Stock Market Prediction for Thursday, October 29, 2026

Stocks set to open lower as Alphabet's 11% slide hits tech; strong GDP and drugmaker beats cushion

Stocks are set to open lower on Thursday, October 29, 2026, led by tech: Alphabet is down about 11% before the bell after missing estimates. We estimate a 43% chance the S&P 500 closes above Wednesday's close. Third-quarter GDP beat at 3.4%, but September PCE inflation rose to 3.6%; Amazon reports after the close.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $768.79 (SPY) at 9:30 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: Alphabet's roughly 11% pre-market drop is the main drag on the index. Gains in Microsoft, Eli Lilly and Merck and a Dow near flat point to firmer breadth beneath the surface, but the gap is hard to close with the 10-year yield near 5%. Pre-market near 7,727; support 7,700, then 7,650; resistance at Wednesday's close near 7,744 (S&P 500 index)
• Nasdaq-100: Nasdaq-100 indications are down about 0.9% (as much as 1.1% earlier) with Alphabet off 11% and Amazon and Intel lower ahead of their results after the close. Microsoft's 1.3% gain only partly offsets the drag.
• Dow Jones: The Dow is near flat before the open: gains in Microsoft and Merck offset Caterpillar's drop of more than 10% on a moderate fourth-quarter sales outlook.
• Russell 2000: Small caps carry no Alphabet exposure and get help from 3.4% GDP growth, low jobless claims and oil down 2%. A 10-year yield near 5% after a Fed hold with two dissents for a hike limits the upside.

Stocks to watch

• LLY · Eli Lilly

  +4.7% pre-market

  ▲Up 1.5%

  Catalyst: Q3 revenue up 39% to $24.4 billion; 2026 revenue outlook raised to $91–92 billion

  Lilly lifted its 2026 revenue forecast to $91–92 billion from $85–87 billion after third-quarter sales of $24.4 billion, led by Mounjaro and Zepbound. A beat-and-raise of this size in a market leader tends to draw buyers through the session, and drugmakers offer shelter while big tech sells off.

  Risk: The adjusted 2026 EPS outlook was trimmed to $35.00–36.00 from $35.50–36.50, which could cap the gain after a 4.7% gap.

  From $1338.51 at 9:30 AM:high +5.22% at 9:39 AMclose +1.85%✓ Reached 1.5%

• MRK · Merck

  +2.4% pre-market

  ▲Up 1%

  Catalyst: Third-quarter results; full-year guidance raised

  Merck is higher before the bell after lifting its full-year outlook, joining Lilly as one of the clearest earnings winners this morning. Defensive health care tends to hold up on days when mega-cap tech is under pressure.

  Risk: Gains in large drugmakers after a modest guidance raise often fade by the afternoon.

  From $144.62 at 9:30 AM:high +3.21% at 9:55 AMclose +1.78%✓ Reached 1%

• MSFT · Microsoft

  +1.3% pre-market

  ▲Up 1%

  Catalyst: Quarterly results with solid cloud (Azure) sales

  Microsoft is up after its cloud sales held up, setting it apart from Alphabet, whose miss is weighing on AI-spending names. Money rotating within mega-cap tech is likely to favor the company that showed cloud growth.

  Risk: Doubts about the payoff from heavy AI spending could pull Microsoft down with the rest of big tech.

  From $540.21 at 9:30 AM:high +0.14% at 9:30 AMclose −3.14%Not yet

• GOOGL · Alphabet

  -11% pre-market

  ▼Down 1.5%

  Catalyst: Third-quarter revenue and earnings missed estimates

  Alphabet missed on both revenue and earnings, with weaker sales across most core businesses, reviving doubts about the payoff from AI spending. Mega-cap gaps on a clean miss often extend below the open before buyers return.

  Risk: An 11% gap can draw dip buyers quickly and turn the open into the day's low.

  From $286.77 at 9:30 AM:low −2.24% at 9:38 AMclose +0.46%✓ Reached 1.5%

What is moving the market

• bearishAlphabet's miss hits big tech. Alphabet is down about 11% before the bell after third-quarter revenue and earnings missed estimates. Nasdaq-100 indications were down as much as 1.1% and are near -0.9%.
• mixedGrowth beats, claims stay low. Third-quarter GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized pace, above the 3.2% expected and the second quarter's 2.2%. Initial jobless claims fell to 194,000 against 199,000 expected.
• bearishInflation still above 3%. September PCE prices rose 3.6% from a year earlier (3.4% in August) and core PCE 3.1% (3.0%); core rose 0.3% on the month, as expected. The 10-year Treasury yield is near 5.01%.
• bearishFed holds, two dissent for a hike. The Fed left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, October 28; two policymakers dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, while Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation expectations remain well anchored.
• bullishDrugmakers beat, Europe rallies. Eli Lilly (+4.7%) and Merck (+2.4%) raised guidance. Germany's DAX is up 1.3% and France's CAC 40 1.2%, Japan's Nikkei rose 1.3%, and WTI crude is down 2% near $100.70.

