Stock Market Prediction for Thursday, October 15, 2026

Hot PPI and a global chip rout weigh on Nasdaq futures; S&P 500 seen 38% likely to close higher

Index calls

Call: up when the chance of closing above the previous close is 55% or more, down at 45% or less, otherwise no call. “To the high” and “to the close” are counted from $766.25 (SPY) at 9:30 AM ET; “day” is the close against the previous close.

• S&P 500: Futures point to an open about 0.3% lower after Wednesday's 1.1% drop, the worst day since July. Gains in staples, health care and banks may cushion chip losses, but the hot PPI keeps pressure on valuations. Support 7,650 and 7,600; resistance 7,719 (Wednesday's close) and 7,805 (Tuesday's close), S&P 500 index
• Nasdaq-100: Nasdaq-100 futures are down about 1.1% as the chip sell-off spreads from Seoul and Tokyo and AI debt worries hit CoreWeave and Oracle. A gap this large with a clear catalyst is rarely fully recovered the same day. Resistance $729 (Wednesday's close); support $715 and $700, QQQ ETF
• Dow Jones: Dow futures are up about 0.3% as money rotates into defensive and value stocks; Walmart, a Dow member, is up about 2% on an upgrade. Nvidia and other chip-linked members are the main drag. Support 51,400 and 51,000; resistance 51,850 (Monday's close) and 52,000, Dow Jones index
• Russell 2000: Russell 2000 futures are slightly higher after Wednesday's 1.9% drop, helped by lower Treasury yields. Small caps stay sensitive to Fed rate-hike odds, which the hot PPI keeps elevated. Support 2,700; resistance 2,783 (Tuesday's close), Russell 2000 index

Stocks to watch

• WMT · Walmart

  +2.2% pre-market

  ▲Up 1.2%

  Catalyst: Deutsche Bank upgrade to Buy from Hold; price target raised to $136 from $113

  The upgrade arrives as investors rotate from technology into consumer staples after hot inflation data, which is likely to keep buyers active after the open.

  Risk: A gap-up open can fade if the broader market sells off and early buyers take profits.

  From $120.00 at 9:30 AM:high +1.15% at 9:36 AMclose −1.77%✗ Missed 1.2% (+1.15%)

• SCHW · Charles Schwab

  +0.9% pre-market

  ▲Up 1.5%

  Catalyst: Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.69 beat the $1.66 estimate; revenue of $7.17 billion

  An earnings beat on a day when financials are outperforming, and higher rates that support interest income, favor further gains after the open.

  Risk: Revenue was slightly below the $7.2 billion consensus, and the conference call could change the reaction.

  From $93.40 at 9:30 AM:high +1.75% at 12:48 PMclose +0.81%✓ Reached 1.5%

• USB · U.S. Bancorp

  +1.8% pre-market

  ▲Up 1.2%

  Catalyst: Q3 EPS of $1.34 beat the $1.32 estimate; revenue of $7.97 billion, up 8.6% from a year earlier

  An earnings beat plus a bid for financials (the XLF sector ETF is up about 0.8% pre-market) points to follow-through after the open.

  Risk: PNC fell about 3% after its own results, a reminder that bank stocks can reverse on fee and revenue details.

  From $56.14 at 9:30 AM:high +2.76% at 11:02 AMclose +2.23%✓ Reached 1.2%

• DELL · Dell Technologies

  -3.9% pre-market

  ▼Down 2.5%

  Catalyst: Barclays downgrade to Equal Weight on uncertainty over the timing of enterprise AI spending

  The downgrade adds to Wednesday's 11% drop as investors cut exposure to AI hardware, and selling is likely to continue after the open.

  Risk: After two heavy down days the stock could bounce sharply if the chip sell-off eases.

  From $471.21 at 9:30 AM:low −3.99% at 9:57 AMclose +0.46%✓ Reached 2.5%

• RKLB · Rocket Lab

  -9.7% pre-market

  ▼Down 3%

  Catalyst: Debut launch of the larger Neutron rocket delayed to next year

  A delay to the company's main growth program, on a risk-off day for high-valuation growth stocks, points to further selling after the open.

  Risk: Heavy pre-market losses can attract dip buyers and produce a rebound from the open.

