Stock Market Prediction for Friday, November 6, 2026

S&P 500 seen edging higher as chips rebound from a 4.4% rout; hot jobs data keeps a lid on futures

Stocks are set for a mixed open after Thursday's 4.4% S&P 500 plunge: Nasdaq-100 futures are up about 1.4% as chip stocks rebound, while Dow futures are down about 1%. We estimate a 55% chance the S&P 500 closes higher. A hot October jobs report (+165,000) lifted Fed hike odds; consumer sentiment is due at 10 AM.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $734.82 (SPY) at 9:30 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: Futures point to a flat to slightly higher open (about +0.1%) after a 4.36% drop that closed at the day's low. Rebounds after washout days lean positive, but the hot jobs report and a 4.87% 10-year yield likely cap the bounce. Support 7,350 (Thursday's low and close) and 7,300; resistance 7,515 (middle of Thursday's range) and 7,680 (Thursday's high), S&P 500 index
• Nasdaq-100: Nasdaq-100 futures are up about 1.4% after the index fell 6.4% Thursday, led by chipmakers bouncing 5-13% before the bell. A gap this size after a crash day can fade if yields keep rising, so the lean is up but not strong.
• Dow Jones: Dow futures are down about 1% (roughly 490 points) even as tech bounces, a split that points to money rotating into beaten-down chip stocks rather than a broad rebound. Closing above Thursday's 51,523 close would require recovering the whole gap.
• Russell 2000: Russell 2000 futures are up about 0.2%. A stronger economy helps smaller companies, but higher odds of a December rate hike (about 73% per CME FedWatch) weigh on them.

Stocks to watch

• ABNB · Airbnb

  +14% in extended trading

  ▲Up 2%

  Catalyst: Q3 beat and a Q4 revenue outlook above estimates

  Q3 EPS of $3.16 beat the $2.85 estimate and revenue rose 19% to $4.87 billion; Q4 revenue guidance of $3.22-3.28 billion tops the $3.16 billion estimate. Travel demand sits far from the AI and data center worries driving the market.

  Risk: After a 14% gap, early profit-taking could keep the stock below its opening price.

  From $191.65 at 9:30 AM:high +0.44% at 9:30 AMclose −0.63%Not yet

• SOXX · iShares Semiconductor ETF

  +5% pre-market (8:51 AM ET)

  ▲Up 2.5%

  Catalyst: Rebound after the chip index's worst day since March 2020

  The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 12% Thursday on data center policy fears; Lam Research, Marvell, SanDisk, Micron and AMD are up 8-13% before the bell, and several strategists call the drop an overreaction.

  Risk: New headlines on data center limits or rising yields could turn the bounce into a fade.

  From $139.36 at 9:30 AM:high +0.61% at 9:51 AMclose −2.17%Not yet

• MU · Micron Technology

  +8% pre-market (8:51 AM ET)

  ▲Up 3%

  Catalyst: Memory-chip rebound after a double-digit drop to a three-month low

  Memory and storage names fell the most Thursday, with Micron, SanDisk, Western Digital and Seagate all down by double digits. The deepest losers tend to bounce hardest when buyers return, and memory names are among the strongest chip gainers before the bell.

  Risk: Memory makers are the most exposed to any cut in data center spending, so the bounce may not hold if those fears return.

  From $708.25 at 9:30 AM:high +2.34% at 9:47 AMclose −1.78%Not yet

• VST · Vistra

  +5.7% pre-market

  ▲Up 2%

  Catalyst: Q3 results, a higher 2026 profit midpoint, first 2027 guidance and a new $1.5 billion buyback

  Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $2.38 billion rose more than 50% from a year earlier; Vistra narrowed 2026 EBITDA guidance to $7.1-7.5 billion with a higher midpoint, guided 2027 to $7.7-8.5 billion and added $1.5 billion in buybacks.

  Risk: As a power supplier to data centers it shares the policy fears that hit AI stocks Thursday, and Q3 revenue of $6.35 billion missed the $6.79 billion estimate.

  From $119.57 at 9:30 AM:high +5.03% at 12:28 PMclose +5.03%✓ Reached 2%

• AKAM · Akamai Technologies

  +5% pre-market

  ▲Up 1.5%

  Catalyst: Q3 EPS beat and a 17-22% revenue growth outlook for 2027

  Adjusted EPS of $1.77 beat the $1.67 estimate on revenue of $1.122 billion, up 6%. Management expects 17-22% revenue growth in 2027 and more than $7 billion in revenue in 2028.

