Stock Market Prediction for Wednesday, October 28, 2026

Stocks set to open slightly higher as Wall Street awaits the Fed at 2 PM and Microsoft, Alphabet results

Stocks are set to open slightly higher Wednesday: S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% and Nasdaq-100 futures 0.3%, helped by an AI-chip rally in Asia. We estimate a 55% chance the S&P 500 closes above Tuesday's 7,722.60. The Fed decision at 2 PM ET is the key event; oil above $100 is the main risk.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $771.43 (SPY) at 9:30 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: Futures point to a 0.2% higher open after Tuesday's 0.6% gain to 7,722.60. A Fed hold is expected at 2 PM; a firm signal of a December hike, already priced at 70–80%, is the main downside risk. Support 7,663 and 7,624 (Oct 22 and Oct 23 closes); resistance 7,800 (S&P 500 index)
• Nasdaq-100: Nasdaq-100 futures lead, up 0.34%, as SK Hynix results lifted AI-chip stocks in Asia and Alphabet rose on a report that OpenAI plans to buy its TPUs. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close, which may cap gains late in the day.
• Dow Jones: Dow futures are nearly flat, up 0.06%, after the Dow added just 0.03% on Tuesday as Boeing fell 10.7%. Oil above $100 helps energy members but raises costs for industrial and consumer names.
• Russell 2000: Russell 2000 futures are up 0.13% after Tuesday's 1.16% jump. Small caps are the most exposed to a 10-year yield near 5% and to any hawkish signal from the Fed.

Stocks to watch

• GOOGL · Alphabet

  +1% or more pre-market

  ▲Up 1.3%

  Catalyst: Report that OpenAI plans to buy Google's TPU chips; Q3 results after the close

  A large outside buyer for Google's AI chips supports the cloud growth story into tonight's report, where analysts expect EPS of $3.00 on revenue of about $127.7 billion. Nasdaq-100 futures are leading the market higher.

  Risk: Traders may cut positions before the report, whose options-implied move was about 7%.

  From $323.84 at 9:30 AM:high +0.79% at 9:30 AMclose −0.11%Not yet

• AON · Aon

  +2.8% pre-market

  ▲Up 1.2%

  Catalyst: Third-quarter 2026 results beat expectations; organic revenue +6%

  Organic revenue grew 6%, with 7% in both Commercial Risk and Reinsurance, and the company says it enters the fourth quarter with significant momentum. A clean beat at a steady broker often keeps drawing buyers after the open.

  Risk: A defensive name may lag if money rotates into riskier tech stocks after the Fed.

  From $314.00 at 9:30 AM:high +0.59% at 10:33 AMclose +0.40%Not yet

• ENPH · Enphase Energy

  -20% pre-market (indicated $23.74 vs a $29.76 close)

  ▼Down 3%

  Catalyst: Third-quarter miss, weak guidance and an Oppenheimer downgrade to Perform

  A miss with weak guidance plus a downgrade that removed the price target usually brings more selling after the open, and a 20% gap leaves a wide intraday range.

  Risk: Short covering after a gap this large can lift the stock off its open quickly.

  From $23.89 at 9:30 AM:low −0.25% at 9:30 AMclose +4.33%Not yet

What is moving the market

• mixedFed decision at 2 PM. The Fed is expected to hold its range at 3.75%–4.00% after a September hike. Futures late last week priced only a 7–9% chance of a hike today but 70–80% for December 9, so Chair Kevin Warsh's tone is the swing factor.
• bearishOil back above $100. WTI crude rose 1.75% to $101.65 and Brent 1.57% to $111.13 on the US–Iran conflict, and food and household brands are warning of more price hikes as war costs bite.
• bullishAI-chip trade gets a lift. Asian stocks rallied as SK Hynix results boosted the AI trade, Alphabet rose more than 1% pre-market on the OpenAI TPU report, and Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.34% after the Nasdaq gained 1.18% on Tuesday.
• mixedBig Tech reports after the close. Microsoft (EPS estimate $4.72, revenue about $90.7 billion) and Alphabet (EPS estimate $3.00, revenue about $127.7 billion) report tonight, with options-implied moves of about 6% and 7%.
• bearish10-year yield near 5%. The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.99% before the open, up 0.8 basis point, after ending last week at 5.00%. High yields weigh on small caps and richly valued tech.
• bullishTwo-day rebound. The S&P 500 rose 0.60% to 7,722.60 on Tuesday and has recovered about 1.3% since Friday's 7,623.68 close, with the VIX down to about 17.3.

