Stock Market Prediction for Monday, November 2, 2026

Stocks set to rebound as oil sinks 6% on Iran peace-talk reports; S&P 500 futures up 0.5%

Stocks are set to open higher on Monday, November 2, 2026, with S&P 500 futures up about 0.5% after Friday's 1.8% drop. We estimate a 63% chance the S&P 500 closes higher. A 6% plunge in oil on Iran peace-talk reports and a chip rebound lead; the 10 AM ISM report and Tuesday's midterms are the key risks.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $759.45 (SPY) at 9:30 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: Futures point to a 0.5% gap higher after Friday's 1.8% drop, helped by a 6% fall in oil. Election-eve caution and the 10:00 AM ISM report are the main risks to the rebound. Support 7,580 (Friday's close) and 7,500; resistance 7,650 and 7,720 (Thursday's close) (S&P 500 index)
• Nasdaq-100: Nasdaq-100 futures lead with a 0.8% gain as Nvidia, AMD and Micron rebound from Friday's AI sell-off. Oracle's $10 billion stock sale and Apple's report after the close keep AI spending worries in play.
• Dow Jones: Dow futures are up about 305 points (0.6%) after Friday's 572-point drop to 51,770. Cheaper oil weighs on energy names but helps industrials and consumer stocks.
• Russell 2000: Small caps are likely to benefit from the drop in oil, but a 10-year yield near 4.91% remains a headwind for rate-sensitive borrowers. No clear Russell 2000 futures reading was confirmed this morning.

Stocks to watch

• CRWD · CrowdStrike

  +3.4% pre-market

  ▲Up 1.8%

  Catalyst: Deutsche Bank upgrade to Buy from Hold

  Deutsche Bank says the market underrates how much AI will expand cybersecurity spending, and Palo Alto Networks is up 2% in sympathy. Large-cap software upgrades often draw follow-through buying in the first hour.

  Risk: After a 3.4% gap the stock may give back part of the move if the tech rebound fades.

  From $253.00 at 9:30 AM:high +0.24% at 9:30 AMclose −4.42%✗ Missed 1.8% (+0.24%)

• RIVN · Rivian Automotive

  +3.8% pre-market

  ▲Up 2.5%

  Catalyst: UBS upgrade to Buy

  UBS calls the recent sell-off a buying opportunity ahead of a turn in the R2 SUV ramp. Rivian is a high-volatility stock, so a 2-3% rise from the open is within a normal daily range.

  Risk: Electric-vehicle stocks often fade early upgrade gains when the broader market weakens.

  From $12.75 at 9:30 AM:high +7.41% at 11:15 AMclose +3.45%✓ Reached 2.5%

• NVDA · Nvidia

  +1.5% pre-market

  ▲Up 1.8%

  Catalyst: AI chip rebound after Friday's 4.2% drop

  Chipmakers lead the pre-market rebound, with Micron up 2.7% and AMD up 2.2%, after Nvidia led Friday's decline. As the largest Nasdaq-100 weight, Nvidia tends to lead rebound days.

  Risk: Oracle's $10 billion stock sale and Kioxia's warning on flash memory prices could revive AI spending worries.

  From $207.53 at 9:30 AM:high +1.18% at 10:29 AMclose −2.64%✗ Missed 1.8% (+1.18%)

• ORCL · Oracle

  -2.5% pre-market

  ▼Down 1.5%

  Catalyst: $10 billion common stock offering

  A $10 billion share sale dilutes holders and highlights the cost of Oracle's AI data-center build-out. Large offerings usually price at a discount, which tends to weigh on the shares through the session.

  Risk: A broad tech rally could lift Oracle once the offering is priced.

  From $125.88 at 9:30 AM:low −5.92% at 3:48 PMclose −5.29%✓ Reached 1.5%

What is moving the market

• bullishOil plunges on Iran peace-talk reports. Brent fell 6.1% to $106.50 and WTI about 6% to below $98 after reports that Iran's supreme leader gave the government authority to hold peace talks. Oil rose more than 10% in October.
• bullishChip and AI rebound after Friday's slide. Micron is up 2.7%, AMD 2.2% and Nvidia 1.5% pre-market after the S&P 500 fell 1.8% and the Dow 572 points (1.1%) on Friday, a drop led by Nvidia, Caterpillar and Goldman Sachs.
• bearishAI spending and funding worries. Oracle is down more than 2.5% after a $10 billion stock offering, Alphabet lost 13.5% over two sessions after weak search revenue, and Kioxia fell about 14% in Tokyo after warning that flash price gains are stalling.
• mixedMidterm elections on Tuesday. Democrats are expected to win the House while Senate control is uncertain. Caution before the November 3 vote may limit buying into the close.
• mixedHigh yields and the ISM report. The 10-year Treasury yield is near 4.91% and mixed early Monday. The 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index (consensus 54.6, September 54.5, prices paid 77.9) can move rates.
• mixedBusy week of earnings and jobs data. Apple reports after the close today, McDonald's and Qualcomm later in the week, and the monthly jobs report is due later in the week.