  Risk: Fourth-quarter guidance came in below consensus because of cloud build-out delays, which could cap the gain.

  From $83.37 at 9:30 AM:high +2.49% at 11:31 AMclose +1.93%✓ Reached 1.5%

What is moving the market

• bullishChip stocks rebound. Nasdaq-100 futures were up about 1.4% at 8:31 AM ET as Lam Research (+13%), Marvell (+10%), SanDisk (+10.6%), Micron and AMD (about +8%) bounced after the PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 12% on Thursday.
• bearishData center policy fears after the midterms. Democrats won both chambers of Congress, and some newly elected governors pledged to pause data center construction; Goldman Sachs estimates about 45% of planned US data center capacity could face restrictions.
• bearishHot jobs report lifts rate-hike odds. October payrolls rose 165,000 vs about 65,000-70,000 expected, unemployment fell to 4.1% and hourly pay rose 0.4%. CME FedWatch showed about a 73% chance of a hike on December 9; the 10-year yield rose to about 4.87% and S&P 500 futures pared gains.
• mixedWashout selling and a VIX spike. Only about one in seven S&P 500 stocks rose Thursday and the VIX jumped about 70% to near 28, a move seen eight times since 1991 that was followed by an average S&P 500 gain of 3.0% a month later. But the index closed at its low of the day and the VIX is still about 26.6.
• bearishGlobal markets follow Wall Street lower. Japan's Nikkei and South Korea's Kospi fell about 6% and Taiwan's Taiex 4.5% on Friday; Europe's Stoxx 600 was down 1.1-1.7% in the morning.

Before the bell

S&P 500 futures

7,392.00+0.12%

Nasdaq-100 futures

27,113.75+1.35%

Dow futures

51,115-0.97%

Russell 2000 futures

2,741.60+0.23%

VIX

26.60-5.6%

10-year Treasury yield

4.87%+0.03 pt

WTI crude oil (Dec)

$90.60+0.1%

Gold

$4,056.90-1.4%

Bitcoin

$75,515-3.4%

As of About 9:00 AM ET.

Today’s calendar

1. 8:30 AMJobs report (October) — Actual +165,000 vs about 65,000 expected; September revised to +60,000; unemployment 4.1% (4.2% expected); hourly earnings +0.4% m/m (+0.3% expected)
2. Before 9:30 AMEarnings: Moderna, Humana, Vistra, Enbridge, Charter, Franklin Templeton — Humana raised its 2026 EPS outlook to at least $9.50; Vistra +5.7% and Charter -6.6% pre-market
3. 10:00 AMUniversity of Michigan consumer sentiment (November, preliminary) — Forecast 47.3; prior 48. Prior 1-year inflation expectation 4.7%, 5-10 year 3.5%
4. 4:00 PMMarket close, weekend ahead — Next Fed decision December 9; November jobs and October inflation data still to come

Chip rebound lifts the S&P 500 0.8% by 10 AM as the Dow erases most of a 486-point opening drop

Stocks are higher: near 10 AM ET the S&P 500 was up 0.8% at 7,411 and the Nasdaq 1.5% as chips rebounded; the Dow cut a 486-point opening loss to 0.2%. This confirms the 9 AM up lean: we see a 66% chance of a higher S&P 500 close. Yields lifted by hot jobs data are the main risk.

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $740.65 (SPY) at 10:20 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: The S&P 500 opened at 7,377.65, dipped to 7,369.55 and was up about 0.8% at 7,411 near 10 AM after touching about +1% shortly before. Gains through the first half hour favor a higher close, but a 4.4% drop the day before and a 4.88% 10-year yield leave room for a fade into the weekend. Support 7,370 (this morning's low) and 7,354 (Thursday's close); resistance 7,515 (middle of Thursday's range) and 7,680 (Thursday's high), S&P 500 index
• Nasdaq-100: The Nasdaq Composite opened up 1.23% and was up about 1.5% near 10 AM, with the Nasdaq-100 up about 1.7% as chipmakers rebounded from Thursday's 12% drop. A cushion that size makes a higher close likely unless the chip bounce fades.
• Dow Jones: The Dow opened down 486 points (0.94%) but was down only about 106 points (0.2%) near 10 AM. Money moving out of defensive stocks such as Walmart (-2.6%) weighs on the index, so a close above Thursday's 51,523 is close to a coin flip.
• Russell 2000: The Russell 2000 was up about 0.2% at 2,735.60 near 10 AM. Lower inflation expectations in the consumer survey help smaller companies, but a likely December rate hike after the strong jobs report weighs on them.