Before the bell

S&P 500 (pre-market indication)

7,727-0.22%

Nasdaq-100 (pre-market indication)

29,534-0.94%

Dow (pre-market indication)

52,426-0.09%

10-year Treasury yield

5.01%-0.01 pt

WTI crude oil

$100.71-2.01%

Gold

$4,026-1.02%

US dollar index

102.28+0.08%

Bitcoin

$80,002-1.57%

As of 9:15 AM ET.

Today’s calendar

1. 8:30 AMQ3 GDP (advance estimate) — Actual 3.4% annualized; forecast 3.2%; Q2 2.2%
2. 8:30 AMPCE prices (September) — Headline 3.6% y/y (August 3.4%); core 3.1% y/y (3.0%); core +0.3% m/m, as expected
3. 8:30 AMInitial jobless claims (week to Oct 24) — Actual 194,000; forecast 199,000; prior 195,000
4. 9:30 AMUS stock market opens — Regular session until 4:00 PM ET
5. 10:30 AMEIA natural gas storage (weekly) — Weekly change in US natural gas inventories
6. 1:00 PM7-year Treasury note auction — Demand in focus with the 10-year yield near 5%
7. 4:00 PMAmazon and Intel earnings — Both report after the close; Amazon -2.2% and Intel -3.5% pre-market

Stocks open lower as Alphabet heads for its worst day on record; health care and small caps rise

Stocks opened lower on Thursday, October 29, 2026; at 10:13 AM ET the S&P 500 was down 0.48% near 7,707. We now estimate a 32% chance it closes above Wednesday's close, confirming the 9 AM lean lower (43%). Alphabet is down 12% on its miss, while health care and small caps rise. Amazon reports after the close.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $769.41 (SPY) at 10:20 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: The S&P 500 is down 0.48%, slightly above its 7,700 open, with Alphabet's 12% drop the main drag. Health care's 2.4% gain and a higher Russell 2000 show the selling is narrow, but a close above 7,744 would need a recovery in big tech. Near 7,707 at 10:13 AM; support at the morning low of 7,696, then 7,650; resistance at the early high of 7,724, then Wednesday's close of 7,744 (S&P 500 index)
• Nasdaq-100: QQQ is down 1.54% at $714.40 at 10:14 AM, below its $716.57 open, as Alphabet falls 12%, ServiceNow about 24% and chip stocks more than 2%. Amazon and Intel report after the close, which is likely to keep buyers cautious.
• Dow Jones: DIA is down 0.48% at $522.17 at 10:14 AM. Caterpillar's drop of about 8% on a moderate fourth-quarter sales outlook weighs on the price-weighted Dow, while Merck's 4.8% gain is the biggest offset.
• Russell 2000: The Russell 2000 is up 0.93% and IWM 0.87% at $283.75, above its $282.41 open, as money rotates away from mega-cap tech. Small caps have no Alphabet exposure and gain from the 10-year yield easing below 5%.

Stocks to watch

• LLY · Eli Lilly

  +8.3% at 10:14 AM ($1,394.64), +4.6% since the open

  ▲Up 1.2%

  Catalyst: Q3 revenue up 39% to $24.4 billion; 2026 revenue forecast raised to $91–92 billion

  Lilly has climbed steadily since its $1,332.73 open and set a high of $1,408.38, about 1% above its 10:14 AM price. With health care the strongest group this morning (XLV +2.35%), we estimate the stock tops its morning high.

  Risk: After an 8% gain, profit-taking could set in, especially with 2026 EPS guidance trimmed to $35–36.

  From $1383.00 at 10:20 AM:high +0.28% at 10:23 AMclose −1.43%Not yet

• MRK · Merck

  +4.8% at 10:14 AM ($147.73), +2.1% since the open

  ▲Up 1%

  Catalyst: Third-quarter results; full-year guidance raised

  Merck is 2.1% above its $144.62 open and touched $149.24, 1% above its 10:14 AM price. Defensive drugmakers are drawing money that is leaving big tech today.

  Risk: Gains in large drugmakers after a modest guidance raise often fade by the afternoon.

  From $146.97 at 10:20 AM:high +1.15% at 10:44 AMclose +0.16%✓ Reached 1%

• KLAC · KLA Corp.

  +6.9% at 10:14 AM ($169.77), +4.8% since the open

  ▲Up 1.5%

  Catalyst: Quarterly profit above expectations

  KLA is near its $170.85 high while the semiconductor ETF is down more than 2%. Strength against a falling group after an earnings beat often carries into the afternoon.

  Risk: A deeper chip-stock sell-off ahead of Intel's results after the close could pull it back.

  From $170.69 at 10:20 AM:high +0.36% at 10:34 AMclose −0.40%Not yet

• EBAY · eBay

  +3.6% at 10:14 AM ($122.30)

  ▲Up 1.2%

  Catalyst: Third-quarter profit above expectations

  eBay is trading near its $123.38 high after a profit beat and has no exposure to the AI-spending worries hitting big tech. We estimate a push about 1% above its 10:14 AM price.

