Stock Market Prediction for Friday, October 30, 2026

Stocks set to open lower as Amazon and Intel results hit tech; Nasdaq futures down 2.6%, Dow flat

Stocks are set to open lower on Friday, Oct. 30, led by tech: at 8:27 AM ET Nasdaq-100 futures were down 2.6% and S&P 500 futures 1.1%, with the Dow flat. We estimate a 30% chance the S&P 500 closes above Thursday's close. Amazon and Intel results revived AI-spending fears; Chicago PMI (9:45 AM) and Fed speakers follow.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $761.40 (SPY) at 9:30 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: S&P 500 futures were down 1.09% at 8:27 AM ET as AI-linked megacaps fell (Amazon -7%, Nvidia -2.8%). A gap of about 1% is rarely fully recovered by the close, and weekend risk from the Strait of Hormuz and Tuesday's midterms limits dip buying. Support 7,650 and 7,600; resistance 7,700 and 7,754, Thursday's settle (S&P 500 December futures)
• Nasdaq-100: Nasdaq-100 futures were down 2.6%, the worst of the four, on Amazon, Intel and a chip sell-off (Arm -9.7%, Micron -5.6% before the bell). We expect a wide, volatile range and a close well below Thursday's. Support 28,700 and 28,500; resistance 29,000 and 29,562, Thursday's settle (Nasdaq-100 December futures)
• Dow Jones: Dow futures were flat (-0.09%) as Chevron's earnings beat, higher oil and buying in healthcare offset Amazon and Nvidia. The Dow is the most likely of the four to finish near unchanged.
• Russell 2000: Russell 2000 futures were down 0.6%, less than the large caps, helped by a slightly lower 10-year yield (about 4.94%). Small caps rarely escape a broad risk-off day, so we lean lower.

Stocks to watch

• RIVN · Rivian Automotive

  +6% to +9% pre-market

  ▲Up 3%

  Catalyst: Q3 revenue beat; raised full-year delivery outlook

  Rivian raised its full-year delivery outlook on demand for its R2 SUV and beat third-quarter revenue estimates, a company-specific catalyst that does not depend on AI spending. Volatile stocks with a guidance raise often extend their gains after the open.

  Risk: A Nasdaq-led sell-off could drag high-beta names lower and fade the gap.

  From $12.09 at 9:30 AM:high +1.49% at 10:07 AMclose +0.04%Not yet

• REGN · Regeneron Pharmaceuticals

  +7% pre-market

  ▲Up 2%

  Catalyst: Q3 revenue and adjusted profit beat

  Regeneron beat third-quarter revenue and adjusted-profit estimates, and healthcare is drawing money as investors sell AI-linked tech. A beat-driven gap in a large-cap biotech is likely to hold better than tech on a risk-off day.

  Risk: Part of a 7% opening gap is often given back in the first hour.

  From $869.43 at 9:30 AM:high +7.58% at 9:41 AMclose +5.62%✓ Reached 2%

• XOM · Exxon Mobil

  +1.8% pre-market

  ▲Up 1.5%

  Catalyst: Q3 earnings beat; oil up on Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks

  Exxon beat third-quarter estimates helped by wider refining margins, and WTI crude rose 1.85% to $103.89 after Iran said two tankers were hit and stopped in the Strait of Hormuz. Energy is the clearest beneficiary of today's rotation out of tech.

  Risk: A calmer weekend outlook on Iran could pull oil and energy shares back.

  From $187.08 at 9:30 AM:high +0.76% at 9:59 AMclose −1.12%Not yet

• GILD · Gilead Sciences

  +4% pre-market

  ▲Up 1.5%

  Catalyst: Raised full-year product sales guidance

  Gilead raised its full-year product sales guidance, and large-cap healthcare is a favored hiding place while AI-linked tech sells off. A guidance raise usually supports follow-through after the open.

  Risk: If the broad market slides more than 2%, even defensive names may trade lower.

  From $170.00 at 9:30 AM:high +3.32% at 9:36 AMclose +1.33%✓ Reached 1.5%

• AMZN · Amazon

  -7% pre-market

  ▼Down 2%

  Catalyst: Q3 miss; 12-month free cash outflow of about $42 billion

  Amazon's third-quarter results missed estimates, e-commerce growth was the slowest in three years, and free cash flow over 12 months was an outflow of about $42.4 billion while it kept a $220 billion capex plan. We expect selling to extend below the open before buyers step in.

