Challenges

Prop firm pass odds

Plays out a challenge under its firm's rules before you pay for one — on a strategy's real days, one evaluation started on every session of the newest prices, or with trades drawn at random from numbers you describe.

Your strategy

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About Pass odds

Pass odds plays a challenge out under its firm’s rules before you pay for one. Pick a firm, a plan and a strategy: a challenge is started on every session of the newest real futures prices and played trade by trade until it passes, fails or runs out of days.

The share that passed is shown next to a coin-flip baseline — the same trades with a random direction. A strategy that can’t beat the coin flip has no edge yet. You can also draw trades at random from a win rate and sizes you describe.

Questions

How are the pass odds worked out?

By replaying history, not by guessing. A challenge is started on every session of the newest real futures prices and played out trade by trade under the firm’s rules until it passes, fails or runs out of days. The share that passed is shown next to the coin-flip baseline.

What is the coin-flip baseline?

The same trades, at the same times and sizes, with the direction picked at random. A strategy that passes no more often than that adds nothing over luck.

Does a high pass rate mean I will pass?

No. It shows how often the rules passed on past sessions. Markets change, fees add up, and the one challenge you pay for is a single draw, not the average.

Which firms and markets does it cover?

Apex Trader Funding, Topstep, Take Profit Trader, MyFundedFutures, Tradeify and FundedNext Futures, on 13 futures markets, buying, shorting or both ways.

Educational tool, not investment advice. Futures carry substantial risk of loss. Market reads and backtests use past prices (real futures where available, index ETFs scaled to futures points before that) and are not a promise of future results. Prop-firm rules as published on each firm’s site on the date shown — they change often; check the firm’s site before you buy. Prop firms ban automated trading in evaluations: alerts here tell you what the rules say, you place every order yourself.