  Risk: The stock opened at $121.96 and has gained little since, so the gap could stall.

  From $122.78 at 10:20 AM:high +1.39% at 11:31 AMclose +0.14%✓ Reached 1.2%

What is moving the market

• bearishAlphabet heads for its worst day. Alphabet is down 12.4% at $284.61 (low $280.36) after third-quarter revenue and earnings missed estimates and free cash flow was negative $9.07 billion. It kept its full-year capital spending plan at $195–205 billion.
• bearishSoftware and chip stocks sold. ServiceNow is down about 24% and Fortinet about 21% after their results, the semiconductor ETF is down more than 2% and Marvell about 12% on reported talks to buy Lumentum. The technology fund XLK is down 1.22%.
• bullishDrugmakers lead the gains. Eli Lilly is up 8.3% after raising its 2026 revenue forecast to $91–92 billion and Merck 4.8% after lifting guidance. The health care fund XLV is up 2.35%, far ahead of the S&P 500.
• bullishSmall caps rise as yields ease. The Russell 2000 is up 0.93% while the Nasdaq falls about 1.5%. The 10-year Treasury yield is about 4.98%, from 5.05% late Wednesday, after 3.4% GDP growth and in-line September PCE inflation of 3.6%.
• bearishCaterpillar drags the Dow. Caterpillar is down about 8.4% near $653 after guiding to moderate fourth-quarter sales growth, a heavy weight on the price-weighted Dow, which is down about 0.4%.
• bearishRate-hike bets, Amazon ahead. The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4% on Wednesday with two dissents for a hike, and traders widely expect a hike in December. Amazon (-3.7%) and Intel (-3.8%) report after the close.

The first 30 minutes

S&P 500

7,706.84-0.48% (+0.09% since the open)

S&P 500 opening range

7,695.75–7,724.020.37% wide

Nasdaq Composite

26,154.49-1.49%

Dow Jones Industrial Average

52,284.18-0.36%

Russell 2000

2,856.88+0.93%

VIX

17.15+0.24

10-year Treasury yield

4.98%-0.07 pt

Leading sector: health care (XLV)

$183.95+2.35%

Lagging sector: communication services (XLC)

$101.23-1.85%

As of 10:07–10:14 AM ET.

Still to come today

1. 10:30 AMEIA natural gas storage (week to Oct 23) — Weekly change in US natural gas inventories
2. 11:30 AM4-week and 8-week Treasury bill auctions — Short-term funding demand with the Fed on hold at 3.75%–4%
3. 12:00 PMFreddie Mac mortgage rates (weekly) — 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgage rates
4. 1:00 PM7-year Treasury note auction — Demand in focus with the 10-year yield just below 5%
5. 4:00 PMMarket close; Amazon and Intel earnings — Both report after the close; Amazon about -3.7% and Intel about -3.8% so far today

1. United States Stock Market Index — Trading Economics
2. United States Economic Calendar — Trading Economics
3. United States GDP Growth Rate — Trading Economics
4. United States 10-Year Bond Yield — Trading Economics
5. Commodities — Trading Economics
6. Stock Market Indexes — Trading Economics
7. US Dollar Index — Trading Economics
8. Crypto — Trading Economics
9. Lilly reports third-quarter 2026 financial results — Eli Lilly and Company (SEC filing)
10. Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq fall as Alphabet stock sell-off drags on tech, AI jitters return — Yahoo Finance
11. A potentially historic drop for Alphabet's stock drags the US market lower — Associated Press (The Durango Herald)
12. Nasdaq falls 1.83% as Alphabet sell-off revives fears over AI spending costs — Invezz
13. S&P 500 (^GSPC) — Yahoo Finance
14. Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — Yahoo Finance
15. Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) — Yahoo Finance
16. iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) — Yahoo Finance
17. Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) — Yahoo Finance

• Every trading day at 9:00 AM ET, before the 9:30 AM open, we read index futures, overnight markets, economic data, earnings and the news, and publish the chance that the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Dow and Russell 2000 close higher, the expected move to the day’s high and low, and stocks with a catalyst that day.
• At 10:00 AM ET a second call follows, from the same research plus how the first 30 minutes traded — to see how much a forecast improves once the market is open.
• Each call is measured from the moment it could be acted on: the 9 AM call from the 9:30 AM open, the 10 AM call from the minute it went public. “To the high” is the rise from that price to the session’s highest price; “to the close”, to the closing price.
• A call is “up” at 55% or more and “down” at 45% or less; in between it is not scored. Direction is right when the S&P 500 ETF’s close beats (or trails) the previous close. A stock reaches its target when its move from the measuring point to the high — to the low for a “down” call — is at least the target.
• Prices are regular-session prices of the index ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM) and the stocks. Results are live while the market trades and final after the close; every past day stays online with its results.