  Risk: Megacaps that gap down 7% sometimes find buyers right at the open, limiting further downside.

  From $232.53 at 9:30 AM:low −1.36% at 9:30 AMclose +2.96%Not yet

What is moving the market

• bearishAmazon and Intel results hit tech. Amazon fell about 7% before the bell after a third-quarter miss and a 12-month free cash outflow of about $42 billion; Intel fell about 25% on a fourth-quarter outlook hurt by weak PC demand.
• bearishAI sell-off spreads to chips. Nvidia (-2.8%), Arm (-9.7%) and Micron (-5.6%) fell before the open, after Alphabet's 12.6% drop on Thursday, its worst day in more than 20 years. South Korea's Kospi fell 3.5% and ASML about 4.5%.
• bearishOil up on Strait of Hormuz attacks. WTI crude rose 1.85% to $103.89 and Brent traded between $112 and $117 after Iran said two tankers were hit and stopped in the Strait of Hormuz, a day after another tanker was struck.
• bullishEnergy and healthcare beats cushion the Dow. Exxon (+1.8%) and Chevron (+1.7%) beat estimates, Regeneron rose 7% and Gilead 4% before the bell, keeping Dow futures flat (-0.09%) while Nasdaq-100 futures fell 2.6%.
• mixedSticky inflation, slightly lower yields. Thursday's September PCE report showed core inflation at 3.1% from a year earlier (prior 3.0%); the third-quarter employment cost index rose 0.8%, as expected. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 4.94%.
• bearishCrypto hack hits bitcoin. Bitcoin fell 3.7% to about $77,200 after a Binance hack estimated at $6.3 billion; Coinbase, Robinhood, Circle and Strategy were each down more than 6% before the bell.

Before the bell

S&P 500 futures

7,669.50-1.09%

Nasdaq-100 futures

28,793.75-2.60%

Dow futures

52,463-0.09%

Russell 2000 futures

2,850.30-0.59%

VIX

18.63+8.31%

10-year Treasury yield

4.94%-5 bp

WTI crude oil

$103.89+1.85%

Gold

$3,954.90-1.90%

Bitcoin

$77,198-3.73%

As of 8:27 AM ET.

Today’s calendar

1. Pre-marketEarnings before the open — Exxon Mobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Colgate-Palmolive, Regeneron, General Dynamics, LyondellBasell, Dominion Energy, Cboe
2. 8:30 AMEmployment cost index (Q3) — +0.8%, as forecast; prior +0.9%
3. 9:30 AMFed's Barkin speaks — Interview on Sirius XM
4. 9:45 AMChicago PMI (October) — Forecasts 54.6 to 56; prior 58.8
5. 12:00 PMFed's Daly speaks — San Francisco Fed president
6. 12:30 PMFed's Musalem speaks — St. Louis Fed president
7. 4:00 PMClose: last trading day of October — Month-end rebalancing; the weekend comes before Tuesday's Nov. 3 midterm elections

Stocks slide after the open as Intel's 29% plunge sinks chips; S&P 500 down 1.4%, Nasdaq down 2.4%

Stocks opened lower on Friday, Oct. 30, and the 10 AM call confirms the 9 AM one: we estimate a 30% chance the S&P 500 closes above Thursday's 7,720.39. Near 10 AM it was down 1.4% at 7,614 and the Nasdaq 2.4%, as Intel's 29% plunge sank chip stocks and Amazon fell about 3%. Fed speakers follow at noon.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $758.09 (SPY) at 10:22 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: The S&P 500 was down 1.4% near 10 AM, below its 7,631 open, as a drop of about 4% in tech outweighed gains in energy and health care. Days that open down more than 1% and keep slipping after the open rarely recover to the prior close. Support 7,600 and 7,550; resistance 7,637, the morning high, and 7,720, Thursday's close (S&P 500 index)
• Nasdaq-100: The Nasdaq-100 was down about 2.7% as Intel's warning hit chips: Arm, Qualcomm and AMD fell about 9% each and Nvidia 3%. Amazon cut its loss from more than 5% to about 3%, but a full recovery today is unlikely. Support 28,500 and 28,200; resistance 29,000 and 29,403, Thursday's close (Nasdaq-100 index)
• Dow Jones: The Dow opened near flat but slipped to about -0.6% (52,039) as its tech members fell. Gains in energy and health care limit the damage, so the Dow has the best chance of the four to finish near unchanged. Support 51,900 and 51,500; resistance 52,343, Thursday's close, and 52,384, the open (Dow Jones index)
• Russell 2000: The Russell 2000 was down 1.0% at 2,831 at 9:58 AM, near its session low, even with the 10-year yield down 5 bp to 4.93%. Small caps rarely hold up on a broad risk-off day, so we lean toward a lower close. Support 2,820 and 2,800; resistance 2,843, the morning high, and 2,859, Thursday's close (Russell 2000 index)

