open)

S&P 500 opening range

7,545.39–7,570.37Open 7,552.92; prior 7,541.40

VIX

20.74-1.94%

10-year Treasury yield

4.94–4.97%+5 to +8 bp

Leading

ChipmakersAMD +4.8%, Micron +3.2%

Lagging

Software and AppleShopify -9.5%, Apple -1.8%

As of 10:00–10:15 AM ET.

Still to come today

1. 4:00 PMUS stock market closes — Normal session; Election Day is not a market holiday
2. 4:00 PMAMD earnings after the close — Third-quarter results; Amgen and Arista Networks are also on today's earnings calendar
3. 6:00 PMFirst midterm polls close — House and Senate results come in through the night; the first market reaction will likely show in overnight futures

1. Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures waver ahead of midterm election results, AMD earnings — Yahoo Finance
2. Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Pfizer, Apple, Palantir, Zebra Technologies & more — CNBC
3. Stock market today: Live updates — CNBC
4. Stock Market Today Live, November 3, 2026: Apple, Palantir and Shopify Fall as Dow Futures Slide — StockTitan
5. Markets Mixed as US Midterm Election Day Arrives — SIA Wealth Management
6. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (September 2026) — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
7. Stock Market News — Investing.com
8. S&P 500 (^GSPC) — Yahoo Finance
9. Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) — Yahoo Finance
10. Russell 2000 (^RUT) — Yahoo Finance
11. Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (LSCC) — Yahoo Finance
12. Bloom Energy Corporation (BE) — Yahoo Finance

• Every trading day at 9:00 AM ET, before the 9:30 AM open, we read index futures, overnight markets, economic data, earnings and the news, and publish the chance that the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Dow and Russell 2000 close higher, the expected move to the day’s high and low, and stocks with a catalyst that day.
• At 10:00 AM ET a second call follows, from the same research plus how the first 30 minutes traded — to see how much a forecast improves once the market is open.
• Each call is measured from the moment it could be acted on: the 9 AM call from the 9:30 AM open, the 10 AM call from the minute it went public. “To the high” is the rise from that price to the session’s highest price; “to the close”, to the closing price.
• A call is “up” at 55% or more and “down” at 45% or less; in between it is not scored. Direction is right when the S&P 500 ETF’s close beats (or trails) the previous close. A stock reaches its target when its move from the measuring point to the high — to the low for a “down” call — is at least the target.
• Prices are regular-session prices of the index ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM) and the stocks. Results are live while the market trades and final after the close; every past day stays online with its results.