Stocks to watch

• NVDA · Nvidia

  +5.7% to about $192 in early trading, after a 9.3% drop Thursday

  ▲Up 2%

  Catalyst: Chip rebound, Bank of America's reiterated Buy ($350 target) and a report that TSMC is planning stacked DRAM at Nvidia's request

  Nvidia is leading the tech rebound after falling 9.3% on Thursday, and Bank of America reiterated its Buy rating with a $350 target, calling it best of breed. With the VIX near 24, its daily range leaves room for another 2% from the 10 AM price if the Nasdaq holds its gain.

  Risk: A new headline on data center limits, or yields rising on December hike bets, could stall the bounce.

  From $191.88 at 10:20 AM:high +0.20% at 10:21 AMclose −1.87%Not yet

• MU · Micron Technology

  +7% to +9% in early trading, after a 17% drop Thursday

  ▲Up 3%

  Catalyst: Memory-chip rebound after Thursday's 17% plunge

  Micron fell 17% Thursday, the steepest drop among large chip stocks, and is bouncing about 8% with SanDisk up about 11%. The deepest losers tend to rebound hardest when buyers return, and Micron's wide daily range makes a further 3% rise realistic.

  Risk: A report that TSMC may move into advanced memory adds a new competitive worry, and memory makers are the most exposed to any cut in data center spending.

  From $703.95 at 10:20 AM:high +0.33% at 10:21 AMclose −1.18%Not yet

• LRCX · Lam Research

  +9% to +10% in early trading

  ▲Up 2.5%

  Catalyst: New $25 billion buyback authorization plus the chip rebound

  Lam's board approved a $25 billion repurchase authorization and a $0.33 quarterly dividend, and chip-equipment peer Applied Materials is up more than 7%. The buyback adds steady demand for the shares on top of the sector rebound.

  Risk: After a 10% jump the stock may stall if the chip index loses momentum.

  From $202.41 at 10:20 AM:high +1.41% at 11:33 AMclose −0.20%Not yet

• SOXX · iShares Semiconductor ETF

  +4% to +5% after the open

  ▲Up 2%

  Catalyst: Rebound after the chip index's worst day since March 2020

  The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 12% Thursday and rose about 4% in the first half hour, with AMD, SanDisk, Lam Research, Micron and Applied Materials up 7% to 12%. Broad gains across the group favor further upside while the S&P 500 holds above its 7,377.65 open.

  Risk: New data center policy headlines or a 10-year yield above 4.9% could turn the bounce into a fade.

  From $137.04 at 10:20 AM:high +0.39% at 10:21 AMclose −0.51%Not yet

• ABNB · Airbnb

  About +9% to +10% after the open (+14% in extended trading)

  ▲Up 1.5%

  Catalyst: Q3 beat and a Q4 revenue outlook above estimates

  Q3 EPS of $3.16 beat the $2.85 estimate, revenue rose 19% to $4.87 billion and Q4 revenue guidance of $3.22-3.28 billion tops the $3.16 billion estimate. Travel demand sits far from the AI and data center worries, which makes it a candidate for money leaving defensive stocks.

  Risk: The stock already gave back part of its overnight gain before the open, and that fade could continue.