Before the bell

S&P 500 futures

7,774.25+0.21%

Nasdaq-100 futures

29,913.75+0.34%

Dow futures

52,611+0.06%

Russell 2000 futures

2,832.10+0.13%

VIX

17.31-1.20%

10-year Treasury yield

4.99%+0.8 bp

WTI crude oil

$101.65+1.75%

Gold

$4,067.35-0.18%

US dollar index

102.19+0.03%

As of 9:00–9:15 AM ET.

Today’s calendar

1. 9:30 AMUS stock market opens — Regular session 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM ET
2. 9:45 AMBank of Canada rate decision — Canadian stock futures were muted ahead of the decision
3. 10:30 AMEIA weekly crude oil inventories — US oil stockpiles, closely watched with WTI above $100
4. 2:00 PMFOMC rate decision — Expected hold at 3.75%–4.00%; no new economic projections at this meeting
5. 2:30 PMFed Chair Kevin Warsh press conference — Futures priced a 70–80% chance of a December 9 hike as of Oct 22–23
6. 4:00 PMEarnings after the close: Microsoft, Alphabet — Microsoft EPS est. $4.72, revenue about $90.7B; Alphabet EPS est. $3.00, revenue about $127.7B; also T-Mobile US, ServiceNow, O'Reilly Automotive

Stocks hold small gains as an early chip rally fades; Fed decision at 2 PM is the swing factor

Stocks are slightly higher after a chip-led open faded, and the 10 AM call confirms the 9 AM lean higher. We estimate a 56% chance (55% at 9 AM) the S&P 500 closes above Tuesday's 7,722.60; it was 7,734, up 0.15%, at 10:16 AM ET. The Fed decision at 2 PM ET is the key event.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $770.90 (SPY) at 10:19 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: The S&P 500 opened 0.23% higher at 7,740.71, dipped below Tuesday's close to 7,718.21 and was up 0.15% at 7,734 by 10:16 AM. A Fed hold is expected at 2 PM; a firm hint of a December hike is the main downside risk. Support 7,718 (morning low) and 7,677 (Oct 27 low); resistance 7,742 (opening high) and 7,800 (S&P 500 index)
• Nasdaq-100: The Nasdaq-100 opened 0.27% higher and touched 29,798.66 (+0.50%) but was flat at 29,652 by 10:12 AM, as memory-chip gains were offset by drops in Teradyne and Seagate. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close, which may keep buyers cautious.
• Dow Jones: The Dow opened slightly lower at 52,335 but climbed to 52,478 (+0.19%) by 10:12 AM, up 0.27% since the open and the steadiest of the major indexes. Oil above $100 supports its energy members.
• Russell 2000: The Russell 2000 was up 0.17% at 2,823.79 by 10:13 AM in a narrow 2,817–2,829 range after Tuesday's 1.16% jump. A 10-year yield at 5.0% and any hawkish Fed signal weigh most on small caps.

Stocks to watch

• MU · Micron Technology

  +4.8% (about $973.50) shortly after 10 AM; day's high $979.80

  ▲Up 1.5%

  Catalyst: SK Hynix's third-quarter profit beat lifts memory-chip stocks

  SK Hynix's US-listed shares jumped about 11% after its quarterly profit beat, and Micron, the main US memory maker, is among the most active stocks. Memory names are holding their gains even as the Nasdaq-100 slipped back to flat.

  Risk: Chip stocks faded from their opening highs and Teradyne fell 5% despite a beat, so profit-taking could spread to memory names.

  From $969.08 at 10:19 AM:high +0.34% at 10:30 AMclose +0.15%Not yet

• GOOGL · Alphabet

  +1.3% ($324.64) shortly after 10 AM

  ▲Up 1%

  Catalyst: Report that OpenAI plans to buy Google's TPU chips; Q3 results after the close

  A large outside buyer for Google's AI chips supports the cloud story into tonight's report, and the stock is holding its gain while the Nasdaq-100 is flat. Analysts expect EPS of $3.00 on revenue of about $127.7 billion.

  Risk: Traders may trim positions before the report, whose options-implied move is about 7%.

  From $324.40 at 10:19 AM:high +0.18% at 10:30 AMclose −0.28%Not yet

• AON · Aon

  +4.0% ($314.56) at 10:14 AM; day's high $315.25

  ▲Up 1%

  Catalyst: Third-quarter 2026 results beat; organic revenue +6%

  Organic revenue grew 6%, with 7% in both Commercial Risk and Reinsurance, and the stock trades near its high of the day, well above its $307.29 low. An insurance broker is little exposed to the oil and chip swings driving the market.

  Risk: After a 4% jump, a steady broker may stall below the day's high.