Stocks to watch

• XOM · Exxon Mobil

  +2.6% after the open, near the session high

  ▲Up 1%

  Catalyst: Q3 beat and dividend raise; oil up 2.3% on Iran tensions

  Exxon beat third-quarter estimates on stronger refining margins and raised its quarterly dividend to $1.07, and WTI crude rose 2.3% to about $104 as the U.S. weighs military options against Iran. Energy (sector ETF +1.9%) is the clearest winner of the rotation out of tech.

  Risk: A calmer weekend outlook on Iran or a broader sell-off could pull oil and energy shares back.

  From $187.96 at 10:22 AM:high +0.01% at 10:22 AMclose −1.58%Not yet

• LLY · Eli Lilly

  +4.1% after the open, at a record high

  ▲Up 1%

  Catalyst: 2026 sales forecast raised to $91–92 billion; money rotating into health care

  Lilly raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $91–92 billion after third-quarter revenue rose 39% to $24.4 billion on obesity drugs, and health care is drawing money leaving tech. Its morning high of $1,449.68 is within reach.

  Risk: A stock up 4% at a record can see profit-taking if the broad market slides further.

  From $1428.04 at 10:22 AM:high +0.51% at 10:58 AMclose +0.51%Not yet

• REGN · Regeneron Pharmaceuticals

  +12% after the open, near a two-year high

  ▲Up 1.5%

  Catalyst: Q3 revenue up 36% to $5.12 billion on Dupixent

  Regeneron beat third-quarter estimates as revenue rose 36.3% to $5.12 billion and adjusted EPS reached $20.07, helped by Dupixent and EYLEA HD, and its volume passed a full day's average early in the session. Strong demand on a weak market day often carries a beat to new highs.

  Risk: The stock swung between $839 and $935 early, and a 12% gap can give back part of its gain.

  From $913.38 at 10:22 AM:high +0.94% at 10:24 AMclose +0.54%Not yet

• RIVN · Rivian Automotive

  +5.2% after the open, about $12.04

  ▲Up 2.5%

  Catalyst: Q3 beat, raised 2026 delivery outlook, Jefferies upgrade to Buy

  Rivian's third-quarter revenue rose 38% to $2.16 billion, above the roughly $2.0 billion expected, it raised its 2026 delivery outlook to 67,000–70,000 vehicles, and Jefferies upgraded it to Buy with a $17 target. Heavy early volume shows steady buying that does not depend on AI spending.

  Risk: Rivian is a high-beta stock, and a deeper Nasdaq sell-off could pull it back toward Thursday's $11.45 close.