Before the bell

S&P 500 pre-market indication

7,621.58+0.55%

Nasdaq-100 futures

Up 0.8%+0.8%

Dow futures

+305 points+0.6%

WTI crude oil

$97.53-6.3%

Brent crude oil

$106.50-6.1%

10-year Treasury yield

4.91%mixed

Gold

$3,944.58+1.77%

As of about 9:00 AM ET.

Today’s calendar

1. 9:30 AMStock market opens — Regular trading runs 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM ET
2. 9:45 AMS&P Global US manufacturing PMI, final (October) — Final reading of the October factory survey
3. 10:00 AMISM manufacturing PMI (October) — Consensus 54.6; September 54.5. Prices paid were 77.9 in September
4. 10:00 AMConstruction spending (September) — Monthly change in building outlays
5. 11:15 AMChicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks — The only Fed speaker on today's calendar
6. 11:30 AMTreasury 3- and 6-month bill auctions — Regular weekly bill sales
7. 2:00 PMFed Senior Loan Officer Survey — Quarterly read on bank lending standards
8. 3:00 PMTreasury refunding financing estimates — Federal borrowing estimates for the coming quarter
9. 4:00 PMApple earnings (after the close) — Quarterly results after the bell; the reaction comes in after-hours trading

Rebound holds after the open: S&P 500 up 0.6% as oil sinks 6% and factory data beat forecasts

Stocks opened higher on Monday, November 2, 2026, and held their gains: the S&P 500 was up 0.6% at 7,628 shortly after 10 AM ET. We now estimate a 70% chance it closes higher, confirming the 9 AM up call (63%). A 6% oil drop and a stronger ISM report lead; Oracle and Marvell lag before Apple's results.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $761.91 (SPY) at 10:17 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: The S&P 500 was up 0.64% at 7,628.56 at 10:05 AM ET after opening at 7,610.83, near the top of its early range. Cheaper oil and an ISM beat with cooler prices support the gain, while Oracle's share sale and election-eve caution cap it. Support 7,610 (opening low) and 7,580 (Friday's close); resistance 7,650 and 7,720 (Thursday's close) (S&P 500 index)
• Nasdaq-100: The Nasdaq Composite was up 0.77% near 10:12 AM ET, led by Amazon (+4%), Alphabet (+2.2%) and Nvidia (+1.6%). Oracle (-5.7%), Marvell (-6.8%) and a softer Apple ahead of its report limit the rebound.
• Dow Jones: The Dow was up about 1.1% at 52,327.80 near 10:12 AM ET, the strongest major index, with Amazon, Goldman Sachs, Sherwin-Williams and Home Depot among the leaders. Chevron (-2.2%) drags as oil falls.
• Russell 2000: The Russell 2000 was up 0.43% at 2,823.88 near 10:12 AM ET, lagging the large-cap indexes. Cheaper oil helps small companies, but a 10-year yield near 4.9% still weighs on rate-sensitive borrowers.

Stocks to watch

• AMZN · Amazon

  +4.0% at $249.92 (10:05 AM ET)

  ▲Up 1.2%

  Catalyst: Phillip Securities upgrade to Buy

  Amazon is rebounding from Friday's post-earnings drop and leads consumer discretionary, the top sector this morning. It has already traded as high as $251.13, and leaders on rebound days often set new highs later in the session.

  Risk: A 4% gain after a sharp sell-off can stall if the tech rebound fades before Apple's report.

  From $251.78 at 10:17 AM:high +0.81% at 10:45 AMclose −2.44%✗ Missed 1.2% (+0.81%)

• RIVN · Rivian Automotive

  +8.8% at $13.23 (10:05 AM ET)

  ▲Up 2.5%

  Catalyst: UBS upgrade to Buy, $17 target

  Rivian opened at $12.75 and was trading at its day's high of $13.24 shortly after 10 AM, as buyers backed UBS's call on the R2 ramp and better margins. For a stock this volatile, another 2-3% is within a normal range.

  Risk: After a near-9% gain, profit-taking can erase the move quickly if the market turns.

  From $13.30 at 10:17 AM:high +2.93% at 11:15 AMclose −0.86%✓ Reached 2.5%

• UAL · United Airlines Holdings

  +6.3% at $110.85 (10:05 AM ET)

  ▲Up 1.8%

  Catalyst: Oil down more than 6% on Iran peace-talk hopes

  Jet fuel is one of United's largest costs, and WTI fell 6.4% to $97.42. The stock has traded as high as $111.30, and airlines tend to extend gains when oil keeps sliding through the day.

  Risk: Any sign that the Iran talks are stalling would lift oil and reverse the airline move fast.

  From $110.94 at 10:17 AM:high +0.96% at 10:26 AMclose −1.53%✗ Missed 1.8% (+0.96%)

• ORCL · Oracle

  -5.7% at $123.24 (10:05 AM ET)

  ▼Down 1.5%

  Catalyst: $20 billion raise: $10 billion of stock and $10 billion of notes

  New shares are usually priced at a discount to the market, which tends to keep pressure on the stock until the deal is done. Oracle has already touched $122.23; a 1.5% drop from the 10 AM price would take it to about $121.40.

  Risk: A broad tech rally or strong demand for the offering could spark a rebound from a 6% loss.