  From $313.59 at 10:19 AM:high +0.72% at 10:33 AMclose +0.53%Not yet

What is moving the market

• mixedChip rally fades after the open. The Nasdaq-100 opened 0.27% higher and touched 29,798.66 (+0.50%) but was flat at 29,652 by 10:12 AM. Micron rose 4.8% and SK Hynix's US shares 10.7% on SK Hynix's profit beat, while Teradyne fell 5.2% despite a beat as it guided gross margin down to 57.5%–58.5%.
• mixedFed decision at 2 PM. The Fed is expected to hold its range at 3.75%–4.00%. Futures priced a 70–80% chance of a December 9 hike as of Oct 22–23, so Chair Kevin Warsh's tone matters most. The Bank of Canada's rate stood at 2.50% after its 9:45 AM decision, up from 2.25% and in line with forecasts.
• bearishOil above $100 before inventories. WTI crude was up 1.84% at $101.74 and Brent up 1.68% at $111.25 shortly after 10 AM, with the weekly EIA stockpile report due at 10:30 AM (forecast +0.1 million barrels after a 3.06 million draw).
• bearish10-year yield at 5%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 2.1 basis points to 5.007% shortly after 10 AM, and the MBA 30-year mortgage rate was 7.37%. Yields this high weigh on small caps and richly valued tech.
• mixedEarnings beats rewarded selectively. Aon rose 4.0% after 6% organic revenue growth, but Boston Scientific fell 7.7% after adjusted EPS of $0.73 missed the $0.75 estimate with weak guidance, and Enphase fell 15.5% after a miss and an Oppenheimer downgrade.
• mixedBig Tech reports after the close. Microsoft (EPS estimate $4.72, revenue about $90.7 billion) and Alphabet (EPS estimate $3.00, revenue about $127.7 billion) report tonight, with options-implied moves of about 6% and 7%.

The first 30 minutes

S&P 500

7,734.26+0.15% (-0.08% since the open)

Nasdaq Composite

26,458.73-0.07% (-0.31% since the open)

Dow Jones

52,478.40+0.19% (+0.27% since the open)

Russell 2000

2,823.79+0.17% (+0.10% since the open)

S&P 500 range since the open

7,718.21–7,742.26Open 7,740.71 (+0.23%)

VIX

17.39-0.74%

10-year Treasury yield

5.01%+2.1 bp

Leading group

Memory chips (Micron, SK Hynix ADR)+4.8%, +10.7%

Lagging group

Med devices, chip testers (BSX, TER)-7.7%, -5.2%

As of 10:05–10:16 AM ET.

Still to come today

1. 10:30 AMEIA weekly crude oil inventories — Forecast +0.1 million barrels; prior -3.06 million; gasoline forecast -1.4 million
2. 2:00 PMFOMC rate decision — Expected hold at 3.75%–4.00%; no new economic projections at this meeting
3. 2:30 PMFed Chair Kevin Warsh press conference — Futures priced a 70–80% chance of a December 9 hike as of Oct 22–23
4. 4:00 PMEarnings after the close: Microsoft, Alphabet — Microsoft EPS est. $4.72, revenue about $90.7B; Alphabet EPS est. $3.00, revenue about $127.7B

1. Real-Time Stock Indices Futures — Investing.com
2. Stock Market News — Investing.com
3. Real Time Commodity Futures Prices — Investing.com
4. U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield — Investing.com
5. Meeting calendars and information — Federal Reserve
6. Stock market week ahead: October 26, 2026 — Regards of Wall Street
7. Market pulse: October 27, 2026 — Tapeboard
8. Aon third quarter 2026 results (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1) — Aon plc / SEC
9. Major World Market Indices — Investing.com
10. S&P 500 Historical Data — Investing.com
11. Nasdaq 100 — Investing.com
12. Dow Jones Industrial Average — Investing.com
13. Economic Calendar — Investing.com
14. Micron Technology stock — Investing.com
15. Teradyne stock — Investing.com
16. Boston Scientific stock — Investing.com
17. Aon stock — Investing.com

• Every trading day at 9:00 AM ET, before the 9:30 AM open, we read index futures, overnight markets, economic data, earnings and the news, and publish the chance that the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Dow and Russell 2000 close higher, the expected move to the day’s high and low, and stocks with a catalyst that day.
• At 10:00 AM ET a second call follows, from the same research plus how the first 30 minutes traded — to see how much a forecast improves once the market is open.
• Each call is measured from the moment it could be acted on: the 9 AM call from the 9:30 AM open, the 10 AM call from the minute it went public. “To the high” is the rise from that price to the session’s highest price; “to the close”, to the closing price.
• A call is “up” at 55% or more and “down” at 45% or less; in between it is not scored. Direction is right when the S&P 500 ETF’s close beats (or trails) the previous close. A stock reaches its target when its move from the measuring point to the high — to the low for a “down” call — is at least the target.
• Prices are regular-session prices of the index ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM) and the stocks. Results are live while the market trades and final after the close; every past day stays online with its results.