  From $186.70 at 10:20 AM:high +2.06% at 12:27 PMclose +2.01%✓ Reached 1.5%

What is moving the market

• bullishChip stocks lead a broad tech rebound. The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose about 4% in the first half hour after a 12% drop Thursday; AMD rose 8% to 11%, Nvidia about 6% to $192, SanDisk about 11%, Lam Research about 10% and Micron about 8%. TSMC's US shares jumped 7.7% on a report it is planning stacked DRAM at Nvidia's request.
• bullishBuyers step in after the open. The S&P 500 opened up 0.26% at 7,373 and climbed to about +0.8% (7,411) near 10 AM, while the Dow cut a 486-point opening loss to about 106 points. A rise through the first half hour slightly raises the odds of a higher close.
• bullishConsumer sentiment beats, inflation expectations ease. The University of Michigan's preliminary November index rose to 51.0 from 48.0, above forecasts of about 47-48. One-year inflation expectations fell to 4.3% from 4.7% and 5-10 year expectations to 3.4% from 3.5%.
• bearishHot jobs report keeps a December hike in play. October payrolls rose 165,000 vs about 65,000 expected and unemployment fell to 4.1%. CME FedWatch showed about a 73% chance of a hike on December 9 before the open, and the 10-year yield was about 4.88% near 10 AM.
• mixedRotation out of defensive stocks. Walmart fell 2.6% to $124.39 in morning trading with no company news, and Monster Beverage fell about 5%, as money moved from consumer staples into tech. That lifts the Nasdaq but holds back the Dow.
• mixedVolatility eases but stays high. The VIX fell about 14% to about 24 near 10 AM from about 28 on Thursday, when the S&P 500 closed at its low after a 4.4% drop. Japan's Nikkei and South Korea's Kospi fell about 6% overnight.

The first 30 minutes

S&P 500

7,411.40+0.78%; +0.46% since open

Nasdaq Composite

24,668.56+1.45%; +0.22% since open

Dow Jones

51,417.48-0.20%; +0.75% since open

Russell 2000

2,735.60+0.21%

S&P 500 first 30 minutes

Low 7,369.55, high near +1%Open 7,377.65

VIX

24.13-14.5%

10-year Treasury yield

4.88%+0.04 pt

Leading: semiconductors

PHLX chip index about +4%AMD +8-11%, Nvidia +5.7%

Lagging: consumer staples

Walmart $124.39-2.6%

As of About 10:00 AM ET.

Still to come today

1. 10:00 AMUniversity of Michigan consumer sentiment (November, preliminary) — Actual 51.0 vs about 47-48 expected; October 48.0. One-year inflation expectations 4.3% (4.7% prior), 5-10 year 3.4% (3.5% prior)
2. 4:00 PMMarket close, weekend ahead — Next Fed decision December 9; weekend headline risk on data center policy after the midterms

1. Stock market today: Nasdaq futures rebound after brutal sell-off, Dow and S&P 500 wobble as US adds 165K jobs — Yahoo Finance
2. Chip stocks slaughtered as Wall Street suffers worst post-midterm day since 1896 — Yahoo Finance
3. A blowout: US added 165,000 jobs in October, trouncing expectations — Yahoo Finance
4. Nasdaq plunges 5% on data center fears — Yahoo Finance
5. Asian markets fall after US AI rout — Yahoo Finance
6. S&P 500 (^GSPC) — Yahoo Finance
7. S&P 500 futures pare gains after October nonfarm payrolls data — Reuters via Investing.com
8. U.S. chip stocks rebound sharply after Thursday's brutal selloff — Investing.com
9. Why is Vistra stock surging today? — Investing.com
10. Humana raises full-year profit forecast on lower medical costs — Reuters via Investing.com
11. Why is Akamai Technologies stock rallying today? — Investing.com
12. Stock market news — Investing.com
13. Nasdaq opens higher as chips pare losses, rate-hike fears linger — Reuters via Investing.com
14. Nasdaq rebounds at the open after AI rout; yields rise on blockbuster jobs report — Investing.com
15. TSMC rises on report of potential push into advanced memory for Nvidia — Investing.com
16. Why is Walmart stock sliding today? — Investing.com
17. November US UMich prelim consumer sentiment 51.0 vs 48.0 expected — InvestingLive
18. Stock market today: Live updates — CNBC

• Every trading day at 9:00 AM ET, before the 9:30 AM open, we read index futures, overnight markets, economic data, earnings and the news, and publish the chance that the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Dow and Russell 2000 close higher, the expected move to the day’s high and low, and stocks with a catalyst that day.
• At 10:00 AM ET a second call follows, from the same research plus how the first 30 minutes traded — to see how much a forecast improves once the market is open.
• Each call is measured from the moment it could be acted on: the 9 AM call from the 9:30 AM open, the 10 AM call from the minute it went public. “To the high” is the rise from that price to the session’s highest price; “to the close”, to the closing price.
• A call is “up” at 55% or more and “down” at 45% or less; in between it is not scored. Direction is right when the S&P 500 ETF’s close beats (or trails) the previous close. A stock reaches its target when its move from the measuring point to the high — to the low for a “down” call — is at least the target.
• Prices are regular-session prices of the index ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM) and the stocks. Results are live while the market trades and final after the close; every past day stays online with its results.