  From $123.28 at 10:17 AM:low −3.94% at 3:48 PMclose −3.30%✓ Reached 1.5%

• MRVL · Marvell Technology

  -6.8% at $183.11 (10:05 AM ET)

  ▼Down 1.5%

  Catalyst: $115 billion all-stock deal to buy Lumentum

  Lumentum holders get 4.5 Marvell shares each and about 33% of the combined company, and merger-arbitrage funds usually short the buyer while holding the target. Marvell opened at $191.89 and has slid to $182.15, with Lumentum down about 11%.

  Risk: Chip stocks are rebounding broadly, and a bounce in AI names could lift Marvell off its low.

  From $185.08 at 10:17 AM:low −8.95% at 3:35 PMclose −7.39%✓ Reached 1.5%

What is moving the market

• bullishOil falls more than 6% on Iran peace-talk hopes. WTI was down 6.4% at $97.42 and Brent near $106 a barrel shortly after 10 AM ET. Airlines jumped (United +6.3%), while energy lagged with Exxon Mobil and Chevron each down about 2%.
• bullishISM manufacturing beats with cooler prices. The October ISM index rose to 55.5 from 54.5, above the 54.6 consensus. Production rose to 59.0 and new orders to 55.5, while prices paid eased to 75.2 from 77.9; the 10-year yield slipped about 3 basis points to 4.90%.
• bullishBig-cap rebound after Friday's 1.8% drop. Amazon rose 4% after a Phillip Securities upgrade, and Alphabet and Goldman Sachs gained about 2.2%, with Nvidia up 1.6%. The VIX fell 1.8% to 19.07.
• bearishAI funding and deal worries. Oracle fell 5.7% after a $20 billion raise in stock and notes, and Marvell fell 6.8% and Lumentum about 11% on their $115 billion all-stock deal.
• mixedEarly gap-ups fading. CrowdStrike opened at $253.34 after a Deutsche Bank upgrade but was down 3.1% at $242.59 by 10:04 AM, and Estée Lauder turned from a $112.26 open to a 1.9% loss despite a raised outlook. The S&P 500 has added only 0.23% since the open.
• mixedApple earnings and midterm elections ahead. Apple and Palantir report after Monday's close, and the US midterm elections are on Tuesday, November 3. Caution before the vote may limit buying into the close.

The first 30 minutes

S&P 500 vs Friday's close

7,628.56+0.64%

S&P 500 since the 9:30 open (range 7,610-7,630)

Opened 7,610.83+0.23%

Nasdaq Composite

25,633.78+0.77%

Dow Jones Industrial Average

52,327.80+1.08%

Russell 2000

2,823.88+0.43%

VIX

19.07-1.8%

10-year Treasury yield

4.90%-3 bp

WTI crude oil

$97.42-6.4%

Leading / lagging sectors

Consumer discretionary / energyAmazon +4%, Exxon -2%

As of 10:05-10:12 AM ET.

Still to come today

1. 11:15 AMChicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks — The only Fed speaker on today's calendar
2. 11:30 AMTreasury 3- and 6-month bill auctions — Regular weekly bill sales
3. 2:00 PMFed Senior Loan Officer Survey — Quarterly read on bank lending standards
4. 3:00 PMTreasury refunding financing estimates — Federal borrowing estimates for the coming quarter
5. 4:00 PMMarket close; Apple and Palantir earnings after the bell — The reaction comes in after-hours trading. Election Day on Tuesday, November 3, is a full trading day

1. Stock market today: Live updates — CNBC
2. United States Stock Market Index — Trading Economics
3. United States Stock Market News — Trading Economics
4. United States Economic Calendar — Trading Economics
5. United States ISM Manufacturing PMI — Trading Economics
6. Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq recover from bruising sell-off as oil prices fall — Yahoo Finance
7. S&P 500 (^GSPC) — Yahoo Finance
8. Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) — Yahoo Finance
9. Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) — Yahoo Finance
10. United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) — Yahoo Finance
11. Oracle Corporation (ORCL) — Yahoo Finance
12. Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) — Yahoo Finance
13. CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) — Yahoo Finance
14. The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) — Yahoo Finance

• Every trading day at 9:00 AM ET, before the 9:30 AM open, we read index futures, overnight markets, economic data, earnings and the news, and publish the chance that the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Dow and Russell 2000 close higher, the expected move to the day’s high and low, and stocks with a catalyst that day.
• At 10:00 AM ET a second call follows, from the same research plus how the first 30 minutes traded — to see how much a forecast improves once the market is open.
• Each call is measured from the moment it could be acted on: the 9 AM call from the 9:30 AM open, the 10 AM call from the minute it went public. “To the high” is the rise from that price to the session’s highest price; “to the close”, to the closing price.
• A call is “up” at 55% or more and “down” at 45% or less; in between it is not scored. Direction is right when the S&P 500 ETF’s close beats (or trails) the previous close. A stock reaches its target when its move from the measuring point to the high — to the low for a “down” call — is at least the target.
• Prices are regular-session prices of the index ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM) and the stocks. Results are live while the market trades and final after the close; every past day stays online with its results.