  From $53.86 at 9:30 AM:low −7.74% at 9:55 AMclose +2.58%✓ Reached 3%

What is moving the market

• bearishProducer prices jump. September PPI rose 1.3% from August and 6.3% from a year earlier, versus forecasts of about 0.5% and 5.3%; core prices excluding food and energy rose 0.7%. It follows Wednesday's 3.7% CPI reading.
• bearishGlobal chip sell-off. South Korea's KOSPI fell 7.6% and Japan's Nikkei 4.9% overnight, with SK Hynix down 11% and Samsung down 9%. TSMC is about 2% lower pre-market despite a sixth straight record quarterly profit.
• bearishAI debt worries. CoreWeave is down about 7% pre-market after a 15% drop on Wednesday, with its bonds yielding about 15%. Oracle is down about 2% after falling almost 9%, and Micron, AMD and Nvidia are 2% to 4% lower.
• bearishFed rate-hike odds. Before the PPI, futures priced a 27% chance of a rate hike at the October 27-28 Fed meeting, up from 20% a week earlier, and 67% odds of a December hike, according to CME FedWatch data cited by Reuters.
• mixedRotation into defensives and banks. Dow futures are up 0.3% and Russell 2000 futures 0.2%. Pre-market, consumer staples (XLP) are up 1.3%, health care (XLV) 1.0% and financials (XLF) 0.8%, while technology (XLK) is down 1.6%.
• bullishLower Treasury yields. The 10-year yield is near 5.10%, down about 9 basis points, and the dollar index is about 0.3% lower, which gives stock valuations some support even after the hot PPI.

Before the bell

S&P 500 futures

7,744.75-0.33%

Nasdaq-100 futures

29,840.25-1.13%

Dow futures

52,011+0.30%

Russell 2000 futures

2,749.90+0.18%

VIX

17.62+4.4%

10-year Treasury yield

5.10%-9 bp

WTI crude (November)

$93.73-0.18%

Gold futures

$4,168.40+1.47%

US dollar index

102.2-0.3%

As of 8:40 AM ET.

Today’s calendar

1. 8:30 AMProducer price index (September) — Actual +1.3% month over month and 6.3% year over year, versus forecasts of about +0.5% and 5.3%; core excluding food and energy +0.7% and 5.0%.
2. 8:30 AMRetail sales (September) — Actual +0.8% month over month versus a +0.3% forecast.
3. 8:30 AMInitial jobless claims — Actual 199,000 versus 200,000 expected; prior 197,000.
4. 8:30 AMEmpire State manufacturing index (October) — Actual 25.5 versus about 10 expected; prior 7.6.
5. 8:30 AMPhiladelphia Fed manufacturing index (October) — Actual 20.9 versus 28.4 expected; prior 37.8.
6. 10:00 AMBusiness inventories (August) — Forecast +0.4%; prior +0.8%.
7. 10:30 AMEIA natural gas storage — Weekly change in US natural gas inventories; prior +85 billion cubic feet.
8. 11:30 AM4-week and 8-week Treasury bill auctions — Regular weekly sales of short-term Treasury bills.

1. Nasdaq futures fall 1% as AI rout deepens on debt concerns — Reuters
2. Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq futures slip as semiconductor sell-off continues — Yahoo Finance
3. Global chip sell-off deepens as South Korean market plunges — Yahoo Finance
4. How major US stock indexes fared Wednesday 10/14/2026 — Associated Press
5. Producer Price Index News Release — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
6. United States producer inflation jumps 6.3% in September vs. 5.3% expected — FXStreet
7. Morning Kickstart: Dollar retreats as yields fall, Nasdaq remains under pressure — investingLive
8. PPI, retail sales, jobless claims, and oil inventories among economic data due Thursday — Investing.com
9. Premarket Movers: AAPL Gains On China AI Approval Report — Why WMT, NFLX Stocks Are Also Rising — Yahoo Finance
10. Charles Schwab earnings beat by $0.03, revenue fell short of estimates — Investing.com
11. U.S. Bancorp's (NYSE:USB) Q3 2026 Earnings Results: Revenue In Line With Expectations — StockStory
12. The Morning Brief: October 15, 2026 — The Morning Brief (Substack)

• Every trading day at 9:00 AM ET, before the 9:30 AM open, we read index futures, overnight markets, economic data, earnings and the news, and publish the chance that the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Dow and Russell 2000 close higher, the expected move to the day’s high and low, and stocks with a catalyst that day.
• At 10:00 AM ET a second call follows, from the same research plus how the first 30 minutes traded — to see how much a forecast improves once the market is open.
• Each call is measured from the moment it could be acted on: the 9 AM call from the 9:30 AM open, the 10 AM call from the minute it went public. “To the high” is the rise from that price to the session’s highest price; “to the close”, to the closing price.
• A call is “up” at 55% or more and “down” at 45% or less; in between it is not scored. Direction is right when the S&P 500 ETF’s close beats (or trails) the previous close. A stock reaches its target when its move from the measuring point to the high — to the low for a “down” call — is at least the target.
• Prices are regular-session prices of the index ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM) and the stocks. Results are live while the market trades and final after the close; every past day stays online with its results.