  From $12.11 at 10:22 AM:high +0.54% at 10:47 AMclose −0.08%Not yet

What is moving the market

• bearishIntel's warning routs chip stocks. Intel fell about 29%, on course for its worst day ever, after guiding fourth-quarter revenue to $15–16 billion against a $17.07 billion estimate. Arm, Qualcomm and AMD each fell about 9%, Broadcom 4.6% and Nvidia 3%.
• bearishAmazon's cash burn feeds AI-spending worries. Amazon opened 4.6% lower at $232.53 after a record 12-month free cash outflow of more than $42 billion on about $77 billion of third-quarter capital spending, then cut its loss to about 3%. The tech sector ETF fell about 4%.
• bullishMoney rotates into health care and energy. Regeneron rose 12% and Eli Lilly 4.1% to a record, while Exxon gained 2.6% and the energy sector ETF 1.9%. These gains held the Dow to a loss of about 0.6% while the Nasdaq fell 2.4%.
• bearishOil climbs on Iran tensions. WTI crude rose 2.3% to $104.35 and Brent 2.4% to $113.44 after tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and reports that the U.S. is weighing military options against Iran.
• mixedChicago PMI in line, yields lower. The Chicago PMI eased to 55.3 in October from 58.8, within the 54.6–56 forecast range and still above 50. The 10-year Treasury yield fell about 5 bp to 4.93% as money moved into bonds.
• bearishBinance hack weighs on crypto stocks. Bitcoin was down 2.6% at about $78,000 after a Binance hack estimated at $6.3 billion, and Strategy fell about 9%.

The first 30 minutes

S&P 500

7,613.88-1.38% (-0.2% since open)

Nasdaq Composite

25,549.62-2.42% (-0.2% since the open)

Dow Jones

52,039-0.58% (-0.7% since the open)

Russell 2000

2,830.99-0.99% (-0.3% since open)

S&P 500 since the open

High 7,637.48; 7,614 near 10 AMSold from the first minutes

VIX

19.34+12.4%

10-year Treasury yield

4.93%-5 bp

Leading sectors

Energy, health careEnergy ETF +1.9%; REGN +12%

Lagging sector

TechnologyTech ETF about -4%; Intel -29%

As of About 10:00 AM ET.

Still to come today

1. 12:00 PMFed's Daly speaks — San Francisco Fed president
2. 12:30 PMFed's Musalem speaks — St. Louis Fed president
3. 4:00 PMClose: last trading day of October — Month-end rebalancing; a weekend of Iran risk comes before Tuesday's Nov. 3 midterm elections

1. Stock market today: Nasdaq futures dive, S&P 500 futures fall as Amazon, Intel earnings rattle investors — Yahoo Finance
2. US Stock Futures Fall As AMZN, INTC Earnings Trigger Tech Sell-Off: NVDA, RDDT, RIVN, SFM In Focus — Yahoo Finance
3. Futures Slide As AI Reckoning Claims Amazon, Intel; Oil Jumps On Hormuz Tanker Hits — ZeroHedge
4. United States Stock Market Index — Trading Economics
5. Stock Market Today: Nasdaq, S&P 500 Futures Fall After Amazon, Intel Earnings — CoinCentral
6. Nasdaq tumbles at open as Amazon, Intel add to AI spending woes — Reuters (Investing.com)
7. Nasdaq slides over 2% at the open as tech earnings deepen AI spending concerns — Investing.com
8. Intel warning sparks chip rout as PC weakness clouds turnaround — Reuters (Investing.com)
9. United States Chicago PMI — Trading Economics
10. S&P 500 (^GSPC) — Yahoo Finance
11. Russell 2000 (^RUT) — Yahoo Finance
12. Amazon.com (AMZN) — Yahoo Finance
13. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) — Yahoo Finance
14. Eli Lilly (LLY) — Yahoo Finance
15. Rivian Automotive (RIVN) — Yahoo Finance
16. Exxon Mobil (XOM) — Yahoo Finance

• Every trading day at 9:00 AM ET, before the 9:30 AM open, we read index futures, overnight markets, economic data, earnings and the news, and publish the chance that the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Dow and Russell 2000 close higher, the expected move to the day’s high and low, and stocks with a catalyst that day.
• At 10:00 AM ET a second call follows, from the same research plus how the first 30 minutes traded — to see how much a forecast improves once the market is open.
• Each call is measured from the moment it could be acted on: the 9 AM call from the 9:30 AM open, the 10 AM call from the minute it went public. “To the high” is the rise from that price to the session’s highest price; “to the close”, to the closing price.
• A call is “up” at 55% or more and “down” at 45% or less; in between it is not scored. Direction is right when the S&P 500 ETF’s close beats (or trails) the previous close. A stock reaches its target when its move from the measuring point to the high — to the low for a “down” call — is at least the target.
• Prices are regular-session prices of the index ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM) and the stocks. Results are live while the market trades and final after the close; every past day stays online with its results.